late 100R, remaining field is like all good regs, villain is MAMOHT_T without getting into too many specifics about his game, basically think he's close to optimal jam range here

we calling this? we are 5 of 11 at the time, don't have exact stack distribution but assume the other table has roughly similar stacks to this one

payouts are
13910
10028
7602
5661
3882
3235
2588
1941
1294
1132 for 10-11th


[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $100 Buy-in (2,000/4,000 blinds, 400 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #17244161

BTN: 53,188 (13.3 bb)
SB: 106,178 (26.5 bb)
Hero (BB): 120,750 (30.2 bb)
MP: 215,846 (54 bb)
CO: 61,323 (15.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J Q
2 folds, BTN raises to 52,788 and is all-in, SB folds, Hero ?

ran JQs vs a range of {A2s+ A2o+ 22+ 67s 87s 97s+ T9o+ J9o+ Q9o+ K8o+} and got 46.2%, getting roughly 43.7% from pot... does icm swing that to a fold? and how accurate is that range? if one of the resident ICM wizards could help out on this would be awesome - not sure how highly to value it since it doesn't bust me to call

down to gamble

Call.

I think he could go wide as wide as 22+, Ax+, K3s+, K9o+, Q5s+, Q9o+, J7s+, J9o+, T7s, T9o+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s when you are playing 5 handed and he is on the button. Thats roughly 38.2% but it includes monster such as AA,KK,AK that he might minraise (or not if he is truly that optimal?). So:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

779,098,320 games 0.047 secs 16,576,560,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.177% 47.55% 01.63% 370457573 12680802.00 { QhJh }
Hand 1: 50.823% 49.20% 01.63% 383279143 12680802.00 { 22+, A2s+, K3s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, A2o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

I dunno even if he discard few combos of monsters that he is r/c with still its pretty much a coinflip or we are slight favorite. Guess its a fold due to ICM.

gigabet would call Q2o here. GAMBLE. GIGABLOCKS.

question for those well versed in ICM - does ICM take into account future situations? I mean obv when we get a bigger stack we can put more pressure on the short stacks thus picking up chips at a much higher rate....I feel like ICM would be a major factor when your short, but with a stack like this much less of a factor

seems like an easy fold with icm factors, but i have no math to back it up.

I can do the exact math if you want but then I need total chips in play(rebuys, addons etc) to get an avg; of the other table.

I would give MAHMOT_T credit for not splitting his range here and just jamming all of it, but I could be wrong on that, so I'm going to assume AA KK AK is in there

Will look up the total chips in play one sec

If he calls and wins - sure - he will be able to open lighter and accumulate chips in a low variance approach. However if he calls and loses half his stack he will be one of the shortest stacks and then he will be unable to raise/fold and chip accumulation will be possible only with optimal shoving pre, which is high variance though. Its ICM fold because the benefit when he wins is having a stack of 45BB opposed to 30BB, while the cost when he loses would be having a stack of 15bb opposed to 30bb. When down to 15bb your ability to win pots drastically decreases compared to 30bb, while when he has 45bb he will be able to open slightly wider compared to 30bb and possible it would allow him to 4b/f. In short, the benefits of winning a potential flip are way smaller than the costs that could occur if he were to lose the flip.

Maybe I wasn't clear with my question but I was more interested in how ICM calcs are influenced by future spots to chip up....I mean obviously if player A is a great MTTer, and player B is an average MTTer, they should be making very different ICM considerations and I'm not sure if the "calculator" takes into account for that....basically I'd be curious for someone to expand on how skill factor effects an ICM calc if at all

I am assuming I have essentially no edge vs the remaining field, I'd like to think I am not at a disadvantage but I definitely don't think I have an extra edge from chipping up - the remaining field was very tough

sigh, looks like the lobby already disappeared so I can't get total chips in play - or is that info on sharkscope / somewhere else?

pricepool/100*unit of chips (if rebuy=/addon estimate roughly)
pricepool can be found everywhere

Ok, lets do it assuming the other table have as much
chips as we do on this table and they are all even
in stacks.

Lets assume he shoves around 37% - we have close to 49%.
(22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q5s+,J7s+,T6s+,96s+,87s,A2o+,K9o+,Q To+,J9o+,T9o)


This makes the call profitable by slightly over $300.

If we change his shove-range to a bit tighter one, lets say 34%;
22+,A2s+,K6s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,87s,A2o+,K9o+,QTo +,J9o+,T9o

we still profit $270 with the call.

However, if the spot is very close you should obv fold bc of variance and your estimated edge in further play.

Also since we don't have exact stacks it could vary a bit. Really close one.

Sorry for the long time to respond, was grindin.

no problem at all obv, really appreciate you running the math on this one

I don't think I have much edge over the remaining field so I'm happy to grasp at any additional $EV I can get in this spot

Tomate modeled an estimate which says that GTO is BTN should shove 47% and that BB should call 35%. The ranges maybe be a few points off, but I'm not sure which way as it's hard to account for being 2 tabled. This is even before considering stack playability after.

BU 47.2%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K4o+ Q3s+ Q8o+ J6s+ J9o+ T6s+ T9o 96s+ 98o 86s+ 75s+ 65s 54s

BB 35.4%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K7o+ Q7s+ Q9o+ J8s+ JTo T9s

I pass.

Icm calcs assume equal skill and wouldn't factor in bolded.

Pretty sure id call here

He should be shoving 33.3%, 22+ Ax+ K5s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J7s+ JTo T7s+ 97s+ 86s+ 76s 65s and you calling 22.2%, 22+ A2s+ A5o+ K9s+ KTo+ QTs+ for it to be +cEV but think that it probably a fold as utility of winning and having 45bb is not as great as losing and having 18bb stack ( IMO ) though it is confirmed ball ache spot.

agree with the last part of this a lot, nice post.

but would u call king 7 suited

thats not nearly as pretty sir