Itt: I never said 14% isn't significant, I think you've missed my point. Fwiw those are clearly very rough numbers so if the change was only 14% you couldn't draw much of a conclusion from them.

Jeff: the problem is that every murder is a drug related murder now. Every article reads "1900 dead in 2 months due to dutertes war on drugs!" Or something similar, which makes it sound like all 1900 murders are a result of dutertes taking office. Apparently 1666 of those deaths were happening on average every 2 months before duterte took office so the majority of those "drug related deaths" are actually just ratchet Philippines standard murders. People obviously have a huge incentive now to say "yeah of course that girl leaving choir practice was a drug user and drug pusher!" and also since people are getting away with that now other people have extra reason to murder someone if they were ever afraid of getting caught because now they've got the easiest alibi ever.

Well, it's tough to say exactly how many of the homicides are drug related, but by the PNP's own admission the overall homicide/murder rate has skyrocketed(+55% for July only) since Duterte took office. If people are committing murders and using vigilantism as a defense, then those murders are on Duterte whether they're actually drug-related or not.

Agree 100%

Thanks, thats enough I go with Cebu pacific.

Do you think this has effect on tourist safety in Phillippines? Srys if it's stupid question I haven't followed the situation much.

I doubt it.

The 2000 deaths are either police shooting. Vigilante style gunman or abandoned bodies with "pusher" signs. I.e. all potentially linked to the drug war.

Doesnt include all the regular murders, still going on etc.

Its clearly not just different counting

Please show an article which makes the distinction between a murder and a "drug related death" (which would be a new way of counting)

It's all "1900 dead since duterte took office"

http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/28/1...la-sa-magdamag

This one is in tagalog, was reading it for homework this morning, but google translate does a decent job of it if you want to look on your own.

My not great translation.

---
The total of those killed in the government campaign against illegal drugs has now reached 1233, according to the list maintained by the ABS-CBN Investigative and Research Group, from May 10th to August 28.

Of the total, 742 were killed in police operations, 392 were murdered by unknown assailants and 99 were found abandoned away from the original crime scene.

---

Tracking records like this is hard enough in the US, let alone in the Philippines, so these numbers presumably only count those that ABS have verified themselves, with a range of other numbers being thrown around.

Working on confusing numbers, but given your number 1666 includes all murders, stabbing, beatings, domestics, etc, i cant see how you you could say that 1,233 recorded deaths of three very narrow types in a similar period, isnt a massive increase.

Decent article on Rappler on the stats. Fwiw - they are providing great coverage what is happening.

http://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/iq/...urder-homicide

No real clear takeaways on the stats other than, its hard to draw any real conclusions because the data is very messy, and that the government is at worst deliberately misleading the enquiry, and at best being pretty careless with how it presents numbers.

On the surface it suggests the murder rate is a little down, but in line with broader patterns, no idea whether they count police shootings as murders.

Thanks for the links. Sat there gawking at the stupidity in the rappler graph for too long, wish I'd just read the article right away. I don't believe either of those articles is differentiating between "drug related deaths" and murders. Google translate of the first article: A total of 1,233 individuals were killed in the midst of a government campaign against criminality and illegal drugs. "criminality and illegal drugs" that's pretty much a catch all for anything.

In the second article everything is referred to as "murder and homicide cases" which is clearly not differentiating between murders and homicides and "drug related deaths."



Also just to clarify on my post upthread: That was very rough estimates of MURDERS (not murders, stabbings, beatings, domestics, etc) per 100,000 over a 5 year period. Like I said, those are very rough numbers. If you want to look at 2015's statistics according to that graph in the rappler article: 12,481 murder and homicide cases (lowest in the last 3 years btw) then the average murders per month is 1040, not 833. So 2080 in two months would actually put Duterte's 1900 murders below last year's average. (once again lowest in 3 years.) So not only would that not be a massive increase, it'd be a decrease.


I doubt that's the case personally, but either way it goes to prove my point that the media is largely engaged in sensationalist headlines to get some extra clicks. Also not even somewhat convinced that there's been a surge of "drug related deaths/murders."

what hourly $ or bb/100 are people achieving in the manila nlhe games? or what can one exepct to achieve?


And happy bday BGP. what ya do for it?

lol if you think your wikipedia numbers prove anything

I played live poker in cebu a week ago. In my opinion, the new regime isnt going to change poker much. But i will say, everything still applies as it did a year ago. Smile a lot (important here), appear humble and not cocky, and if they ask what you had say something. Many of these guys ask to see what you had and they do it with each other often. Its not vegas, dont be afraid to give them some info. It aint gonna help them much and youll seem like a nice guy(whether you are or not)

lol thanks, no big plans. Got sick in Thailand, got back to Philippines and recovered then got the flu so I'm just resting.

Mateo:

meant to quote your post and accidentally edited it. oops. Anyways, you can feel free to respost it.

So, I'm kinda confused by your post. Even in the post you quoted, I state that the wikipedia numbers are very rough (ie not reliable at all). I also said that throughout this conversation. They were just meant as a quick starting point and not to be taken as hard proof... as I repeated several times. So if you wanted to add something to the conversation you failed miserably.

Dude - its right there in the post - the 1200 are 700 plus police shootings, 300 plus unknown assailant style killings, and 100 abandoned bodies...

That's not in any way a catch all for anything...

u take a rest and drink plenty of water to recover your strengths

Here is what you first said. You are claiming that the articles have separated regular murders/homicides statistics from those homicides/murders associated with the drug war. In both your articles that's clearly not the case.

You are also claiming that there 1900 drug related murders + regular murders/homicides. That's also not the case. It's all murders and homicides.

I'm so confused. Did you read either of my posts?

the 1233 is broken down into deaths that are clearly not all murders. It's right there in both posts...

So... are you claiming that these particular 1200 deaths are claimed to be drug related... and the extra 700 deaths are not?(edit: this is actually a much large time frame, so there'd be an even bigger number than 700)

Because that would be very different from your original statement that all 2000 murders/homicides were drug related and regular murders were not included in that statistic, which is clearly wrong.

Fair enough, it is a different statement. I thought i was pretty clear that getting any numbers on this was pretty difficult for anyone, even the PNP.

ABS will do a decent job based on the data they have, and would say it works as a decent lower bound.

The fact remains that 1233 deaths, with over 700 police shootings, is not in any way, shape or form, just "business as usual being hyped up for clicks"

Well, I'm curious what your point is? Do you think that there's an equilibrium where close to 2000 police/vigilante killings somehow equalize with the murder rate from before 3 months ago?

The rappler report on that lol line graph is plenty of proof that the data (pubicly) available is not credible anyways given this is one of the most corrupt countries in the world.
I don't think anyone doubted this will have (possibly positive) impacts on crime rates in the short term and the president is going to pride himself on that and his supporters will use those stats as justifications for the killings.
You just have to look at how the war on drugs failed in South/Latin America to realize people's claims that things are changing for the better are extremely short sighted.

I have no idea how the police shootings would work into this tbh. That does seem high, but over it's a 4 month period and it's the Philippines... honestly don't know if that's an outrageous amount or not.

As far as the homicides... I'm still convinced that yeah the Philippines was that ****ty before.

Also never claimed that the entire thing is "business as usual." I'm just saying that the vast majority of it is blown out of proportion. Every article I've read from a major news outlet has framed its wording to make it sound like every murder in the Philippines since Duterte took office is due to his new drug policy. That's totally bull****.

Matteo, here are my points:

Most people in Philippines live in a Philippines bubble where they have a "feels safe" and "wow Filipinos are super nice" attitude. They have no clue how ****ty the rest of the country is. Almost everyone living outside of the country has no clue how ****ty the country is.

Media sees new president take office, and combines that with the current murder rate to get some clicks. No one would click "New president in Philippines" and no one would click "1900 dead in 2 months in Philippines." Lots of people are interested by "New President kills 1900 in 2 months" however.

This gives the impression that the president is actually responsible for killing 1900 people in 2 months. I THINK THATS TOTALLY BULL****. Most of those deaths are from ratchet Philippines being super ratchet, and if Duterte hadn't taken office then you'd see the majority of those deaths anyways, and probably no one would think about it.

I believe that his speeches are going to stir just about 0 civilians into murdering other civilians.

Most of the increased "drug related" crimes that are seen now, are actually bull****. If anyone says "uh yeah they were a drug dealer" then they have a good chance with getting away with murder, so why wouldn't they say that? This is going to lead to a huge number of untried cases and wrongly closed cases, but they aren't actually drug related. It's the Philippines equivalent of "Sprinkle some crack on him! Open and shut case Johnson." (and no, I'm not saying that there's no drug crimes going on. I'm saying the huge increase which is going to show up in statistics is totally bull****)



I'm not claiming that anything is changing for the better, and I'm definitely not claiming the war on drugs is good for the Philippines.

If only there was a group of people, like human rights activists, journalists, lawyers, supreme court judges, ambassadors, etc, who knew more than you.

Maybe they could weigh in and help you out...

... oh wait.