The villain is a good reg, probably somewhere in the middle of the LAG-TAG spectrum. I had a LAG image for a while but lost a bunch of all-ins. What do we like here?


[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $50 Buy-in (200/400 blinds, 40 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #11755872

MP1: 10,468 (26.2 bb)
MP2: 8,607 (21.5 bb)
MP3: 28,226 (70.6 bb)
CO: 17,316 (43.3 bb)
BTN: 36,268 (90.7 bb)
SB: 6,064 (15.2 bb)
Hero (BB): 4,490 (11.2 bb)
UTG+1: 26,468 (66.2 bb)
UTG+2: 11,734 (29.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9 T
5 folds, CO raises to 800, 2 folds,

easy fold, not enough fe. I'd like to have at least 13-14 bbs here minimum for this play, also dependent on the villains stack tho.

Can we flat?

I imagine someone better than I at math could explain why flatting w 11 bbs here is probably bad. But now thinking about it, maybe a call would work, I figure you can c/shove a lot of boards cause the villain will be bet/folding a fairly high % of the time. Esp if he's a reg he might give you credit for a huge hand w ur flat

I think you can flat and c/jam quite a lot of flops.

don't flat.

fold>jam>flat

I'd flat.

trivial call imo

edit: and villain should correctly assume we do not have a big hand since we'd just shove pre as he's calling extremely often.

His opening range is 25-35% say if you push he probably sees you as top 15-20% and he folds maybe 1/3 of his range? You have 41% if he never folds and 40% if he folds a few hands.

It cant be made positive to shove here unless the CO is real wide in opening. The min raise size is also a bit scary.

However folding is not an obvious option here. Are you kidding me?

The pot if you call starts at 2+2+0.5+0.9=5.4bb and you put in 1bb. The size of raise seems fishy and maybe a big hand begging you to shove because as min raise it has small fold equity so why is he doing it? But even if so 6-7% of flops hit you very hard here. I mean flush, straight or flush and straight draw or pair and flush draw or 2p, trips and better. We not only then can make the 5.4bb but also his cbet.

Then there are flops with T or 9 pair and no overcards or one overcard other than A,K that can be pushed hoping he doesnt have overpair or better kicker (rare but the min raise size is scary for QQ-AA,AK). There are of course flush draws or straight draws and some of them with overcards live too. I think calling is very nice here. This hand connects very often in a variety of nice ways that offer semi bluff potential. But the core 6% of very strong flops where we get to take at least another 3-5bb from him maybe even all the stack left easily covers plenty of the cost to play. Spend 1 to take possibly down 10bb 6% of the time , maybe 3bb another 20% of the time. I ll go over a bit more with the possible flops here and study what happens vs a variety of ranges for him and see what is the safer verdict. But at first glance it feels weak to fold here Its just that the min raise sizing makes one careful a bit because it feels a lot like trap.

what would u do with 55 here?

Doubt you have played a single HSMTT online after 2008.

pretty clear shove

lol, +1 (I'ma start minraising some more from now, it looks soooo scary...OH WAIT !)

flat and play accordingly post, c/jam a lot of flops and fold some ridiculous ones

we're getting 4.5:1 pre, it's not like we need to go crazy trying to win every pot postflop.

When's the book coming out?

I like a shove, folding 22/33 tho (same reason as the 9Thh, Id want at least 13 bbs minimum OR villain to be shorter where he is forced to call off a greater portion of his stack so he can't just shrug call w/QT or JTo)

If this was directed at me, I'm jamming for sure. I think it's a lot easier to pick up some flops with 9Thh that I know I can get the rest of my money in profitably against his range.

c/jam lots of flops?

look at his stack size...he is getting called here so often by anyone remotely decent.

better make sure you hit the flop if that's what you want to do hence why peeling 10bbs deep oop praying to hit a flop is not recommended.

edit: what flops are u c/jamming lots that you miss?

If this premise is correct, then flatting and jamming when we hit/ have a decent draw seems like the optimal play.

flatting seems clearly the best play.

huh ? Its not like I'm going to count the flops he misses and we c/jam now , there are online tools for that.

how's he gonna call KQo on A86r for ex or 66 on K94r ? etc

that premise of "hes getting called a lot by anyone decent" is quite a stretch

Absurdly easy flat

for example Q93r, he will cbet all his air, theres def enough good flops to flat

This, no idea why anyone is considering anything else. 55 is close between flat & jam.

If V is opening ~30% of hands it`s a profitable 3b-shove.

Or you doubt he`d open that much into 2 shortstacks?