One of the few spots where physical reads can make a huge difference in your bottomline longterm results... How fast did Villain make the first call? Would likely stop to consider raising KQ at least a little bit, imo... Did he seem at all nervous making the reraise? I know it sounds silly to ask these questions, but live poker is live poker, and once you've exhausted all other forms of analysis, sometimes it's literally time to just try and soul read a guy.
Flatting pre is ok but seems kinda meh since we're playing a mw pot where it's like impossible for us to make the nuts and a flop like this or 3 diamonds could end up costly for us. I like isolating here but in game could see myself just overlimping.
If he was the type to play combo draws fast, he certainly would have raised the initial lead rather than flat/backraise here imo. Obv on such a nutty board sets should raise also and might be concerned about our raise once they flat and we do this. Seems like he is clearly trapping. So.. his range is heavily weighted towards 78/Q8/KQ.. I guess we're 50/50 vs that range, but I think we're far more likely to see KQ here than 78. Pretty legit tough spot..
Correct me pls if this is poorly analysed but I stoved our equity vs KQs, KQo, and Q8o and 78o. I cut out the suited 78/Q8s because I think Q8/78 are less likely than KQ and our equity is the same vs. suited/offsuit variations unless he happens to have the Jesus redraw. We have 43% equity considering that frequency of Q8 and 78 which is pretty close. If we throw in 99 only (since I think a set is somewhat unlikely due to limp pre and initial flat) we are up to 46%. I still think the KQ frequency is probably higher.. ughh
The flop call is what has me bugged. Did he have a very good reason to suspect that you would raise there? I just can't put him on KQ with that.
Agree with this.
He suddenly wants to protect the nuts now but he was cool flatting and potentially going to the turn ways? There are so many bad turn cards if he flopped KQ without a redraw. I guess KQhh makes sense where he was fine letting a turn peel but now that you've shown interest he figures you will just get the rest in.
Doubt I'm folding. Iso pre tho imo. It is just a personal thing but I don't like overlimping with hands that make second best hands against likely hands bad players will limp with initially. If that makes sense.
can you give any more details about HOW he raised? timing/demeanor/etc.? did he announce the raise size, or did he just pull back the 600 and throw in the chips?
Hmm.. Hard to recall. I'm pretty sure he flatted the 600 pretty quick without much thought and then when it got back to him he raised without announcing it.
One thing I forgot to mention is that the guy who bet 600 and myself both had a LAG image (though I was playing a bit tighter than him). That made me think that villain might do this with less than KQ.
The comments about raising Q8s makes sense.
Thanks to all who have replies. I am more of a cash player and sometimes feel lost in tourney decisions.
lol at including AA in his range and a draw is also a big stretch for most live guys, esp when they get such a great price to flat and hand is 4way. i dont think we can ever assume that without more info.
even if he plays a set like this, i dont know how likely it is for him to limp those mid-big pairs in the first place. 87o he could def be folding pre. i dont think a lot of people spazz off with even top two, esp since my standard assumption would be that he is pretty nitty/somewhat passive. i really think you should fold here, since he can reasonably limp KQ + def. can play it this post.
JJ-99,KQs,Q8s,87s,KQo,Q8o - 57.7%
Q8o - 42.3%
if you exclude Q8o from his range its like 60-40. if you add 87o its 47-53, but since KQ is more likely than either 87 or a set imo i would just puke fold. btw if you add JT you have 57.9% but that is a very optimistic range to me.
and i really dont think he ever shows up with a draw here if hes anything like an average live old guy.
I think that I'm going to have to agree with the folks that are leaning towards a fold here, although its extremely close. Against an old nit in the ME who has made an extreme over bet I cry inside and throw my cards in the muck. It makes it extremely tough bc you would assume he would raise KQ pre flop and its also tricky bc why does he flat call the initial post flop bet? I guess that flop hits a lot of limped multi way pot hands.
Fold preflop. Fold to overbet. Without read, he shouldn't be doing that with a set or combo draw. Think he has nuts and is protecting it against draws. Probably some nit afraid to be outdrawn. Don't get manipulated into playing for stacks.
but he is NOT protecting - he initially flatted.
i think it is unlikely he foresaw another limping raising behind..