and thanks for all the well wishes and support...fun stuff!

Awesome write-up ship. I haven't enjoyed following anything this closely since stads played at Augusta.

Hopefully there'll be more of these experiences and you'll be willing to share!

Had a few questions, if you don't mind:

1. What's one of the surprising perks that competitors get at the event that us plebs may find fascinating?

2. What do you think a true scratch golfer would shoot on that course in tourney conditions?

Good run. Hopefully it helps him improve for the next time.

Thanks for the report, that's pretty cool.

Great write up and insight.

Is the kid going to read this? It was a brutally honest assessment, and I am sure it will sting a little bit for him to look back on the two days and realize how a bad stretch of holes basically sank his battleship.

On the other hand, you guys seem to have a great relationship, and, from what you have written previously, he seems like the type of kid that welcomes your input and will really benefit from it.

Ship, I was looking at his drives, it looks like he bombs it. Was he keeping up with the pros? Seems like that is his strength? The other stuff should come with maturity and fine grooming, right? It seems like he has his head screwed on right, combined with that talent, should lead to some great results. Good luck to you two.

Everyone got a brand new Benz, Will included, for the week. I know that it’s obvious they get courtesy cars, but a parking lot full of brand new Benz’s is pretty cool looking. Other than that, it is simply any and all product you could dream of. You name it, they have it. It was a challenging week for hotels with the Oscars going on, but the PGA Tour runs a great event. They had a list of literally every single room in LA on file and hooked us up. It’s an amazing organization.

I really think a scratch would shoot a pretty big number. The best they would do is probably about 80. There is simply NO room for error. Will won the college deal by 5 and most of those kids shot about 75-77. They are likely +4 handicaps or so. The worst a scratch would shoot is probably about 90???? I mean I assume a scratch is proficient at something. You just really can’t appreciate how every single error is penalized. To make a par you literally have to hit 4 consecutive good shots, anything less is a bogey. The winning score was -6 in perfect weather with really little rough. #1 is a par five that Will hit 3 wood 7 iron to. That’s obviously a major championship par 4 so the winning score was really -1….that’s a U.S. Open score WITHOUT ROUGH!!!!!

It was simply impossible to get the ball close to the hole. Birdies were pure luck for the most part on anything other than the par fives.
That is literally exactly what I sent him. I actually did expand a tad on the positives to takeaway that I’ll post here later. He asked me in the car on the way out of the course what he needs to do to win out there. I said “hold on bud cuz this is probably going to sting”. I then told him everything you read and sent this to him later to reinforce the ideas. It does sting for sure, but he doesn’t need a “yes man”, he needs actionable advice.

I do think he is receptive to it, and he’s seen how much he’s improved since we started really getting serious working together. It would be silly for him to get his feelings hurt, he’s better than I ever was and I’m just giving him advice that I think can help him. Clearly I’m not trying to be mean, but sometimes the truth hurts.

He bombs it. He was hitting 3 wood past everyone he played with for the most part. He just needed to be a little more patient on the three putts and he would have made the cut. If he combines that with being more patient on the poor back nine stretch Thursday he not only makes the cut, he’s contending.

He does need to tighten up some things in his game, but regardless he is as close to a sure thing as you can get.

a sure thing...to be what?

what's a fair O/U pga tour win total that you'd hesitate to bet either side?

I mean, 0.5?

bc I'm reading that as you saying he could be top 100ish as a floor, and ______(10+ career wins?) as a ceiling.

He's 18 years old, still learning, bombs it, has a great coach/mentor, seems to be focused on golf, just missed a cut in a stacked field on a tough course... I'm guessing he's a force on tour.

He's one of the best amateurs in the world and has the best extraordinary skill, hits it a mile. I would take that every day of the week over short game at his age. How many people get longer as they get older?

The kid that plays out of my club that is somehow rated higher than Will hits it nowhere. I would take Will's skillset 100 times out of 100 over his.

The reason I phrased it the way I did is because there is no sure thing in golf. I haven't seen nearly enough of the other top amateurs in the game play, but I simply refuse to believe any of them hit the ball better. Anyone can get hot with a putter but not everyone can flush it day in and day out. Will can and does.

When you do that it is simply really hard to ever play terrible golf. As he gets more experience and eliminates the silly bogeys he made last week will be a guy who makes a ton of cuts. After that it simply is about waiting out the hot streaks with the putter and collecting your millions.

I agree with your assessment of floor. I just don't think once he gets a card he will ever lose it, barring injury or Tiger style yips. If I had to place a line that would make me think it would be 7.5 wins. I'd take the over, but I wouldn't be in love with the bet.

Cool read and nice going ship. You're doing a lot of good stuff it seems with this kid/golf in general congrats.

But 7.5 wins as an O/U is pretty darn ridiculous. I imagine you could get insane odds from a sports book if you proposed that to one of them.

Gerry McIlroy did and won.

Yeah lots of sports books will give you odds on a proposed bet.

+1 Great thread, good luck out there.

First, thanks NxT.

I fully agree that 7.5 is a huge line. I simply think he will leave school early and get a card from his nine likely starts. After that winning every other year for a long time is at a minimum within his reach. I guess if I had to set a "real" what would I bet line factoring all the risks it would be much lower. I'm talking a theoretical he's healthy for a full career win rate.

I think he's more talented than any young gun on Tour right now. I wasn't viewing the question as a real what would you bet scenario as there is no line I would bet....I'll be dead by the time his career is over!

I was approaching it as what do I think a healthy career
expectation for him would be. And that, I do think is a world class Potential

I'd take even money on 3+ wins in his 20's.

Wow. Wake Forest alum here (2007). Just seeing this thread for first time, despite reading this forum for a while. This is very cool. Looking forward to more updates, Ship.

How is Will liking Wake, aside from the golf side? Do you guys get into that?

Has he met Arnie yet?

Demon, did you play golf there?

I did, but with my friends on the public courses nearby.

Love that I got someone to follow now, and the inside info from Ship.

wow.


nah, pga tour courses are long. you'll be walking 5 miles a day for a while. seems like you'll stay in shape



what NxT said. lol

at the very worst, you (and by you, I mean WE) can make a bunch of money betting him to top20 or in 3-ball bets in the future until books adjust. hahahaha

let's say you knew you'd live long enough to collect and enjoy the money, what odds would you think are fair for him to win a major?

25:1?

more? less?

lastly (and the last time I'll bring up gambling most likely), how is the tour in regards to that? I know many/most pros gamble it up a lot, would he or you get into trouble if it got out you put down money on him to win at 500:1 or whatever?

Is it illegal for an amateur to bet on himself for a tournament? Or is that regarded as prize money and not allowed?

I mean, who is gonna know?

but then that answers my q's too

Ship's gotta believe in his horse. I think the 0.5 O/U is actually more realistic, and as Ship has said, there are no sure things in golf. But, let's hope things turn out great.

Which elite amateurs never won on tour?

Chris Patton, Ty Tryon.

http://www.usga.org/ChampEventConten...id=21474864256