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High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of high stakes MTT hands and techniques

 
 
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Old 04-20-2016, 06:59 PM   #26
MUD
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Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 817
Re: Simulated risk of ruin in $1500 WSOP events

Bump for some more bankroll fun for those interested

Input last years Main Event payout structure:

Some results for 103% ROI player with a 25% ITM and who will win it 3 times more often than "average" player decreasing to mincashing 1.5 times more than "average" player.

Plays on their own with 200k roll

Sims 2000.00000
BuyIn 1.00000
BR (in Buyins) 20.00000
ROI % 103.74279
SD 22.11996
Trad. Ruin % 91.86865
Iter. Ruin % 61.10818
Sim. Ruin % 61.85000
Sim. Win % 38.15000

61% of going broke longterm


400k roll:

Results
Sims 2000.00000
BuyIn 1.00000
BR (in Buyins) 40.00000
ROI % 103.74279
SD 22.11996
Trad. Ruin % 84.39848
Iter. Ruin % 37.34209
Sim. Ruin % 37.65000
Sim. Win % 62.35000

$1,000,000 roll

Sims 2000.00000
BuyIn 1.00000
BR (in Buyins) 100.00000
ROI % 103.74279
SD 22.11996
Trad. Ruin % 65.43899
Iter. Ruin % 8.52112
Sim. Ruin % 7.50000
Sim. Win % 92.50000

Finally it would take a $2 million roll to get Risk of Ruin under 1%

Results
Sims 2000.0000000
BuyIn 1.0000000
BR (in Buyins) 200.0000000
ROI % 103.7427880
SD 22.1199635
Trad. Ruin % 42.8226093
Iter. Ruin % 0.7260948
Sim. Ruin % 0.5000000
Sim. Win % 99.5000000
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Old 04-20-2016, 07:28 PM   #27
MUD
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Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 817
Re: Simulated risk of ruin in $1500 WSOP events

If you sold 70% of yourself at 1.3 markup, you would only need an $18,000 roll to get your Risk of Ruin under 1%

Results
Sims 2000.0000000
BuyIn 0.0900000
BR (in Buyins) 20.0000000
ROI % 579.4232933
SD 3.2824284
Trad. Ruin % 84.0094384
Iter. Ruin % 0.9043969
Sim. Ruin % 1.1000000
Sim. Win % 98.9000000

If you sold 50% at 1.3 you'd need $220,000

Sims 2000.0000000
BuyIn 0.3500000
BR (in Buyins) 62.8571429
ROI % 191.1814114
SD 10.9190079
Trad. Ruin % 78.1183753
Iter. Ruin % 0.9443204
Sim. Ruin % 0.9000000
Sim. Win % 99.1000000
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Old 04-20-2016, 07:43 PM   #28
MUD
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Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 817
Re: Simulated risk of ruin in $1500 WSOP events

Now if you want to buy action in this player at 1.3 (all numbers adjusted for markup)

5% pieces for $650 with a 200k roll results in 5% RoR

Sims 2000.0000000
BuyIn 0.0650000
BR (in Buyins) 307.6923077
ROI % 56.7899908
SD 0.9503539
Trad. Ruin % 19.4984184
Iter. Ruin % 4.6063317
Sim. Ruin % 4.6000000
Sim. Win % 95.4000000

You would need a $300k bankroll to get your RoR under 1 % buying those 5% pieces

Sims 2000.0000000
BuyIn 0.0650000
BR (in Buyins) 461.5384615
ROI % 56.7899908
SD 0.9503539
Trad. Ruin % 8.6099193
Iter. Ruin % 0.9886278
Sim. Ruin % 0.5500000
Sim. Win % 99.4500000
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Old 04-21-2016, 01:25 PM   #29
Deuce2High
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 2,596
Re: Simulated risk of ruin in $1500 WSOP events

Cool thread but ROIs for the avg pro are probably around half of what's being used here. Especially with travel and living expenses. Do the sims with a 35% ROI and see what happens.
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