APPT Grand Final High rollers event (15k AUD, bout 10k USD.)

Open raiser is Jarred Graham aka Try_an_Hit on 2+2
Button is online cash player Andrew Pantling. I'm told he wins at mid-high cash online over a large sample, and plays and speaks in a manner that suggests that to be accurate.

Jarred has been quite aggressive with open raises and I've been 3 betting him often. Andrew is also quite aggressive but one thing I've noticed is he tends to call reraises considerably more wide than tournament players, though the hands I've seen that in are nearly entirely in heads up pots.

My stack: ~36,000
Jarred: ~80,000
Andrew: ~90,000
Blinds 300/600 with 75 ante. I hold J J on the CO.

Preflop: Folds to Jarred on the HJ, Jarred raises to 1600, I reraise to 4600, Andrew thinks for a while then flat call, both blinds fold, Jarred folds.

Flop: 3 9 5 (Pot 12300)
Hero?

if you've been three betting Jarred often and he's been calling wide, heads up or not, and he has position/big stack, it seems like a good spot to bet 7,200 and fold out his AK perhaps down to ATs?....and maybe he flats a small to medium percentage of the time with a KQs/KJs/QJs/JTs(maybe a little less on KJs and QJs(not to say the other two are super often either but at least a little more likely I would think)....and pick up a nice 20% or so increase in your stack/call shove from possibly(probably pretty small percentage) A9s/pretty much everything he'd call with from hands(basically only over cards i would think)that make flush draws and flip or likely-good-often-in-his-mind mid pair hands (that won't hurt his stack THAT ridiculously much if he's beat since he has around 70-some-bbs left) to shove/bluffs/mutter about a cooler on anything that beats you(probably only 4 hands?maaybe 6 if he's wide enough for 33/55 although he is seemingly deep enough for this....maaaaybe seven(seems like he would raise KK more often and flat more often with the QQ and AA....but that's not saying it's not perhaps even FAR more likely to see him raise all three bigger pairs since it would seem he wouldn't mess around flatting them given the likelihood of getting two callers, one of which could seriously affect his tournament and would often create a rather volatile/relatively big 3-way pot and the other big stack's hand seems pretty easily folded out by any kind or re-reraise(and likely happily so for him I would think).....I'm too lazy to do anything mathematical but it would seem betting/calling would have a pretty good amount of positive expectation in this spot given the two stack sizes and a faaiirrrllyyy wide range but fair one, IMO.

Why would you try to get worse hands out? I disagree with that line of thinking entirely. You're trying to maximize value.

Bond, checking here is suss, and if he's wide, it's a real mistake to let him get a free card.

I bet out 5200 into the ~8000 pot. The real problem is with a raise, obv. Any pertinent reads there?

c/r all in to let him make a hero call with 77 w/e

if the guy is that wide, there are way too many outs with which he can catch up with or scare hero out of the pot.

The crucial thing here is to get bond to throw out an assumed range with which villain flats the 3bet.

it's not that im trying to get worse hands out, im just saying what's probably going to happen....how can't he bet here? villain is seriously going to bet this often enouh with is unpaired big cards that the c/r value is greater than the possibility of him just taking one off for free and getting ourselves in all sorts of trouble on a K,Q, and maybe A turn....and the pot is 12,300 it actually says it right in the post by the cards that the dealer put on the table.

If we c/r, we're never getting called by worse, whereas we might be able to extract from a worse hand by betting out, especially since this guy is fond of flatting.

I like leading out here, AINEC, imo.

ya, that's what i was saying he should do...7,200

Yeah, I misread pot size, anywhere around 2/3 of the pot isn't too bad.

the whole reason continuation bets make sense for the person who has the initiative preflop is because the opening raiser tends to have a tighter range than the person flatting, and therefor will tend to have the better hand after the flop too.

in this spot it's the exact opposite because there are fewer hands he (well, most people) calls 3 cold with than there are hands that you make it 3 with.

leading here for 2/3rds of the pot seems almost analogous to flatting with a small to mid pair preflop in the blinds and donk/calling or donk/folding the flop because "gotta protect ma hand bro".

by default you should treat it as if he has the initiative preflop for the exact same reasons why you would if he had raised and you had flatted. it's a completely legitimate spot for you to check/fold and give up on the pot with a lot of your range because, knowing nothing about what hands either of you actually have, you will more often be beat. and because you're going to be check/folding so frequently you've created enough of an incentive for him to fire at the pot with a lot of his weaker stuff to get you to fold as well as value bet worse hands.

once he bets and you decide to continue the pot will be so big that you dont even have to think about what worse hands will call you. most of his hands are drawing extremely live, and he will be getting over 2:1 - so you're just as pleased if he folds most of the hands he bets with.

I'd bet 2/3 pot and shut down to any further action. Either that or c/f.

Please post more often.

Bond stipulates that this guy is flatting "wider than normal". Given such a read, do you still feel that c/f is correct? Obviously, the crucial question is whether or not villain folds 2/3 of his range (given a 2/3 psb).

After more thought, given stack sizes, I would agree with a c/f, because villain is GOING to continue with the hand when he's drawing. If hero bets here, villain raises.

Btw, listen to the Bibbit. What a great post. I learned something today.

lol im sure billy has spoken more profound words in the past

Why are most of his hands drawing extremely live? don't you believe he's potentially holding most any pair and would then be betting that pair when checked too? if so it would seem the majority of his range that we beat is probably not drawing that live unless you weight the unpaired (suited or not) big cards that much more than the pairs which seems unlikely and even further unlikely if you assume he's a player that 4-balls the AK here...

furthermore, do we have to assume the villain will always bet his midpair hands and draws(i agree he bets almost every time with the draw)? isn't it at least close to being likely enough that he will check behind that we could possibly lose a lot of value from many of the hands that look to be good often from his POV/the whole pot on a bad turn/make our hand much more easily read if we decide to bet into him on a blank turn(esp non-heart since the heart opens up a large increase in bluff and semi-bluff possibilities from villain)?

I mean he can't really think we'd three bet two unpaired big cards then check the flop then make a reckless bluff for so much of our stack with like AQ high into his strong ass 3bet flat....doesn't that kind of announce a pair such as the one we have? If we check again on the turn blank we're perhaps increasing his bluff frequency a decent amt but do we really want to get that cute with JJ and let him possibly see two free cards on such a good flop with such a stack size? seems reckless with our tournament life/conducive to finding an ever more murky and difficult spot...or see a checked down river where he shows you smaller pair/big cards you gave a free ride and possibly peeled off to beat you

If we check the flop and he checks back and a big card comes off you have to either b/f or c/f don't you? I really don't like getting into that spot...and it's even murkier on the river if he checks back the big card when he hits it...

It seems overly cute and possibly naive to assume villain is always betting when we check given the fact he's somewhat wide here/a competent player that knows we would want to check raise big pairs all in....checking just so we can play our hand the perfect way we want which we have no evidence we will be able too doesn't do it for me...it seems nothing bad that wouldn't have happened anyway can come out of a standard c-bet here

IMO it seems like given the dynamics(apparently wide raising/wide flatting) it would be best to bet around 2/3 kinda quickly and be happy with either result...nice chip up....get it in with JJ on a favorable board(push any turn if he flats, IMO)

it seems like an important factor which bond hasn't supplied us with is his c-bet frequency/size throughout the tourney and how villain has viewed/reacted to his c-bets/how often villain has bet when checked to after flat calling raises PF regardless of the fact this hand has a much different dynamic given the the three bet and cold call it's still some kind of information to help decide here.

interesting post

thanks

If he flats wider than normal we have to be ahead of his range here. I like bet with intention of calling a shove, since I think a check-shove is going to get us looked up by a much tighter range which may be ahead. If we bet out about 8k leaving us with about 19k he can shove with a wider range. Also with a pair of jacks there's up to 12 overcards we dont want to let him get a free turn for.
So i like bet out 8k

No. This all depends on exactly what "wider than normal" means. Normally, to flat a 3bet with the OR yet to act, you have to be incredibly strong, because of the big chance for a squeeze. We are not ahead of a normal range here. Just how much wider the guy is is what I'm still waiting on the Bond to answer.

ahem?

Not much of tourney player so I cant say I know these things for certain, but I'd assume a normal range here is J's+ . I got from post he flat'd multiple times so he's been doing this alot. This opens up the range to I would think on the small side to 8's+ and possibly KQ-s maybe AJ-s. I think were way ahead of this range. If it's even wider you can start putting some suited connectors in there making things better as well as alot more weaker pairs.

I guess I'm not waiting for better than 4th best hand in someone flat'n "considerably more" as quoted than tournament players. I think if you bet and he shoves it gets more interesting, but I dont see how were not ahead here on flop without anymore info. I am ok with being wrong too but still look for proof otherwise. If b/c isnt optimal what is? c/r means were only getting called by better. b/c we at least give him a chance to spaz out.

So the only possibly better line involves if you can get away from the hand and in some way correctly fold. I dont think were deep enough though to narrow a range that calls for a fold at some point.

IMO he's not saying to c/f, he is saying that in this spot, Bond18 will frequently c/f, which means that Villain will likely bet out.

However, in this particular case, Bond18 has a hand that is in the upper portion of his 3b range, and will therefore not be c/f. Bond18 wants to get it in, so he either check/calls and shoves the turn, or c/r (I think he is insinuating the latter)

bet/fold imo

edit: and don't be a live tellbox when u bet

Okay, quick question: How wide is a normal flat of a 3bet? is AK in that range?

I think that I had assigned villain too tight of a flatting range.

I feel dumb now, help a fish out.

if you've really been three betting a lot he should probably be making it like 10500 pre with most of his big hands...I like crai as odd as that sounds

FWIW you and I came to the same conclusion.