Sunday Million ITM. 600ish left.

Had just been moved to new table (no reads on villain).
Villain instant jams over UTG open.

Call or fold AQ here?



Poker Stars, $200 Buy-in (2,000/4,000 blinds, 400 ante)


Hero (BB): 49,488 (12.4 bb)
UTG+1: 97,968 (24.5 bb)
UTG+2: 122,811 (30.7 bb)
MP1: 69,390 (17.3 bb)
MP2: 73,770 (18.4 bb)
MP3: 54,094 (13.5 bb)
CO: 149,154 (37.3 bb)
BTN: 134,212 (33.6 bb)
SB: 98,160 (24.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q A

UTG+1 raises to 8,000, UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to 68,990 and is all-in, 5 folds

Hero??

i think there's no other option than gii
maybe if it would be like 50-60 left than i could find fold here

gii all day ?

Can't see MP1 shoving here with AJ AT KQ. Folding. Hope the math guys do some analysis on this hand though.

This is right. We are 46% against 99+, AJ+ we don't need to take this risk with 12 BBs. Look for better spots as they should come imo

Note: AK is actually 54% against same range, funny how much AQ sucks compared to AK

fistpump gii with 12bb

would be tough if we had 20bb,
with 12bb, can't really see an option for folding. only calling TT/AK seems way to tight

I think its pretty close either way. i think 12bb hard to fold imo

You have to call this. Snap call as he is reshaping this: 22+, A6s+, ATo+,KQo, QJs+. With the initial open and his rejam this is yum yum call.

Lol, your range is not even close

Snap folding, never ahead.

Fold, you can't be ahead, and what about the original raiser?

I would say the MP range is AK, 88+ which you can probably almost be priced to call given the first raise and antes, but the original raiser may have you both or at least could fold some of your outs.

UTG raise is always AA

snap folding.

Can't tell if you're trolling or not... Lol either way

LOL im never folding here


i even have a yum yum hand

If this spot arises again, I think I would sigh fold. It's very situation dependent - I think timing tells and meta-game come into play. I think we're just crushed by MP's range, not to mention UTG still to consider. I also think 12bb stack can find much higher equity spots given the tournament structure.

Uhm seems like you're getting a lot of absolute hand strength opinions.. This is a fairly easy sigh fold, we are behind MPs range, and the price doesn't quite justify calling with UTG still to act.

Folding and pretending I hand T5o and moving on though, calling a SB open shove with Q5s will show more profit here than this.

To all the people advocating getting it in can you tell me what are the ranges you assign to UTG+1 and MP1 here ?

This. I don't understand why a 10bb-ish stack means we have to get it in with any premium hand even if we are pretty sure we're losing

listening to you guys make me sad ! Snap call here, talking about this hand is ridiculous,

I had a similar spot in a live tournament and called incorrectly with AQo (live read gone bad, or maybe the shover really thought AK was weak, or maybe he got me good with a reverse tell, who knows). I think had I been playing better, I would've folded and I think this hand is a close fold too. You have to hit the parlay of:

1) utg opening wide. Unless it's a reg who you know opens wide utg, you have no reason to believe this.
2) mp knowing that utg opens wide. You just got to the table, you can't know that for sure. I guess you can check to see if he's playing heaps of tables.
3) mp having the heart to act on that knowledge. Even people who know in their heart-of-hearts that shoving 66 and KTs is profitable against a loose utg opener, they'll pass on it because they don't want to bust. On the other hand, it's also shallow ITM in the sunday million so people have more incentive to pull the trigger than usual.

FWIW HRCalc says it's a +0.49bbs in cEV against "nash" ranges. Those ranges have the shover ripping KTs, QTs, QJs, KJs, and some 77-55. If we remove 66, 55, QTs and KTs from the shover's range, AQo becomes +0.11bbs. Seems like the quintessential "pass up a tiny edge to preserve my mtt life" spot.