Party 200K, difficult situation on the turn - High Stakes MTT Strategy

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Party 200K, difficult situation on the turn

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08-23-2011 , 06:22 AM

SenzaAglio

stranger

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 4

Hi everybody! This is a hand I played last Sunday. The average is about 80K, there are ~100 players left. I have no reads of the opponent, who has just arrived to the table.

Party, $200 Buy-in (1,500/3,000 blinds, 300 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #10359902

UTG+1: 35,305 (11.8 bb)
Hero (MP1): 133,767 (44.6 bb)
BB: 97,952 (32.7 bb)
MP2: 36,516 (12.2 bb)
UTG+2: 30,996 (10.3 bb)
MP3: 48,039 (16 bb)
BTN: 60,412 (20.1 bb)
CO: 75,861 (25.3 bb)
SB: 76,397 (25.5 bb)

Preflop: (2,700) Hero is MP1 with K

2 folds, Hero raises to 6,035, 5 folds, BB calls 3,035

Flop: (16,270) 5

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 7,350, BB raises to 16,555, Hero calls 9,205

Turn: (49,380) A

(2 players)
BB bets 25,000

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I was almost 100 % sure that he had a set, but even if he did, I would have 16 % odds to win the pot.

I think the C-bet and the call on the flop are standard but how would you play the turn?

08-23-2011 , 07:01 AM

fivetypes

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 7,058

All in, he can definitely have worse

08-23-2011 , 07:53 AM

Pardyallthetime

adept

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 786

you were almost 100% he had a set. 55/66=2 hands.

Cooler if he does (a5/a6s too I suppose). arr een

I see your logic though. Your hand is fairly face up when you call the CR (not doing this with 99-KK). Icky spot I just don't know how I can get away from trips TK in a HU pot.

Tank and OPR?

08-23-2011 , 08:02 AM

moffo

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 252

Call and call river shove... happily

08-23-2011 , 08:55 AM

gregz41

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 8,609

Quote:

Originally Posted by moffo

Call and call river shove... happily

yep. Folding seems v bad given effective stacks.

08-23-2011 , 09:06 AM

Kramerica

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 3,528

I'd fold

Spoiler:

08-23-2011 , 09:25 AM

Shane Gamble

adept

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 785

call/call happily

08-23-2011 , 10:57 AM

blueheel23

centurion

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 115

Easy call to me. He could easily have other Ax combos that you have crushed. Spike K on river and laugh all the way to the FT.

08-23-2011 , 12:32 PM

sick cards

adept

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 809

Call and call.

08-24-2011 , 08:16 PM

#10

aseHigh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 11,883

call

Spoiler:

Last edited by aseHigh; 08-24-2011 at 08:16 PM. Reason: gotta love 2p2.......

08-24-2011 , 08:27 PM

#11

MrGo

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 1,232

If you call the flop and improve your hand dramatically, how can you think about folding? If you fear a set, fold the flop then.

08-24-2011 , 08:33 PM

#12

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,379

Quote:

Originally Posted by fivetypes

All in, he can definitely have worse

This, and it's not close

Sure he can have a full house, but he can also have diamonds, random straight draws, counterfeited 2p, a worse ace, or random air/spew. Besides, you're just going to smash out a king on the river if he has a full house anyway.

Edit: Call and call river shove is probably better than shoving turn as moffo said before

08-25-2011 , 02:18 AM

#13

theguru

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 2,132

yeah Def just call turn with the intention of calling a river bet. Shoving turn accomplishing nothing besides folding hands you don't want to fold out.

08-25-2011 , 03:19 AM

#14

Rajon Rando

grinder

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 433

Quote:

Originally Posted by theguru

yeah Def just call turn with the intention of calling a river bet. Shoving turn accomplishing nothing besides folding hands you don't want to fold out.

meh, not so sure i agree....i think he sticks in a ton of combo pairs/draws that might ultimately c/f the river

08-25-2011 , 07:00 AM

#15

moffo

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 252

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rajon Rando

meh, not so sure i agree....i think he sticks in a ton of combo pairs/draws that might ultimately c/f the river

I don't think he is going to bet/call turn with even the top of his combo range, eg. 78dd, they would either c/c or c/rai with those hands.

08-25-2011 , 09:15 AM

#16

roo400

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 1,407

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rajon Rando

meh, not so sure i agree....i think he sticks in a ton of combo pairs/draws that might ultimately c/f the river

the only combo pairs/draws out there are 54dd and 87dd...flat calling here is best, as he could continue bluffing on the river and except for some other Ax that c/r the flop, nothing we beat is calling...and he is shoving all those on the rivers anyway

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