1) The Player

Ok background info this is the 215 Sunday Mulligan and its about 3 hrs in and the player who makes the large overbet here I am not lying has a -100% ROI and is down 6000 dollars avg buyin 74 dollars over 76 tournaments played so needless to say this man is capable of anything and he was living up to his spewy image to this point which makes me more inclined to play a big pot with him even with marginal holdings

2) MTTs

Obviously being complacent with your stack wont get you far in MTTs obviously calling off you chips with a draw isn't a part of acquiring chips and winning long term but I think this spot may be different if I can double through a player capable of playing terribly with say maybe AJ where a KQ8 or diamond will give me the best hand and I will be a prohibitive favorite and worst case scenario he flips over 89 and I need one of 3 8s for a chop and have 12 outs twice for the win (15 outs total) for the chiplead of a major NL Tournament which would allow me to run over the table and chip up with ease with no other big stack at the table so with that being said here's the controversial hand that I'm sure every1 will have their opinion on...




Full Tilt Poker Game #6750032582: The Sunday Mulligan (49641845), Table 99 - 150/300 Ante 25 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:41:20 ET - 2008/06/08
Seat 1: loser2202 (28,042)
Seat 2: gershenator1 (16,656)
Seat 3: pairdboard21 (7,911)
Seat 4: Yubaball (24,417)
Seat 5: PacManTXHoldem (3,676)
Seat 6: Libra13 (20,220)
Seat 7: FrankJones (6,040)
Seat 9: cwalk1 (12,495)
loser2202 antes 25
gershenator1 antes 25
pairdboard21 antes 25
Yubaball antes 25
PacManTXHoldem antes 25
Libra13 antes 25
FrankJones antes 25
cwalk1 antes 25
gershenator1 posts the small blind of 150
pairdboard21 posts the big blind of 300
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to gershenator1 [9d Kd]
Yubaball has 15 seconds left to act
Yubaball folds
PacManTXHoldem folds
Libra13 folds
FrankJones folds
MrGERIN sits down
MrGERIN adds 5,025
cwalk1 folds
loser2202 calls 300
gershenator1 has 15 seconds left to act
gershenator1 calls 150
pairdboard21 checks
*** FLOP *** [Td 7d Jc]
gershenator1 has 15 seconds left to act
gershenator1 checks
pairdboard21 checks
loser2202 bets 27,717, and is all in
gershenator1 calls 16,331, and is all in
pairdboard21 folds
loser2202 shows [2d Ad]
gershenator1 shows [9d Kd]
Uncalled bet of 11,386 returned to loser2202
*** TURN *** [Td 7d Jc] [2h]
*** RIVER *** [Td 7d Jc 2h] [7s]
loser2202 shows two pair, Sevens and Twos
gershenator1 shows a pair of Sevens
loser2202 wins the pot (33,762) with two pair, Sevens and Twos
gershenator1 stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 33,762 | Rake 0
Board: [Td 7d Jc 2h 7s]
Seat 1: loser2202 (button) showed [2d Ad] and won (33,762) with two pair, Sevens and Twos
Seat 2: gershenator1 (small blind) showed [9d Kd] and lost with a pair of Sevens
Seat 3: pairdboard21 (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 4: Yubaball folded before the Flop
Seat 5: PacManTXHoldem folded before the Flop
Seat 6: Libra13 folded before the Flop
Seat 7: FrankJones folded before the Flop
Seat 9: cwalk1 folded before the Flop

1) Post your thoughts

2) Vote--- Fold or Call thx

ugly spot. doublegutter, flushdraw, overcard that may be good, your read ... its damn close. we might have a slight equityedge on the flop vs his range, but close to a flip. youve invested 150 in the pot, now are faced with 17125:16000 odds. i fold, as much as it hurts :/

easy call, play for first

dude will have random worse flush draws sometimes too

FYP

Also:

When the pot is laying you better than your equity.

i call, more times then not you are prob winning against that type of villian

Sick, sick hand and result. I call though because of the fact that if you double up, i think your chances of winning/getting very deep more than double, and your $EV is higher as well. Any thoughts on my line of thinking here as it pertains to this hand?

that was my next question should the fact that the villian is as bad as can be possible (i.e. -100% return on his 76 investments) have swayed my decision whether to call or not or is it simply a question of my hand being a draw because I think there's 2 facets that made me make my decision and I wonder how valid they are

1) Doubling here and becoming 2nd in chips in the tournament greatly improves my chances of winning the torny as opposed to waiting for another spot because here i know I have adleast 12 outs twice with 3 addition tie outs against the nuts and depending on his hand ranges up to 18 outs twice which as far as gambling on draws goes is about as good as it gets in holdem

2) If I fold here how confident am I that I will play a pot for 3.5x the average shot and have a legitmate shot to minimize my reliance on luck (i.e. be able to withstand bad beats and lost coinflips and still go on to win) and i didn't think I would have many more opportunities on average to attain a "big" stack" which would enable me to withstand variance so that coupled with the element above made me believe gambling in this spot will perhaps give me the "BEST" opportunity to go on to win even though all I have is a draw and great holdem players pride themselves on being a prohibitive favorite and not drawing or calling off chips on draws

does that makes sense because I think that's logicalistically sound no?

youre right! was unconcetrated yesterday while multitabling. dk what was going trough my mind, but calling is clearly +chipEV, and therefore +$ev at this stage, no reason to get out :/ thx for fmp!

Given the fact that the player is bad I fold.

You should be able to get lots of chances to take the player's stack where you don't have to hope to draw out.