SNGplayer24, you're right, ICM calcs do not factor in future EV

It's not even about skill, if you have a good stack and good position 5 handed deep in a tourney your EV is going to be significantly higher than ICM. Your future chip earning potential can change a lot based on situation and ICM doesn't reflect that.

So a proper ICM evaluation would be to also factor how valuable ending this ft bubble quickly would be, since bparis isn't in the best situation with a bigger stack on his left and people who will shove pretty correctly on his right.

I call

ive seen a bunch of different "optimal" shoving ranges here and am wondering which one is the correct one? like 47% seems a bit too loose for it being 5handed i think?

on the other hand it might be better to shove 47% instead of say 33% because good regs will call tighter than nash would suggest (because of ICM).

also agree with thay3r that ICM is flawed in a few ways so we shouldnt take it as "the one truth" and consider/evaluate other factors as well.

If u were shorter stacked like in 9th of 11 it becomes much closer, here we should be more hesitant to gamble.

seems like a fairly easy call

well, if he gets QJs to fold then jamming wider than equilibrium due to ICM pressure increasing fold equity can't be too bad

at equilibrium (this is off the top of my head and not precise) you can jam something like 22+ A2+ KTo+ K8s+ QTo+ Q8s+ J9o+ J7s+ T7s+ 97s+ 87s 76s

if they're not calling wide then just add a few more fun hands

ya i have a chart like this but since different people gave different ranges i was wondering if mine might be wrong.

It's hard to determine exact ranges since people shove different depending on what ante % they have in their charts I pressume.

Not to mention people don't have static ranges. We're not samurai.

looool you made a thread about this

no u

I fold because of ICM issues

You probably need at this spot something over 49% equity to call mostly because the antes are not fat (only 0.5+1.5 vs say another case 1.125+1.5 with 9 at table and higher antes) so due to icm reasons you tend to not be very happy with say a pure chip EV 45% that say 12.3/(13.3*2+0.5+0.5) suggests.

The situation is stressful for the small stacks at the table for the same reason of smaller antes plus the fact the others are not massively larger and there are several as small as them so what might have been ok push range near 35-40-45% in say a 9 person table for btn (with an extra 0.625 in antes) probably goes down to 20-25% here. He will get called by the blinds about 20-25% of the time as well so like 10-12% each.

This is then what takes QJs equity near 45% far less than 49% likely needed.

So its an ok fold. You can call with KQo or say 66,A9o,KJs etc

As a side note the SB push range however remains pretty high here ~ 50% exploiting the fear of BB to get in trouble with so many other smaller left.The BB simply cant avoid needing at least 4-5 times tighter calling range. Its an interesting question however how to play here as SB with semitrashy hands (raise/fold?), is avoiding a significant size push better since in order to work you need BB to actually recognize that he needs to be tight and a spite call or an icm fail may victimize a correct but wide SB push.

You're trying to invoke ICM as a reason to play tighter than normal cEVwise, when the argument could be made that you should be slightly looser than 0 cEV in your current situation(aforementioned gigablox!). While I have no interest in arguing that point and dont necessarily agree with it, this is a pretty good scenario to snap take anything thats netting you even a tenth of a chip

Not even close to a call

sick icm spot...

its +chip ev and $ev qj off is a fold q10s is close qjs snap

results (not that anyone gives a ****): I called and lost to KQo

wasn't trying to be RO posting this, obv knew it was +cev vs his range but was genuinely wondering how bad it was icm-wise

So if this hand happens tmr, what are u doing, calling or folding?

in most tournaments I fold, in this tournament I call? not sure if the thread really resolved the question definitively in either direction

I went on the assumption that the total chips in play is 1 300 000. I think this is about reasonable.

I modelled Hero as 5/11 and BTN would have been 9/11:

Other table stack sizes used:

194k
175k
80k
51k
227k
13k

Using Nash Equilibrium BTN shoves 34% and we call 14% making QJs a -0.04% of prizepool call.


Now, I also modelled it making BTN the shortstack so stacks were as follows (however you are now 6/11):

83k
110k
168k
136k
77k
167k
136k


Again using NE, BTN shoves 36% HERO calls 16% making QJs a -0.01% call.

Hope this helps, good post pbaris, good spot I think.

Pete

wish I could edit my name typo above. Sorry bparis!

this is a classic call, because of stuff