I propose the following prop bet to anyone reading willing to accept it:
In 7 weeks starting from 5/12/2017, I need to:
lose at least 6% body fat
play 162 hours from 5/12 - 5/31
play 200 hours from 6/1 - 6/30
win at least $600 (15 BI) pre-rakeback in the progress of completing above hours objectives
Odds will be 6-1 which seems realistic given how near-impossible it seems for me to succeed. Most people ITT are saying there's no way I can reach 200 hours but instead of listening to them I'm making the challenge even harder by now having to play 162h in only 20 days, adding an extra 200h in June and doing all that simultaneously to a very rough diet to lose 6% body fat in 7 weeks which means even more stress on body and mind and even higher chance of failure.
I'll take bets from min. your $60 vs my $10 to max. your $600 vs my $100.
Anyone has the chance to bet from today till 5/17. Obv I won't update my poker and diet progress till 5/17 while registration to the prop bet is still open.
Escrow will be jspill or any other reputable 2+2 member.
More details/terms:
Prop bet starts 5/12 at 10pm PHT and ends 6/30 at 10pm PHT. As I'm posting this it hasn't started yet and I'm still at zero hours and zero profit.
Determination of hours played: Bluegrassplayer has agreed to be the unbiased judge for counting the hours via Teamviewer by looking at the logs of hands played. The logs are directly on the poker site and show times and dates of all individual hands I play.
Determination of winnings pre-rakeback: The poker site has logs showing daily winnings/losses that I'll show you and Bluegrassplayer via teamviewer to check for yourself.
Decision whether I succeed or fail the losing 6% body fat challenge: As body fat is hard to measure, I'm posting video footage (proving it's not photoshopped) of myself holding a current newspaper (proving it's not old footage). By 6/30 10pm I must post the same type of video footage with same lighting conditions and same camera angle. Bluegrassplayer will be the unbiased judge to estimate my body fat % of 5/12 (video below) and 6/30, using below body fat chart for reference. For example if I'm now 18% I need to go down to 12% or less. It's up to his judgement what my current body fat % is.
Starting point on first day of the bet (today):
To take the bet, reply and say your amount you want to bet. I'll quote it and accept it within 12 hrs, then we escrow the bets to jspill via Skrill, Bitcoin, Paypal or any other payment options jspill accepts.
Last edited by Bluegrassplayer; 05-12-2017 at 09:09 PM.
I'm not gonna massively hurt my EV at the poker tables by doing this prop bet (and chances that I'll win the prop bet are still extremely slim) for less than 6-1.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bernie68
and each of the lines you say is an independant goal like the may hours are not to be combined into may+june
Yes, they are 4 independent goals, and I have to achieve all 4 of them or I lose the bet.
Last edited by Info Shove; 05-12-2017 at 01:01 AM.
your 100 for 350 ; if people want to give you 6/1 action for more than symbolic sums, I ll be surprised
at 6/1 I am happy to join your side on the offer if the order book gets larger interest !
so the present market for your prop bet is 3.5 to 6 100 x 200 for present bid and ask sizes
what getting Hi means? Why would it be time to drop her?
Hi - So, short for High Society. Essentially a Hi - So girl is the same thing as a high maintenance girl.
Has it really been that long since we had our last Hi - So girl discussion that you were not yet a member here Lonelybox? Perhaps it has been.
Obviously in this case I was mostly joking, since she was just asking about plates. Although her behavior is already starting to go in some directions that should be raising some red flags for InfoShove imo.
I don't understand your post but the answer remains 'No'. I won't go lower than 6-1. I'm pretty sure 3.5 to 1 is a -EV bet for me, my chance to win the bet is extremely slim. Maybe 10%, what do you guys think?
I don't understand your post but the answer remains 'No'. I won't go lower than 6-1. I'm pretty sure 3.5 to 1 is a -EV bet for me, my chance to win the bet is extremely slim. Maybe 10%, what do you guys think?
If you think you only have a 10% chance of winning then 6-1 is also a -ev bet for you to make.
Obviously I think it's over 10% hence I'm making the bet but I wanna know what you think. I may be biased/deluded.
What I think doesn't matter all that much, as I'm never taking either side of the bet no matter what the odds. I have a personal principal that I really only ever bet on myself, something I'm doing, something I have control over my performance in. I don't bet on other people's performance in something unless it's literally a gimme bet.
Like if I could get even money on the Golden State Warriors to beat some random High School team I'd take that bet, and I've actually taken even money bets that were essentially that good in the past. But aside from absurd situations like that I don't bet on other people's performances in anything, only on my own.
All that being said, from what I've seen it's usually not a good idea to bet against someone doing something when they are the ones telling you what they will do and creating all the circumstances and parameters for just exactly how they will do it.
If it wasn't for the GF, I'd say betting against you at 6-1 here is a terrible idea and should only be made by those who like to burn/donate money.
The GF makes it much more interesting though and so perhaps even 6-1 should be taken.
Asked jspill to escrow since I don't have skill, netteller etc. If it's done by paypal or crypto I'd be happy to
A few clarifications I'd like made since I'm arbitrating: limits need to be agreed upon for what hands can be played at. I don't think it would be a problem but with the way rules are written now it's possible you go on a rush get up enough and then just blind away at 1c 2c for 100 hours, or the opposite could happen: you get the hours in but are down and with a few hours left you jump into 5 10. All hands need to be played at a set limit(s).
For weigh in: you absolutely must eat and drink water and NOT drink any alcohol the day before weigh in. I'd also request that you send another video 2 days after to make sure that your bf% looks about the same.
I don't think there will be any takers for more than 3:1 tbh, although I'm fairly sure you'll lose the fitness challenge regardless.
Also you're on your way to being her ***** already. Asian girls are power grabbing pros.
Threatening anyone with violence is not cute and just makes her look like a crazy ***** that will come down to your place and stab you to death when you don't text back in an hour.
I personally would ditch her as this screams trouble.
I don't think there will be any takers for more than 3:1 tbh, although I'm fairly sure you'll lose the fitness challenge regardless.
Also you're on your way to being her ***** already. Asian girls are power grabbing pros.
Threatening anyone with violence is not cute and just makes her look like a crazy ***** that will come down to your place and stab you to death when you don't text back in an hour.
I personally would ditch her as this screams trouble.
Ask k2d about setting clear expectations.
K2D doesn't do relationships period, he isn't the guy to ask about how to set expectations and parameters in one.
Asked jspill to escrow since I don't have skill, netteller etc. If it's done by paypal or crypto I'd be happy to
A few clarifications I'd like made since I'm arbitrating: limits need to be agreed upon for what hands can be played at. I don't think it would be a problem but with the way rules are written now it's possible you go on a rush get up enough and then just blind away at 1c 2c for 100 hours, or the opposite could happen: you get the hours in but are down and with a few hours left you jump into 5 10. All hands need to be played at a set limit(s).
For weigh in: you absolutely must eat and drink water and NOT drink any alcohol the day before weigh in. I'd also request that you send another video 2 days after to make sure that your bf% looks about the same.
This is not a 2p2 sanctioned event etc etc.
All hands will be played at the same stake which converted to USD is $0.4 big blind.
Yes I'll eat normally just as I've eaten normally before taking today's video.
Thanks for pointing those things out. If anyone has any other question or would like something clarified please ask.
So either you guys thinking that are missing out on a profitable bet or my chance of getting my dick cut is higher than 14%? 😦
given the lack of action so far, you have your answer
plenty of cabbage there in the Phils for her to make sauerkraut with that schwanz of yours when cut off