[converted_hand][hand_history]Pacific, $50 Buy-in (1,600/3,200 blinds, 400 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37301080

CO: 240,615 (75.2 bb)
Hero (BTN): 83,579 (26.1 bb)
SB: 65,853 (20.6 bb)
BB: 128,211 (40.1 bb)
MP1: 46,864 (14.6 bb)
MP2: 28,193 (8.8 bb)
MP3: 46,685 (14.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with A A :: ::
3 folds, CO raises to 6,400, Hero calls 6,400, SB folds, BB calls 3,200

Flop: (23,600) 9 Q Q (3 players)
Turn: (23,600) 3 (3 players)
CO bets 13,560, Hero calls 13,560, BB folds

River: (50,720) 5 (2 players)
CO bets 220,255 and is all-in, Hero

decide to post here for better response.
call w nut flush blocker? feels like an aggro reg is overbluffing in ICM spot. He opens like 75% of hands in this spot so he may have lots of bluffs.. Sick ICM spot tho don know how often do I have to be right to call off profitably

Any reason we aren't raising pre?

I don't see how villain doesn't have at least a Queen here. Playing as you did, I'd probably fold.

Would love to know your stats or image -- if you play all your hands like this up until the river (passive), I'd be more inclined to call.

didn't wanna construct a 3b non-AI range at that moment vs the massive CL.. don wanna 3b bluff any hand so don wanna 3b AA... maybe its still fine to 3b some bluffs tho vs him coz hes too wide.. and maybe 3b AA at some frequency. also its an exploitative tarp vs 75%+ opening range

he perceives me as a taggy ICM aware reg 19 14 7 i guess

Fancy play syndrome IMO, its a $55 888 donkament no need to cleave molecules just put in the 3bet.

wrong section I'm reporting like every thread about a midstake- mtt, dunno how hard it is to a)read which mtts are considered high stakes in the sticky and b)for a mod to move it to the appropriate section

If I 3b AA he would fold like 70% of da time. Thinking tarpping w AA w 26bbs shouldn't be considered as FPS w a 20bb stack that may squeeze ship wide-ish. Also it's good from theoretical standpoint to flat AA sometimes to protect the weaker part of my range don wanna get crushed on ace high boards

I know this is not high stakes MTT just intentionally post here for better responses obv. Mod can move to mid stakes if it's not allowed tho

You are not wrong for sure, but if you would ever actually be bluffing this would be the most obvious one ever to do so. The theoretical point is just meh, this exact spot will arise like two times in your lifetime and you could be bluffing twice or have aces twice I just do not buy it.

Flatting pre could be nice if SB or BB likes 3 betting a lot. Readless, I would 3 bet pre. After flatting pre I would not check back on the flop neither, bet / call or bet / fold depending on vilain. You should have some reads at this step of the game.

wtf pre dude

doubt i fold now, if he plays any sort of balanced check range otf we're more likely to block value hands than bluffs

head asplode...OP, your circular thought process makes me dizzy...turn is good.

List of Variables (to consider prior to acting pre.)

1. Your Hand
2. Villain's opening range
3. Eff stacks
4. Stacks behind
...
...
...
34. Am I properly hydrated
...
...
56. Protecting/balancing my flatting range (at 26bbs eff)
...

Since your hand is way so under repped. As played I would call here on the river. I can imagine he would C bet a flush draw on the flop a high percentage of the time. Also he should be betting a queen to stay balanced and you said he is very aggressive. He also opened from the cutoff which means he has a really wide range so he has tons of air in his range and we have the nut flush blocker.

I could see flatting AA, but definitely not on the BTN with large stack raising. If you were UTG+1 and UTG opened then I could see flatting, but dude you're in the perfect spot to be 3 betting here, I'd even consider jamming here as it may look even weaker.

This is not correct in general. You could jam mid pps or big aces (as well as some weaker hands) that might be hard to play postflop against the big stack and for which you don't lose that much when you get a fold. With aces, you would like to encourage a flat call as well as induce. In this situation, you should have plenty of 3-bet bluffs to balance value 3-bets, and the 3-bet does not look strong.

It would be very villain dependant in this scenario.

Excellent threadwin.

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Villain is opening 75%. Yeh, he may think a shove doesn't look strong, but you need a small pp or broadway cards or something to shove. He is not going to have a hand to call with often enough. IMO shoving is worse than flat calling here.

Agreed, but I actually like shoving more than flatting in this particular spot. Flatting is the worst IMO. Like I said if UTG opened and we were UTG+1 then I would say flat. I think most of us agree that 3 betting is the best play here.

blocking nut flush isnt rly imp

Exactly. This isn't 200bb plo.

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It's totally irrelevant, as villain is playing almost all suited cards, not just Axs preflop. Obviously any flush is close to the nuts here.

You are 80% against his preflop range OTR, but obviously not as good against hands he plays that way. He is probably opening almost all Qs and suited cards. Really depends on villain, but it seems like he is playing agro and could be bluffing a lot, so probably have to call down as played.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

710 trials (Exhaustive)

board: qq935

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
75%	18.38%	130	1
ahad	81.62%	579	1

We need to be right ~56% of da time due to ICM. Not sure if he bets turn w no equity bluffs no blocker lol

I would be a little concerned about trips or a boat based on villain's line, which looks like a slow play. Think he would probably cbet a flush draw. Would seem like a little bit unusual line to take as a pure bluff not to cbet and then gii on later streets.