SNGplayer24, you're right, ICM calcs do not factor in future EV
It's not even about skill, if you have a good stack and good position 5 handed deep in a tourney your EV is going to be significantly higher than ICM. Your future chip earning potential can change a lot based on situation and ICM doesn't reflect that.
So a proper ICM evaluation would be to also factor how valuable ending this ft bubble quickly would be, since bparis isn't in the best situation with a bigger stack on his left and people who will shove pretty correctly on his right.
You probably need at this spot something over 49% equity to call mostly because the antes are not fat (only 0.5+1.5 vs say another case 1.125+1.5 with 9 at table and higher antes) so due to icm reasons you tend to not be very happy with say a pure chip EV 45% that say 12.3/(13.3*2+0.5+0.5) suggests.
The situation is stressful for the small stacks at the table for the same reason of smaller antes plus the fact the others are not massively larger and there are several as small as them so what might have been ok push range near 35-40-45% in say a 9 person table for btn (with an extra 0.625 in antes) probably goes down to 20-25% here. He will get called by the blinds about 20-25% of the time as well so like 10-12% each.
This is then what takes QJs equity near 45% far less than 49% likely needed.
So its an ok fold. You can call with KQo or say 66,A9o,KJs etc
As a side note the SB push range however remains pretty high here ~ 50% exploiting the fear of BB to get in trouble with so many other smaller left.The BB simply cant avoid needing at least 4-5 times tighter calling range. Its an interesting question however how to play here as SB with semitrashy hands (raise/fold?), is avoiding a significant size push better since in order to work you need BB to actually recognize that he needs to be tight and a spite call or an icm fail may victimize a correct but wide SB push.
Last edited by masque de Z; 05-04-2013 at 05:36 PM.
You're trying to invoke ICM as a reason to play tighter than normal cEVwise, when the argument could be made that you should be slightly looser than 0 cEV in your current situation(aforementioned gigablox!). While I have no interest in arguing that point and dont necessarily agree with it, this is a pretty good scenario to snap take anything thats netting you even a tenth of a chip