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Originally Posted by REDeYeS00
obviously i haven't dug into the shots gain stats like you have, but are the majority of the swings as you say? (either -0.5 or +0.2)?
what i'm wondering, based on what you may have found in your data collection, is if there are unique circumstances that can occur which result in the delta between negative and positive strokes gained to be much higher than the typical ring game expectation, therefore making the situation worth considering taking on the additional risk and breaking from the ring game grind (the strat of collecting dozens of tiny edges along the way and not exposing yourself to larger risk swings) to push a potential edge.
not sure if you watched the tourney today or have seen the highlights, but Will's second shot decision on hole 2 today was a questionable one and somewhat of an example of what i'm thinking. took a risk on his second shot, didn't pull it off, and it cost him two strokes. in a vacuum it seemed like a very poor decision at the time, but in certain circumstances it may seem like the better choice.
Will's shot on 2 was a horrific decision. Collin Swatton texted me as he was doing it "this is dumb" right when you heard the ball hit the tree and go OB. That, IMO, was solely because it is a reachable par 5 and he's thinking he needs to get it back up near the green to get a look at birdie. It WAS a birdie hole (and I hate that saying) back on the teebox, it is no longer a birdie hole now.
There are two places you can increase variance a decent amount while not destroying your average score. Off the tee on barely reachable par 4's with hazards too much in play and similar second shots on par fives. You can make quite a few more birdies to offset the increase in bogies. There are spots I would say you can do this & it be correct.
BUT, just being more aggressive on your average 6-9 iron second shot to tuck pins WILL NOT increase your birdie rate while also making more bogies. That kind of aggression is why many guys are stuck on the Korn Ferry. Hilariously, IMO, I have worked with 11 players tied for 12th or higher on the Korn Ferry Tour today. I'd bet my life they ALL said "**** it, I'm committing to DECADE so hard this week. If Will can do it, I can too."
As for the .2 to -.5 approach shots that is a popular range, but it also is a huge range. The best players have the fewest -.5 shots. Now, that is relatively obvious since it is essentially saying "the best players hit the fewest really bad shots" but when I go through ShotLink for my midrange players they have way too many -.4-.6 approach shots with a relatively benign pin from like 130. Those are typically shots where they are trying to force a look with a gap wedge to a pin 3 from the edge instead of targeting 3ish yard toward the middle. Getting line and distance to match up and stuff it is simply a hard thing to intentionally do and most are just variance. Yes the better players have tighter shot patterns, but it's not like they are 50% smaller.