Think flop and turn are both interesting spots with lots going on. Villain is noted pre-flop caller a$$ou, other guy is a random. Thoughts on all streets?

I'm happy getting a lot of big blinds in on the flop or turn, mainly so I don't have to make a decision like this on the river

as played I call, only hand I'm scared of is J8

man this is some awful advice up here ^ wtf would make you think he has J8? he overflatted the small

seems like a fold to me, I like the flop / turn line. You lose to AJ, JJ (if people other than me overcall JJ in this spot), KQcc, A8s, and 88, and I'm not sure what we expect to be beating by the river since KQcc got there and we have the T and 8c both blocked.

AJ and JJ are surely in his flatting range that early in the tournament when he is in the SB. Adding KQcc and 88 to his range makes it almost easy fold. Obv he will sometimes turn some total crap into awful bluff but I doubt that is the case at 20/40 in such a tourney.

I guess Ben wanted to discuss flop/turn more which seems reasonable, as the river is pretty much an easy fold imo

We do face something of a reverse implied odds problem vs a strong c/r range so perhaps we could find a fold earlier in the hand? I definitely don't want to reraise anywhere

I think turn is a fold after some more thought.

Go 140 on flop so that you get better odds to flat in case someone raises. 108c has around 26% vs his range on turn. If you assume you stack him all the times you hit a flush, then you are essentially calling 920 to win 4,187(18%).

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

704 games 0.000 secs 140,800 games/sec

Board: Ac Jc 8s Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 73.722% 73.72% 00.00% 519 0.00 { JhJs, 8c8d, 8c8h, 8d8h, AdJd, AhJh, AsJs, Ad8d, Ah8h, KcQc, Jd8d, Jh8h, AdJh, AdJs, AhJd, AhJs, AsJd, AsJh }
Hand 1: 26.278% 26.28% 00.00% 185 0.00 { Tc8c }


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this analysis is flawed ^ since we almost certainly do not stack him the times we hit a flush, we have a serious reverse implied odds problem here as our range is heavy in flush draws so there's a good chance he c/f's flush completing rivers with his two pair / sets and stacks us with his higher fd's

as counterintuitive as it may seem to fold the turn when we improve to two pair I suspect that is the correct answer

also think your point about his flop sizing is some extreme nitpicking / hindsight being 20/20

I don't see what 180 accomplishes that 140 doesn't. It keeps the pot smaller the times they have Ax(and they are only calling with one pair) and makes it cheaper for us to barrel the turn. We can just increase our sizing slightly the times we hit our flush to build the pot.

If you think you don't get paid off when flush comes on river, then yeah it's an easy fold(and you're probably right that he doesn't). If you do, then it's just a question it's worth taking a marginal spot in attempt to double up early on.

Betting 140 on that flop with any part of your range is dumb

I'm sorry I thought the turn was a 7, now I'm really confused about the turn and yeah you can't call river

Don't lie. 7 makes what you said worse anyway.

I don't see how the turn being a 7 changes his preflop range, and it only changes one of the hands that beats us (KQcc) into a hand we still beat

on a more general note I don't think any reply that can be paraphrased as "get it in somewhere cause I don't really feel like thinking lolz" belongs in HSMTT, it's OK to just read the threads without posting if you don't have anything constructive to say

(this likely applies to many of my posts here as well ^)

Why would I want to keep the pot smaller against one pair of aces?

cause you're behind obv

herp derp

It's just a combination of saving yourself a few chips when both of them call and will be more natural to bet turn less if the pot is 120 less. I agree the difference is negligible but why not?

This flop also hits there range pretty hard so if you make it 140 and get raised, people may raise smaller vs this sizing. In this example if you went 140, he may go 420 and then pot would be 1,360 on turn and then a natural bet for him would be 750.

Another reason for the smaller the pot, the less they feel committed to the pot and then you can bomb river if you miss and they have to fold AQ/A10.

Shane's argument does have me convinced though and this is all probably just rubbish.

just realized my 1st paragraph and last contradict themselves. They can have AK too which won't fold so I change my mind and think giving up is best on river if they just call down and you miss.

Was going to post this basically. Glad someone beat me to it.

+1 on the bet sizing, although mainly to keep your options that little bit wider with a tricky equity hand. Any information on a$$ou's playing style?

As played I think I would fold river - not a lot you are beating, and quite a lot you are losing to...1800 into 3327, i don't think you are going to win enough times at showdown here to make calling profitable.

Check-shipping the turn is a very viable option also with the 2 pair and flush draw holding, and works out well for the bet sizing/pot to stack ratio; the main reason for me though is because of the starting stack size in this specific tournament and effective stack sizes on the table; in these tournaments where we have a 3k starting stack and such a big field, if we do not get going early then it is hard to steadily progress to the later stages of the tournament as our spots become limited by our stack size and there seems be a lot more preflop/showdown action (maybe just me) where there is less edge. So I don't mind getting in it first (check-shoving turn) and taking the pot there or taking on a big pot with a relatively strong holding/flush draw.

Interesting hand...what is the difference between his check-raising range on the flop, to his check-calling range? (considering he flat preflop from the SB multiway and with the flop texture?)

so much fail in this thread ffs

a) you can't check shove in position
b) the turn is much closer than a fold to a shove
c) tournament life / stack playability arguments are completely irrelevant this early

sorry I meant shoving over his turn bet

I think tournament life/ stack playability is relevant at all stages of the tournament

Fold unless u have some good reads on this player

fold pre for sure

don´t discount j8 even offsuit in a$$ous range

probally fold the turn as he mostly has us beat, we can´t call for flush profitably and even if he has a bluff we sometimes lose the hand because he can still bet the river

don´t bet 140 that´s terrible

So much bad advice, Clearly bet bigger than 140(which you did) for pretty obvious reasons. I do agree the turn is a fold though, reverse implied odds, lost equity when he bets river and we fold etc.

yea 140 is dumb, 187 seems about right, could go a lil bit bigger
flop could be a check tho
turn is nasty, pbb not folding ingame but looks like the better option
he never has AK
jamming turn is ******ed

I don't think river should be a question