Really awkward spot with top 2 in WCOOP 1K - Page 2 - High Stakes MTT Strategy

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Really awkward spot with top 2 in WCOOP 1K

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09-23-2010 , 06:24 PM

#26

ssaul2

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 105

this deep, calling > folding>>>>>3B

calling does not set us up to get owned, it shows a ton of strength while risking very little, and it is likely that we win the hand on later streets if indeed our hand is best, which it very well may be. if a scary card hits on turn and we face more pressure, should be a fairly easy lay down.

09-23-2010 , 07:38 PM

#27

STJEAN81

banned

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 700

Everyone who is saying flat: What are we doing on dif textures of turns? It is going to be soooo difficult to play this hand OOP once we flat and is almost always gonna result in us playing it sub-optimally.
What do we do on Tc turn? xc? 7o? etc , There are so few good options for every card in the deck lol

09-23-2010 , 09:17 PM

#28

DDBeast

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 3,698

Think I'm changing to the call camp. You can call and fold to any further action on the turn (or flop) because it looks so ridiculously strong. Nora for sure shouldn't be putting any money in on the turn if he has JTcc or whatever combo draw, I think it will just be 88 and we can safely fold then. I still think 3Bing is suicide.

Last edited by DDBeast; 09-23-2010 at 09:30 PM.

09-23-2010 , 09:43 PM

#29

STJEAN81

banned

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 700

Quote:

Originally Posted by DDBeast

Suppose I should've noted that I agree with this....3B'ing feels really really bad

09-23-2010 , 09:45 PM

#30

rumnchess

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 4,485

Dunno why ppl don't just want to fold. Are we ever winning a big pot if we proceed with this hand? Just bad reverse implied odds, we're out of position and just lost on both bricks and bad cards if we face further heat. It's not the end of the world if we fold and he had KQ. We're just praying he's got a draw, and then giving him two streets to get there when he checks back and being confused when he bets. Plus the original raiser's still gonna have us beat some non-zero% of the time (probably really rare but not neglible)

09-23-2010 , 09:52 PM

#31

STJEAN81

banned

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 700

Quote:

Originally Posted by rumnchess

This is a good post and basically sums up my thinking as well.

09-23-2010 , 10:21 PM

#32

Pudge714

Modding All Day

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 39,104

lead the flop for sure. As played call.

09-23-2010 , 10:22 PM

#33

DDBeast

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 3,698

Quote:

Originally Posted by rumnchess

Sure folding is easy, but we're trying to figure out the most +EV play, which is admittedly, difficult. I mean, we're kind of praying he's on a draw, but his only made hand is 88 that beats us is 88. In addition, I don't think we'll be confused when he bets again, I think then we can narrow it down to just 88.

09-24-2010 , 12:00 AM

#34

oh-nahhh

Donking it

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,040

yo highstakes nasties...i know im gunna sound hurt but could someone explain to me why jamming isnt +ev when we are risking 6k to win like almost 2k and nobody ever like ever has sets cause theyre mad hard to get

09-24-2010 , 02:08 AM

#35

JackOfSpeed

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 2,721

Hypothetically, if we shoved, are villains never calling with worse?

Considering NSB's crappy image, the draw-heavy board, and the number of folks that satty into these WCOOP events, would you be completely shocked to have a shove called by AA or AK? A shove would look/smell like a big draw to some players. (I'm assuming both villains are randoms to NSB since he didn't mention anything in the OP)

09-24-2010 , 12:37 PM

#36

Bakedbean87

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 174

If he is re rasing 4 way on that flop he is almost certainly betting turn whether he hits or misses which means if we call flop it means we are hoping he A) Has a draw B)Chooses not to bet it on turn if he misses C) Doesn't hit the turn or river, seems like a lot to hope for and that it would rarely work out plus I think 88 is way more likely than a draw in this spot

09-24-2010 , 09:08 PM

#37

STJEAN81

banned

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 700

I think given the action he will check back missed draws a very high % of the time on the turn. And although 88 is def likely, there are lots of huge combo draws on that flop that could play it the same.

09-25-2010 , 01:17 AM

#38

PhatPots

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 3,934

WOW, I am an occassional poster and just WOW

To see you all advocate folding in this spot blows my mind. You have top 2 on a drawy board. Its not like you said you are playing two Nitty regulars who have to have it. Can't a random raise a naked A high flush draw (I don't know who either Shane or Noraflum are)? You call and if a club hits you cry and fold. I prefer shoving to folding in this spot.

If you folded and the two other players turned up 2 sets then great fold, but I just don't like a fold in this spot without any knowledge of the two players

09-25-2010 , 02:23 AM

#39

Kecinpulach

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 544

KQ is merely as likely as 88 + combos and there could be even worse considering your image, like weak draws, I am shoving (but I am bad

09-25-2010 , 02:29 AM

#40

Muraca

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 382

I don't play mtt often but is it very unlikely/impossible for villain to have ak? I seem to remember watching some mtt guys I know flatting ak to a single raise a decent bit pre.

09-25-2010 , 02:57 AM

#41

smokrokflock

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 3,180

Quote:

Originally Posted by DDBeast

09-25-2010 , 05:59 AM

#42

NeverScaredB

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 8,314

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pudge714

lead the flop for sure. As played call.

IDK I thought about this a bit. Still not decided on what I like best but I think people are folding top pair to me approximately never on the flop and less than never when all the draws miss so might as well try to make the pot big? If I was worried about people checking behind with KJ on the flop or playing good on future streets or any of that stuff I'd probably lead.

Why do you think leading is best?

09-25-2010 , 04:13 PM

#43

Pudge714

Modding All Day

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 39,104

I think people are pretty bad at ranging leads and especially for someone with your image you can get in a lot of bets vs. hands that would try to pot control.

09-25-2010 , 04:38 PM

#44

mattwut1

adept

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 1,032

although "in theory" a flat from NSB would look really strong, i dont think it does here

if he had a set then hes more than likely re raising on the flop, repping a big draw especially with his image imo

so i think a flat will make our hand look pretty much like what it is, its a case of whether villain is going to try and bluff us off it

horrid spot, i think im probably calling flop and folding to further action

09-25-2010 , 06:12 PM

#45

rcrane

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 231

Is it bad that folding would never cross my mind in this spot?

09-25-2010 , 06:18 PM

#46

rumnchess

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 4,485

Quote:

Originally Posted by mattwut1

You guys with this plan of calling and folding to further action really think that the parlay of A) neither opponent bets the turn and B) our hand holds up til the river really happens enough to justify calling the flop happens often enough? I don't.

09-25-2010 , 06:22 PM

#47

mattwut1

adept

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 1,032

Quote:

Originally Posted by rumnchess

no, i think fold is the best option

sorry i meant in game thts wot id probably end up doing lol

09-25-2010 , 07:09 PM

#48

registrar

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 6,886

Quote:

Originally Posted by rcrane

Is it bad that folding would never cross my mind in this spot?

Yes. It should cross your mind.

09-29-2010 , 12:48 PM

#49

Big Ben

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 91

Results?

09-29-2010 , 05:50 PM

#50

Eagles

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 13,022

I would probably call and shut down unless I hit a king or queen.

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