Poker Stars $300+$20 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 9 players
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SB: t1230 M = 41
BB: t2970 M = 99
UTG: t3000 M = 100
UTG+1: t2740 M = 91.33
UTG+2: t2960 M = 98.67
Hero (MP1): t2970 M = 99
MP2: t4920 M = 164
CO: t3045 M = 101.50
BTN: t3165 M = 105.50

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is MP1 with J J
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t60, 1 fold, Hero calls t60, 5 folds

Flop: (t150) A T 7 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets t80, Hero calls t80

Turn: (t310) J (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets t220, UTG+1 raises to t744, Hero ....

This is like 10 hands and guy is a rando.

Well im not folding and shipping seems bad.

heaps of horrible cards though and we're beat by 2 hands and there are much more than that which would probably call a shove. I'm all in.

3 hands!!!1!

But yeah you make a good point.

Eh, I think I jam, he's going to have like exactly pot on the river, think it goes in good more often on the turn.

Always dangerous drawing to a broadway set on a broadway board.

I was going to say jam as well (given the difficulty of playing river shallow), but resorting first to the trusty stove...

Turn: A T 7 J

If you give him a wide preflop range, and he goes crazy at turn with Aces-up or better and big combo draws... maybe something like this:

47% vs AA,TT,77,AdKd,AdQd,AJs-ATs,KQs,98s,AJo,KQo

If he's only doing this with made hands Aces-up or better:

45% vs AA,TT,77,AJs-ATs,KQs,98s,AJo,KQo

If 77 and 98s are too wacky for you given his early position preflop:

42% vs AA,TT,AJs-ATs,KQs,AJo,KQo

As above but he's more sane and would flat with aces-up for pot control, i.e. raises only trips or better:

30% vs AA,TT,KQs,KQo

As above but putting 77 back in there cause I feel sorry for the Jacks...

38% vs AA,TT,77,KQs,KQo

Altogether a surprisingly (to me) bad set of results for the ol' JJJ.

Presuming we're better than the other players, for most of the ranges the math says we could find a better spot to shove.

I don't see how we can flat either after the big raise. Far too easy to get owned at the river.

Fold second set -- can that be right??

I call

hom
: =/
: u shove or fold?
ss
: call...let him bluff river

CALL turn, really?

I mean, our best scenario is he has a straight and the board pairs, or he has a combo flushdraw, hits and the board pairs... but there is only ONE flushcard that pairs, and it's the A, which may fill aces-up, so that's a double-edged sword.

We have:

J J

Are we happy with these rivers...

A T 7 J Qx
A T 7 J Kx
A T 7 J x
A T 7 J A
A T 7 J A
A T 7 J A

And how happy are we even with a blank? Same problem as turn.


Seems like the few rivers that really perk us up are...

A T 7 J J
A T 7 J Tx
A T 7 J 7x

Hopefully we don't lose action from straights that have gone this deep, but vs the other made hands it's more complicated.

The J one-outer is nice, and payday vs sets, but kills action from AT.

The T is a payday for us if he has AT (but is then only a 2-outer), a 3-outer payday if he has 77, or a 1- to 3-outer disaster vs AA or TT.

The 7 at the river is more likely to kill action vs Aces-Up (he can't make 777AA like he could with TTTAA). It's also scarier for us when we get action, because now we beat only the 77 boat.


We don't even act first at river, or I could maybe see some merit to calling turn and shoving any river (i.e. hoping he folds a straight if the flush shows, or a low straight if four to broadway show).

But even if we could do that, then we risk losing value from the few hands we can beat at turn, i.e. under-sets, two pair, maybe a combo draw, any of which might be forced to fold a scary river (or in the draw case, beats us for 'free').


Since in this hand HE acts first, he might have the same plan... if he shoves any river (which seems likely) what are we gonna do on the super scare boards like four to broadway?

I mean, I just don't know how we play river intelligently. Unless we hit the one-outer of course.


So... seems to me like a turn call is our worst option. Am I missing something?

what the chalupa?

Can't reply now, too busy multitabling/snap-folding second sets.

Haha

i just call too but could be convinced something else is better.

I'd call. Shoving is not terrible, folding is. I think you call to let him bluff river. If he shows up with AA, oh well.

I would probably shove and dont feel too good about it. dont see much merits in calling vs shoving on this board.

The merit of calling is that shoving makes him play his hand closer to perfect and just calling can induce a spazz bluff on river. He probably only calls with AJ, 77 and TT that we beat and has AA or a straight when he calls and beats us. Basically we can get more chips in when we just call and are ahead is my thinking. Also what is our plan if the board pairs on the river? If a diamond hits? If an 8 or a 9 hits? And if checked to us when an 8 or 9 of diamonds hits?

of course but on this board when almost half the deck puts a flush or a 1 card straight and the pot is big its better to just shove the money in than calling imo. dont think he will spazz on the river that often and he probably not c/f any better hands on the river like ever. close spot though.

For the crowd saying Call, synopsis of river play. Clearly we don't fold on a paired board river, what about diamond, k/q or brick boards?

calling on a brick, probably folding a Q/T, folding if he fires a diamond, bombing if he checks a diamond, these could change depending on villains river sizing/timing

Let's make the assumption (a safe one I think) that villain has at the turn a "good hand", not an outright bluff, i.e. he calls if we shove.

But because we're so hellmuthian, we decide to just call and re-evaluate at the turn.

After we flat turn, the pot is about 1800 and effective remaining (Villain is shorter stack) is about 1800.

So Villain has a pot bet left, a reasonable shove size. I don't think there's going to be subtle bet-sizing going on at river to give us any more reads.

In fact, I think a very reasonable plan by Villain is to just close his eyes and shove every river -- both for value (i.e. he has a straight or made hand he thinks is best at turn, or improves) AND as first right of bluff.

So... let's say our plan is to call the turn and fold to a shove when one of the big scare cards shows:

Turn: A T 7 J

River scariness:

Q K - 4 to broadway and 3 to flush
Q Q Q K K K - 4 to broadway
2 3 4 5 6 8 9 - 3 to flush
--------------------------------
15 scare cards out of 46

We are going to fold river 15 / 46 = nearly 1/3 of the time!


At river villain shoves pot. We fold 1/3 times.

If Villain has Aces-up, 77, TT -- hands that would have called a turn push as a big underdog -- we are effectively giving all those hands a 33% freeroll to "improve" to a hand that folds us.

If such a simple (and likely) Villain strategy owns us, how can calling the turn be correct? We can be the best player in the world and it doesn't matter. The stacks are too shallow. Villain has an unexploitable shove strategy.

So if we think our hand is good enough to continue after his turn raise, then I think pushing is clearly better than calling.

But honestly I'm starting to think the turn fold needs more love.

The math for my previous post, vs the best-case range that I posted earlier, i.e. at the turn we are 47% vs the range:

AA,TT,77,AdKd,AdQd,AJs-ATs,KQs,98s,AJo,KQo

We get check-raised at turn. We have put in 60 + 80 + 220 = 360 at that point. If we fold, our EV = -360.

If we continue, calling his raise, we have invested 900. The pot is now 1800. We can the put him in for another 1800 right now, or wait until river and decide what to do when he shoves another 1800. If there is a showdown, the pot is 5400.

If we shove turn, we have put in a total of 2700, and win 0.47 * 5400 = 2538, for a net of -162 EV.

If we flat the turn, we have put in 900. We now reevaluate with 46 possible rivers.

River: A T 7 J ??

There are 46 possible river cards:

15 - Scare cards as in previous post (non-pair diamond, 4-to-broadway)
We fold. EV -900

1 - J
We call and win with the nuts. EV +2700

1 - A
We call and are 0.84 vs his range. EV +1836

2 - A, A
We call and are 0.875 vs his range. EV +1836

3 - T, T, T
We call and are 0.88 vs his range. EV +2052

3 - 7, 7, 7
We call and are 0.88 vs his range. EV +2052

21 - Blanks
We call and are 0.36 vs his range. EV -756
(Surprised? I was. We catch a blank and STILL lose 2/3 times vs a wide range.)

Multiply the number of cards by each EV, add them up, divide by 46... river is -184 EV.

Note the EV for some isn't exact... depending on what exactly the blank is, or even the suit of a card, our EV is slightly different as it affect which cards are in his range. See the difference between the Ace rivers, for example. To do it exact you'd have to stove every single river card. But I think this is close.


Summary
--------------------
Fold at turn: -360 EV
Shove at turn: -162 EV
Re-eval river: -184 EV


So if you buy the logic and I didn't screw the math... shoving turn is our best play by a nose over calling. Either is better than folding. From a chip EV perspective.

Of course we're going busto a lot as well in a tourney which presumably we think we're a favorite, so is that a good spot? Or should we fold (which costs us 200 chips in the long run over shoving) and wait?

And of course, we are losing money with second set no matter what we do. That sucks!

Which begs the question... could we play this differently, or did we just get coolered?

Once we get check-raised at turn we wish we had checked behind, because now we have basically thrown away the value of position, and our skill, with the stacks so shallow relative to the now-bloated pot.

If we check behind we can suck out free vs KQ, or at least keep the pot small enough to prevent villain from shoving river with impunity when a scare card comes. But is checking behind something we should 'know' in advance on this board, or not?

I think it would also be interesting to re-do the math vs one of the tighter villain ranges as well. My guess is those bode even worse for our JJ, probably in large part because we still fold to scare cards even though that's incorrect more often.

I just ship it vs a random.. not beat by much and we beat a lot, worse sets two pairs random draws etc. I don't think hes folding and will talk himself into a call with draws after money put in

On top of that bad river cards to come for both him and you to slow action down and lose you value

I know we are deep as f. but this is vs a random , i can't see doing anything else here.

The only merit I can see from calling is to keep his range wider but river cards can slow him and us down

I'm 99% confident he leads all sets,2 pair, AQ,AKdd hands on turn instead of going for the c/r. I'd flat and fold on river unimproved. If he led into us I'd be happy to raise/call it in.

I agree you'll get called, but I don't agree you beat much (which I admit I found surprising).

See if you can find a sensible range in PokerStove that you beat.



I think a good player would generally lead all those hands *and* KQ. It's a weird spot for a checkraise imo.

Against a rando I tend to agree that KQ is far and away the most likely hand, and he's checkraising cause he's just so damn clever.

But I think AA is possible for a rando, and maybe a good player, particularly if the good player views his opponent as aggressive.

The AA thinks he has the board crushed (and does, most of the time) and it would be hard to find a bet size to both (1) protect against the myriad draws that are developing while (2) still getting value from the range of made hands that would call a bet.

So maybe he decides to take some risk, checking AAA hoping to induce a bet (many of which will be semi-bluffs) which he is then gonna blast with a big raise. That way he gets value from the draws, and if his opponent happens to have a set, he wins big. If he unluckily runs into KQ, he has the top set to fall back on.

So I would keep AA in there. I'm still not sure that makes a call correct even if we can put him on precisely AA/KQ. A call is obviously better than pushing because we "know" we're beaten, but I'm not sure it's better than a fold.

On the plus side, if we get to the river we can play intelligently, folding to all blanks and scare cards, and almost certainly getting paid by KQ when we improve. The downside is when we improve we'll pay off AA every time (well every time but 1!)

Would have to run the math again to see if call > fold and by how much.

Very interesting spot all around... and I'm thinking next time I find myself in it I should check my set back.

Doing the math vs extremely narrow range in previous post. We are 19% vs:

AA,KQs,KQo

We get check-raised at turn. If we fold, we lose what we've put in, -360 EV.

Calling to get to river costs 900 total, where we plan to fold unimproved, otherwise call 1800 shove, total pot 5400.

River: A T 7 J ??

There are 46 possible river cards:

1 - J
We call and win with the nuts. EV +2700

3 - A, A, A
We call and are 0.94 vs his range. +2376 EV

6 - T, T, T, 7, 7, 7
We call and are 0.84 vs his range. +1836 EV

36 - Other
We fold unimproved. EV -900

On average getting to river is -371 EV.


Summary: Folding is -360 EV, calling is -371 EV

Essentially equal from a chip EV, as long as hand reading was dead on, AND we are disciplined about folding the river when the 2 rolls off, AND our opponent pays off with a straight whenever we improve, AND...

But let's say all those assumptions are true. If we're one of the better players, should we be taking neutral chip EV risks early in the tourney with nearly 1/3 of our chip stack?

I think bet/fold is still preferable. And check-check is looking best of all.