Day 1b of ME. Villain is an older guy. Seemed pretty tight and wasn't involved in many hands so thats what made this decision even harder because I had a read on everyone else except for him. All I know is that he wasn't good.

I have been fairly active. Raising a lot both post and pre flop and being aggressive overall.

This is the third level blinds are 150 - 300. I have about 26k so thats about 86 BB's.

UTG + 2 limps, UTG+3 (Villain) limps, I limp in Hijack with Qd8d, BB checks.

Flop comes 9hTcJc (1350)

BB checks, UTG+2 bets 600 (he was playing very LAG), Villain flats, I raise to 1500, UTG+2 calls, and to my surprise villain makes it 11k.

Hero??? I tanked forever.

If I fold i still have about 24k left which isn't bad and I can try to make it thru day 1 and find better spots.

Calling leaves me with 14k. I thought about calling in case he had KQ, that way if the board pairs and he checks I can shove and try to rep a boat.

And of course there is shoving the rest in and hoping to get called by worse.

Thoughts?

probably not folding you lose to KQ and there are FDs/Set that still would do this.

Fold pre. As played shove and expect to get called by worse.

and this I just have no words for:

no.

I would think he would raise pre with 9s-Js but some might people might limp. Very odd he wouldnt raise flop initially with kq but I still don't think he's going to do this without the nuts.

Seeing some of the hands on poker news I know people show up with weird crap. Unless you've seen him make constant overbets, I would let this go. A tight player is happy to call with flush draws and won't overplay 78 or set on this board on limped pot.

Fold preflop. Fold to overbet. Without read, he shouldn't be doing that with a set or combo draw. Think he has nuts and is protecting it against draws. Probably some nit afraid to be outdrawn. Don't get manipulated into playing for stacks.

if he was worried about being outdrawn he would reraise vs a small 600 bet multiway on this board bc by just calling he allows all draws to just call.

Kinda gross but too strong to fold I think. Your raisesize on the flop is way too small for this kind of texture over such a small bet and a call. I'd play 2200 for the raisesize and go broke unless two people are overexcited and get it in.

Why are you guys wanting to fold preflop?

Both of these.

+1

Not folding preflop, either. Too many clowns in this circus.

wouldnt mind raising pre.......as played I think its a fold - we're a dog to sets/kq obv, and even throwing in one 2 pr combo I think we're around a flip.....alot of older live guys aren't doing this with bottom 2 pr/worse imo in the wsop main

yeah, don't see the big deal about pre. I know people want to exclude KQ because he didn't raise initially. You need to loosen your assumptions when dealing with randoms since some people don't event want to get it on this board with the stone cold nuts vs a flush draw. Or he might also just be thinking he's slowplaying and it'll be too obvious if he raises this board that he has the nuts.

Example, 1K WSOP tourney, guy calls a raise with Q9s and flops 810Jdd. Guy goes all in and then asian guy with the nuts ask, does he have me covered? Dealer counts the chips and then after deliberating for 20 seconds, he calls. He then runs over to his buddies railing him and excitedly says, "i flop the nuts but flush draw scare me."

If you're read is he's a maniac and not scared money, then yeah, snap call. Based on read that he's tight player, snap fold.

Why r we a dog to sets? Tough spot, I think old man rivers could easily take this line with 78 suited tho

We have 33% equity against KQ,JJ,TT,99

forgot about 78 and cant edit my post - die

lol at folding preflop

tought spot for sure but like most people said not folding imo

Raise>Fold>Call preflop.

As played I'm not folding...

Tight range that is spazzing out on some big draws-
Hand 0: 62.004% 58.39% 03.62% 28324 1754.00 { Qd8d }
Hand 1: 37.996% 34.38% 03.62% 16678 1754.00 { AA, JJ-99, AQs+, A9s, KQs, 87s, KQo, 87o }


Tight range that is not spazzing out on all draws
Hand 0: 60.110% 56.39% 03.72% 24007 1582.00 { Qd8d }
Hand 1: 39.890% 36.17% 03.72% 15399 1582.00 { AA, JJ-99, AKs, KQs, 87s, KQo, 87o }

Sick spot... think it comes down to feeling at the table. I know that's somewhat of a cop out, but I think it's true... you're live, you have some history with this guy, you can look at him, etc. Whatever your first instinct is that's probably correct. Against some people's ranges you're in great shape here, and against other people's ranges you're basically drawing dead. So... live read FTW IMO.

P.S. WTF on the "fold pre" advice?... we're 86bb deep overlimping in position with Q8s... I can see preferring a raise to a call (altho I think call is fine), but hand is obv playable.

You flop the 2nd nuts on a really wet board and are scared to get it in now?? Honestly I'm surprised so many are saying this is a tough spot. Without knowing much about Villain there's no way you can fold this.

If he was some nit scared to be outdrawn, he would not flat call that flop 3-handed OOP. His hand looks like some sort of combo draw that smelled weakness and wants to "take it down right now." So Villain's overbet = scared to get called, not get outdrawn.

Also, raise more on that flop.

This man has the nuts. You should fold.

The more I think about it, the more I like folding. The field is soft, villain shows up with the nuts here a lot and you are not committed in any way. I would sigh-pass and never tell a soul.

hands that are also possible:

AQ suited - this would have got raised pre imo first and foremost. if he chose to limp he would pry re-raise immediately post flop to more often than not (9/10). if he limps kq its def not kq with the royal flush draw in this spot, hes never playing it that hard if he does he cray. he would also raise kq suited pre at least some of the time pre, hes old (5/10). Also, we do have a queen guys, dont weight tooooo much on that fact but with us holding a queen, odds suggest it is less likely he is holding one to.

He could limp q8 suited. possibility of this exact combo is also a bit slimmer because its our exact hand. Old man could easily show up with this hand tho, as 78 suited

sets im def weighting 99 harder than 10 10 and im weighting JJ less than them both. Hes raising jj pre atleast (8/10), 1010 (7/10), 99(5.5/10), even old man. I think its also a strong chance he raises the initial raiser post flop at this point in time with these hands.

once u flat and the other flat, i would think he would atleast contemplate upping the action with most the hands i mentioned. Whether its the stonecold nuts or the third nuts, or huge semi-draw.

what scares me is the sizing and stacks. It is a very confident bet it seems, he is throwing out 30 bigs, but again he could have some of the hands mentioned and only one beats us. I used to make good folds but I would not fold here. In 2006 everyone was a nit, now i dont trust anyone, my eyes have been tainted by to much ****. He mite have j10, with a backdoor flush draw, throw this combo in for a measily (2%) chance???? Maybe he overbet the pot to find out where he stood???? So i call.

2nd nuts? All in.

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