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Interesting spots in the big 2 Interesting spots in the big 2

04-25-2013 , 08:07 AM
So you won it despite losing half your stack that early Good job, NSB! It seems most people agreed that folding turn is best play but ingame while masstabling its kind of tough to fold 2 paar + FD. Good for you bringing that spot up
04-25-2013 , 09:30 AM
pf is a losing play
04-25-2013 , 10:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eagles2.0
pf is a losing play
Yeah but sometimes I'm 2-tabling and DGAF
04-25-2013 , 11:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bparis
c) tournament life / stack playability arguments are completely irrelevant this early
Quote:
Originally Posted by KKrushed
So you won it despite losing half your stack that early because you preserved your last 1800 chips
EAT IT BITCH
04-25-2013 , 01:13 PM
LOL @ FOLDING PRE FLOP... STOP.

flop and turn is fine i think river is a pretty easy fold.
04-25-2013 , 03:04 PM
Stealth is the only one good enough of the above posters that can say 140 is bad without elaborating. It would be nice if he did, because he's usually right and I'd like to hear this thoughts. The rest of you can eat a bag of (insert Louis C.K. joke)...

For those that's say it's so blatanly obvious, please enlighten me. MP1 only has 1400 chips on flop. If we go 180-220 on flop, then a random might ship it with AJ/AQ/88 since he doesn't want Q10s/flush draws to get there there and we'll still call with AK/AQ. If we go 140, better chance he makes it 390 and we can just call once since we're 40% vs his range with 2 cards to come and would rather peel than pile it in. We're definitely stacking him the times we hit our flush. A randoms MP1 range against UTG+1 open is going to be tight so we can make these assumptions about his range.

Let's say MP1 just calls our turn bet and we can narrow his range down to AQ/A10s. If we bet 140, pot will be 620 and he'll have 1,295 behind. MP1 is more likely to flat when the pot is smaller vs the pot being 700 and us betting 300 may just elicit him to jam when there's more than 1k out there. I'm sure the lot of you would just bet 500 and commit yourself on the turn because you overvalue pair+FD with one card to come. We have around 30% vs his likely range on a blank turn and is breakeven to bet/call off turn.

If you say we can't bet 140 it's because we need to bet the same amount with our whole range, do yourself a favor and quit poker.
04-25-2013 , 03:49 PM
You make way to many bold assumptions in your analysis that of course are not always true. If your main argument is that when we bet 140 so we don't get shoved on the flop then you should prob just stop posting. What about the times we bet bigger and hit? The times he would've floated a smaller cbet ,but folds to bigger? The times he straight up just folds Ax assuming NSBs range to be to strong when cbetting?
04-25-2013 , 04:16 PM
That is just 1 argument and can you break down why that's an incorrect reason other than saying stop posting?

These are my assumptions based on my experience of how people are going to react based on pot size and stack size behind. Villain might not react how I want him to, but I might as well try to increase those odds.

You really think he's going to float you on this board with player left to act and against our perceived UTG+1 range? Try again. Anwyays it doesn't matter if he floats because we are still betting the turn.

Bottom line, calling 140 a terrible sizing and people acting like it's so fricking obvious is a joke.
04-25-2013 , 05:51 PM
spending half the thread debating the merits of 140 vs 180 is the joke I believe

Ben - the tourney life comment was directed at the guy who suggested check(lol)/jamming somewhere before the river so that you'd have a more playable stack size (?), although I'm sure you knew that and I'm just wasting valuable pixels/seconds of my life here

Me responding to that guy in the first place was pretty -ev to begin with
04-27-2013 , 02:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bparis
man this is some awful advice up here ^ wtf would make you think he has J8? he overflatted the small

seems like a fold to me, I like the flop / turn line. You lose to AJ, JJ (if people other than me overcall JJ in this spot), KQcc, A8s, and 88, and I'm not sure what we expect to be beating by the river since KQcc got there and we have the T and 8c both blocked.
This^^^
04-27-2013 , 02:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dudeoflife
Stealth is the only one good enough of the above posters that can say 140 is bad without elaborating. It would be nice if he did, because he's usually right and I'd like to hear this thoughts. The rest of you can eat a bag of (insert Louis C.K. joke)...

For those that's say it's so blatanly obvious, please enlighten me. MP1 only has 1400 chips on flop. If we go 180-220 on flop, then a random might ship it with AJ/AQ/88 since he doesn't want Q10s/flush draws to get there there and we'll still call with AK/AQ. If we go 140, better chance he makes it 390 and we can just call once since we're 40% vs his range with 2 cards to come and would rather peel than pile it in. We're definitely stacking him the times we hit our flush. A randoms MP1 range against UTG+1 open is going to be tight so we can make these assumptions about his range.

Let's say MP1 just calls our turn bet and we can narrow his range down to AQ/A10s. If we bet 140, pot will be 620 and he'll have 1,295 behind. MP1 is more likely to flat when the pot is smaller vs the pot being 700 and us betting 300 may just elicit him to jam when there's more than 1k out there. I'm sure the lot of you would just bet 500 and commit yourself on the turn because you overvalue pair+FD with one card to come. We have around 30% vs his likely range on a blank turn and is breakeven to bet/call off turn.

If you say we can't bet 140 it's because we need to bet the same amount with our whole range, do yourself a favor and quit poker.
Because you complimented me, I will elaborate a bit on why 140 is terrible with any part of your range.

On the texture AJ8cc after raising utg and betting into two people....you are going to have 0 pure bluffs and your range is hit the hardest as you raised utg and weren't reraised. Because of this you want to charge draws more and get more value/setup getting stacks in with your value part of your range. When the worst possible hand you could bet on this flop is QTs no fd or 9Ts no fd etc.

From a non-whole range standpoint and exploitative stand point, you should only be betting 140 if you are trying to setup a bet/3b. And because nobody is raise/folding AJ8cc vs a utg raiser really its just rather ambitious. I think you should bet more than 180 even.

Its a little late, I just tried to reread what I wrote but I gave up. Sorry if it
doesn't make much sense. I bet galen types would do a better job of explaining. You just have to think our range interacts with your opponents ranges and in this spot betting 140 will not do anything to make our opponents ever make a mistake or get us any value.
04-27-2013 , 04:36 AM
fold turn
04-28-2013 , 05:49 AM
how else would you want to play flop? and i guess you could make arguments for folding turn but id station

id play it the same as long as you folded river
04-28-2013 , 09:12 AM
pre fine
flop slightly bigger imo
turn is close fold or call, im tempted to muck it

i think ingame i would fold turn rly fast and post this hand prly here^^
04-28-2013 , 03:16 PM
interesting spot and responses, that have me baffled since im not a tourney player. im trying to come up with a logic and respective ranges that are consistent with b/calling flop and folding this turn, but all i can come up with is consistent with either b/folding flop or calling flop+turn. what r u tourney guys doing differently? you all seem to think that sb's range is heavily weighted towards value on all post streets, however, calling flop will put us in a bluffcatching spot a high % of the time, but if there's nothing to bluffcatch.. what's the flop plan if we're gonna fold this turn, and which of the incentives to call flop do not transfer to the turn decision?
04-28-2013 , 08:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeverScaredB
Yeah but sometimes I'm 2-tabling and DGAF

FYI I think outside of pf you played it perfect (assuming you fold river)
04-30-2013 , 11:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eagles2.0

FYI I think outside of pf you played it perfect (assuming you fold river)
Dude stop making such a big deal out of pre flop, it's likely not -EV depending who is behind and at worst it's gonna net OP EV -20 chips or something.
04-30-2013 , 11:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by samooth
interesting spot and responses, that have me baffled since im not a tourney player. im trying to come up with a logic and respective ranges that are consistent with b/calling flop and folding this turn, but all i can come up with is consistent with either b/folding flop or calling flop+turn. what r u tourney guys doing differently? you all seem to think that sb's range is heavily weighted towards value on all post streets, however, calling flop will put us in a bluffcatching spot a high % of the time, but if there's nothing to bluffcatch.. what's the flop plan if we're gonna fold this turn, and which of the incentives to call flop do not transfer to the turn decision?
I think this post needs more love

It does seem somewhat inconsistent to call flop / fold turn - are we doing this because of his sizing, or because the additional bet further narrows his range?

Also claydol -20 chips of ev pre is kind of a lot when the bb is 40 chips
04-30-2013 , 11:59 PM
Both further narrow range, improves some of his club combo draws, etc. Would obv not consider folding turn on 8x or club.

20 is a lot yea but firstly I think that's like worst case and opening could easily be profitable for a good player like OP depending on players behind, my point is for an open that is worst case slightly -EV it's absurd to make such a big deal out of it when more interesting and bigger decisions are in the thread.
05-01-2013 , 12:33 AM
I don't disagree with samooth about ranges, but the pot odds + implied odds make it profitable to flat flop raise, especially in position. NSB is getting 5:1 to call and can assume he has at least 11 maybe 14 outs, so greater than 5:1 to improve. That alone makes it worthwhile to peel flop and at least reevaluate turn. I think a strong argument could be made for folding flop if villain sized the c/r in the 600+ range.

The turn sizing is strong enough and villain's range narrow enough that flatting (especially since implied odds aren't that great if we believe villain with c/f bad rivers) is no longer is profitable.
05-01-2013 , 01:30 PM
im interested in this spot because i recently starting talking some strat with some hs mtt players, and i feel we disconnect a lot, not necessarily in the way we play out certain hands, but more in the way we think about hands in general. i hope to not bother anyone here with posting some questions/statements, as my tourney sample size is quite small and i really havent done any studying when it comes to tourney poker (im mainly a hu cash player).

first of all, let me say that when i read the thread i thought that, given the responses, T8cc must be a fold pre UTG+1 when we are playing out the hand like suggested on a texture that smashes both our actual holding and a huge chunk of our perceived range.

i was also very confused when lissi posted that we cant even disregard J8o from his preflop range - usually a wide range pre translates into wider ranges post, no? i dont know a$$ous but you all seem to recognize him; it seems unlikely that he will flat the sb rly wide pre vs an early opener and a mp caller and then take this line and end up with an extremely unbalanced range at the turn, containing mostly (only?) value hands. seems like he will lose quite some money with those preflop flats? ofc theres also the argument that he will just not take this line as a bluff too often because of the specific texture and his range being capped while ours isnt. idk

as for the turn improving some of hands in his x/raising range - would this be closer to a call for you if we had 78cc and the turn was a 7? 86cc and turn is a 6?

as for pot odds, we need 27-28% to make calling turn immediately profitable. if i plug in a turn range out which every single hand has us beat ott and that isnt completely unreasonable we get:

Board: AcJc8sTd
Equity Win Tie
MP2 26.14% 26.14% 0.00% { Tc8c }
MP3 73.86% 73.86% 0.00% { 88, AJs, A8s, J8s, KsQs, KcQc, Qs9s, Qc9c, 9s7s, 9c7c, AJo }

seems like its close to us being indifferent about calling and folding; not regarding the fact that we are ip which usually favours calling a bit?

two more things id like to add/ask: when we only continue turn vs a bet when we hit an 8 or a club, dont u think that he might give up on a lot of his flop bluffs on these turns? esp an 8 seems like a bad card to barrel. also, what is our continuing range ott? seems kinda narrow and very exploitable to me.

thx guys
05-01-2013 , 02:13 PM
Can't look at equity vs pot odds as more than a mere baseline when there is extemely likely a river bet coming, 3 street game yo

He doesn't know we have 8xcc exactly so doesn't mean he never bluffs these cards, also even IF that's the case you said yourself the price we get us good enough almost immediately based on pro odds, finally our continuing range depends on our betting and our flat (instead of 3-bet) flop range. Obv if you personally always 3-bet the top of your range on flop vs check raise then your turn range is weaker
05-01-2013 , 02:25 PM
i sure meant it as a baseline OMG: vs that specific range we can just capitalize the 26.14% by clicking call on 8,T,c rivs and folding everything else, right? if we widen his range our baseline equity goes up as we are now ahead vs some of his holdings, and can play poker ip otr. maybe thats the point why so maynppl want to fold turn because they believe they are in a -EV spot otr, but it seems kinda counterintuitive to me.
05-01-2013 , 03:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by samooth
i sure meant it as a baseline OMG: vs that specific range we can just capitalize the 26.14% by clicking call on 8,T,c rivs and folding everything else, right? if we widen his range our baseline equity goes up as we are now ahead vs some of his holdings, and can play poker ip otr. maybe thats the point why so maynppl want to fold turn because they believe they are in a -EV spot otr, but it seems kinda counterintuitive to me.
This assumes he's jamming two pair hands on every club river. We can't just call to improve here because a) when we improve, it's to the 2nd best hand sometimes b) when we improve, he doesn't put money in the pot with the 2nd best hand sometimes.
05-01-2013 , 03:36 PM
sorry, im confused. when deciding whether or not to call turn, we need 28% on the 920 we put in to break even. if we play a simple static strategy where we call every 8, T, c, fold all the rest & (for the sake of simplicity here) check back every time he checks, we're capitalizing our equity and sort of break even on the turn call. am i missing something?

ofc riv is another story but i really struggle with folding turn here when we can play this ^ dumb naive strat and break even vs a range that contains 100% value hands that have us beat.

edit: got it, your point a) is valid, sry. aynway, i jsust put up the equity so show how close this is. would rly like to understand why calling flop folding turn is proposed as the best line here by so many.

Last edited by samooth; 05-01-2013 at 03:44 PM.

      
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