Ok this hand was like in the first 20 minutes, with blinds of 25/25 (yep weird structure). I had pkt 9s in the MP2. MP1 raises. So I decide to test him alittle, he raised it to 75, and I popped it up to 225. (started with stack of 4.925K). CO calls, everyone else folds, even the orginial raiser. Soo the flop comes out with 9 in window, 9 T K, rainbow. CO has played only one hand out of the blinds (this is the only one). Don't have a read on him. Soo I check to him, he bets 200 into a pot of 575. I snap off a raise to 700 and almost immediately, he pushes all in.

Now the question is, what do you do? what range do you give unknown villian for? explain why you thought what you thought and the actions you make.

Here was my thoughts. Massive overbet 3.9K raise into a roughly 6K pot. Soo I am getting roughly getting 1.5 to 1 to call (odds are alittle better but doing quick math lol) with bottom set. I put villians range at AA thru TT, AK-AJ, KT, QJ, any pocket pair below 9 (trying to raise me off a marginial hand) or air.

Soo Against KK or TT on this flop, I have 1 out (the case 9). I got 2 times to get it, roughly 4% to win on the flop against KK or TT in this situation. I will assume, he holds this 30% of the time and I am only 4% to win.

Against QQ, JJ, AA. I am a favorite but more so against AA than QQ or JJ because of the partial outs as gut shots in addition to the 2 outs to make better set. So against AA I am roughly 92% to win, and against QQ or JJ, I am roughly 88% to win. I will assume he holds this 15% of the time, and I win 88% of the time

Against AK-AJ. I am huge favorite but more so towards AK than AQ, AJ simply because of the straight outs. I am still over 90% to win against any of the above hands. I will assume, he is holding this 25% of the time, and I am 90% to win.

against KT, I am a favorite but not over 90%. I am around 80-84% (depending on suited or not and what is on board for runner runner). He has 4 outs to make a full house that would be better than mine. Also has a very small chance to make runner runner flush if he has KTs against my 9 (like KT of spades and the 9 of spades is on board). I will Assume he is holding this 20% of the time, and I am 84% to win.

against QJ, I am a dog, much like KK or TT but not as bad. I am not really too concerned with this since I did raise into a raiser PF. But roughly, I would have any king (3), any ten (3) and case 9 (1) plus several partial outs (running QJ for split, running pairs) for about 1.5 outs more. soo 8.5 outs, I am roughly 32% to win. But against, this is low possibilty. still going to give it tohim 18% of the time. SOo I am 32% to win

Lastly, the PP below 9s or air (like Ace-rag bluff). I am over 95% against all these and the possibility that I am against this is soo slim that I almost even discounted the odds of him holding anything like this, but this is poker, so I will assume that he holds this 2% of the time. soo I won't even count it in equity.


30+15+25+20+18+2= 100%. Soo got my range given that he flat called my re-raise in position against me.

so to break it down equity wise. (do note that I did these probilities in my head during the tourney and got rough % during the tourney since I don't have a calculator in front of me during the tourney lol)

4% of 30 = 1.2%
88% of 15= 13.2%
90% of 25= 22.5%
84% of 20= 16.8%
32% of 18= 5.8%


Total Equity was: less than 60%. I actually got around 55% during tourney (guess I missed something in the math).

so now I am risking 3.9K more to win a 6K pot. soo my pot odds are 1.5 to 1 roughly. Soo I have to be right roughly 40% of the time for this to be a correct call. Since my equity against range was MORE than 40%, calling the all in is profitable BUT given that this is for all my stack, calling can be questionable on terms of survival.


Soo Math says call.

Logic says that by check raising him, I've shown him I have a stronger hand but then he moved all in, does he think I am bluffing and trying to push me off a drawing hand with something like AK? We've looked at the range and seen this to be mathmatically sound call but logically can you justify risking your tourney life on bottom set? since blinds are 25/25 and the starting stack is 5K, everyone starts with M=100. No need to get to hasty unless he has a weaker hand and wants to push me off a draw by putting me all in on the flop and stopping the betting there in attempts to get me to fold my draw. No time for image as of yet and gentleman is subtle, quiet and could be "seen" as a conservative player.


Soo logic is split. Calling and folding are both correct plays here.



Soo what is your play here?

(if any of this seems off or incorrect, please correct me, I am looking to improve my knowledge and learn something new, or fix something wrong, every day!).

The flop went:
You check
CO bets 200
You raise to 700
CO raises (allin) to 4,600

?

If I am understandingly correctly, you really absolutely need to snap call. Your logic tangent is also really flawed. He can have hands that he is shoving for value that are worse than 999 and he can also have hands that he is bluffing or semi-bluffing that are obviously worse than yours. To assume that once you check/raise, he is only continuing with KK, TT, QJ, and a few more hands is silly. Also, it makes your logic of check/raising really bad. Why check/raise when you think that he will only continue with a really tight range? Also since there was a raise and a re-raise, it is very unlikely for him to have QJ. Also, the wide majority of people (especially live players) will raise with KK preflop in that spot rather than call. So KK is unlikely.

INSTACALL

well check raising narrowed his range didn't it? because he was either shoving air or a made hand and in 2/3 of the situations with the narrowed range, I was still in good (only KK, TT and QJ were bad situations). Are you really going to be shoving AK, KQ, KJ or AA/QQ/JJ for value against someone who has check raised you on the flop? this is your tourney life on the line!

and after having the clock called on me, and finally going with the math side, I called, he showed KK for set of kings.

wow way too long man, also in the wrong forum.

why are you trying to narrow his range when you have a set of nines

You have a point but the board was semi-scary, and villian is unknown. Set of 9s is not snap call 100% of the time in this situation, there are other factors to consider, IMO.

Now if the board was more dry like K94 rainbow, snap call all day every day against live donkaments.

Instead of spending $120 on the buy in, just put it all on red and call it a day.

folding is so dumb

I never addressed whether it's a call or a fold when he goes all-in. I said that if it's not a snap call then you made a huge mistake to narrow his range that much by check-raising. On this board a ton of hands make a pair and a gutshot that might call two streets so it makes no sense that you want him to fold those hands on the flop.