I just meant that theres a HUGE difference between JT with a flush draw and JT w/o one in most ppls eyes. Very few ppl are willing to put their ME on the line with just JT w/ 1 card to come in this spot, but that changes a lot when they pick up a fd too. And ya i mean ppl can show up with random hands like qt or J9 or w/e but theres <1% chance of him turning over something like that. Pretty irrelevant when it comes to making ur decision. IMO its JT w/ flush draw, T7 w/ flush draw, 67 w/ flush draw, 99, 88, or 89 95% of the time and theres only 3 combos of draws and like 20 combos of boats. Plus sets and 2 pair are more likely to raise the flop.

Ya of course sets and 2 pair are likely to raise the flop, but they're also unlikely to shove the turn so you just have to discount them so heavily. And someone who slowplays 88 or 99 to the flop 3bet is NOT someone who is going to shove when they boat like, ever, so I think 88 or 99 can be ruled out pretty much completely. I think you're right that JT with a flush draw is much more likely to shove the turn, and I just think so much more likely than 89 to do so that I can't see folding when we have those hands drawing dead.

As far as ringo's post, I hear what you are saying and it definitely has merit, but I'm not willing to use one hand where someone shoves 2x pot with AK on a K64 board to turn something which I would call and expect to have 90% against a range or more (this situation without the read) into something where I would fold. One hand in a not very similar situation just isn't enough to swing this hand the other way where this is such a clear call otherwise IMO.

dont like flop raise, and doubt i'm folding too often here in game. honestly think it's pretty close tho as i doubt he raise/calls flop with a random 8 here often if ever. i agree w/ Vanessa tho, really think it's JT more then anything else here. i just can't see this villain just donk shoving 89 when he fills up on the turn here.

I don't post often, but this hand is so ridiculous that I just can't help myself. You're beat on the turn about once in NEVER! He's not overshoving a full house here. He's getting in better hands on the flop (as well as 98). So from my limited experience at the poker tables, I can pretty safely say that you made a horrible fold. But we live and learn. As for those commenting on how the rest of the hand was played, give it a rest. You built a massive pot and got the guy to spew off 25k on the turn drawing dead. Just say call and take the chips imo.

I think it's a call. Very few hands are ahead, and with history, you can't honestly say that you can put villain on them. If I had to guess, he has A8s or something like that, and is thinking that he is way ahead with chances to improve further. Sorry, cant fold boats even in big tourney, even against a shove, without a very strong read.

He neither snap calls flop with top/top or snap shoves turn with second boat.

Shout out to 'lolusernames' for reviving this post...you dug deep into the archives on this one

For me i think there are a few things in play that i want to comment on:

1. I think that the fact that this is the ME affected your decision making. This shouldn't happen. Playing optimally is the same regardless of what you're playing. You would NEVER fold this hand in a lesser event right?

2. This SCREAMS misplayed overpair. I think you see AA or KK here more often than almost any hand. The smooth call pre makes sense from a weak player, the flop raise fits when he sees a seemingly safe board, and the turn jam fits when he sees the board pair and a FD come and he panics and believes shoving is the only way to 'protect' his hand.

3. If he had any of 88, 99,or 89 why is he waiting for the turn to get it in? When i was young and stupid the way i always used to play the nuts was to smooth call and cr turn...isn't that a more realistic approach for even a donk with the nuts on the turn.

4. This could be a complete bluff. Flop raise could have been air easily and then when you raise, he thinks you're just bullying in position snd thinks to himself "i'm going to jam the turn and see what he thinks about that!" Even a bad player has 2nd level thinking, so he's putting you on something...and it's NOT 22.

In summary, my thoughts may get laughed out of town...but each of them has some merit which leads to the same conclusion...YOU CAN'T FOLD THIS HAND.

When in doubt, resort to hand strength in a vacuum and this is an easy call...whether it be your $50 home game or the ME.

+8mill

was actually thinking about this one the other day before it was revived...

first thought- the ak hand where he 3bet oop pf- while i'm inclined to believe him is still just speculation- he could have been lying!! even if he wasn't, since the last time he made a play like this the guy folded, he might be expecting a call here if he's playing rock-scissors-paper. Or, he might just be an overaggrodonk.

as for the flop whether to 3bet or flat. against a smart, thinking player a flat is pretty unbalanced, since you're never flatting here w Ocards. But, I wouldn't assume this opponent to be perceptive enough to realize a flatting range is superstrong.

3betting, however, can still rep a bluff- so I think against a smart opponent, I prefer to 3 here.

Against this guy, i'm think i'm 3betting and hoping he either jams it in or flats and jams the turn. this is obv a puke turn. i still think he could be overplaying TT or JJ that he wasn't comfortable enough to 3bet pf. or he could be trying to generate fold equity w a variety of semibluffs that I don't think are limited to those that picked up a fl draw on turn.

or he could have 89. i just don't see him snap shoving here w the ~nuts now that tj is drawing dead and Opairs are drawing to 2 outs. i'm still calling.

just wanted to add that i think its more likely he made the decision to jam the turn on the flop than seeing that the 8 improved his hand and making a snap-decision to shove.

also, i'm less committed to a call now than i was 6 mos ago or whatever.

This This This.

Old guy shoved because he was scared of Q,K,A hitting the river to beat him. Stop LOL, and know its true. Be thankful, he left tons of value on the table, and will continue to do so.

As has been discussed, this guy is not looking for value or deception. He wants to scoop what is already in the middle. Period. That's how we know he has 89, and not 88. It would be a lot easier if everybody thought at the same proximal elevated level. They don't, and the player range in the ME is especially wide.

If the SB is taking a bit of time to act, it could make it appear like bb is acting fast on his decisions on the flop... I think villain can have A8 here a decent amount of the time. Some people can't just fold to raises, hoping to hit two pair or trips. Villain raises the lead from the sb to figure out where he is at... doesn't like to fold to raises, so calls yours hoping he is good or to improve. Once he hits the 8 on the turn, he gets it in hoping to get you off your draw if you have something like J10, or call if you have an overpair or a 9. Believe it or not, some people think this way.

Are you seriously saying he is snap shoving second boat for protection in case we have an OP and hit a 2 outer w/ 1 card to come?

Quit poker.

LOL.

Nah, I'll keep playing. And I've seen this player type do this sort of thing, more than one player, and more than once. The OP alludes to this in the manner in which villain played AK earlier. Its crazy, its stupid, and they do it. He may even think he is value shoving and OP can never fold KK. From villain perspective a fold or call are both perfectly fine, but he would hate to have to watch the river peel. He wants the chips already in the middle. He never has an OP, and he never has a draw. Stuff that makes you wonder how the guy managed to scrape together the 10k for the entry, I know.

But hey, call him down and wonder how in the hell he jammed a boat as you are hitting the door.

LOL @ nits

As Vanessa said

a) they are completely different situations

b) you can't fold a boat based on one hand (that is completely different anyway)

why does he snap jam if he has it though? on such a dry board, if he has 89 does he not wanna keep u in there with hands hes beating which is everything really? i call then cry when he turns over 89 and make a threa about if i should have folded lol

As a 50's white man who plays extremely poorly against excellent competition like yourselves, I would like to point out that assuming villain did have 89, he almost got a call. OP tanked for 5 minutes before folding. And he got one of the best players in the world to comment in this thread that she is calling all day every day.

If I had 89 there I would go through this thinking process: I am way overmatched in this tourney and it would be great to get it all in. What is the best way to get it in and get called? If I check here it looks like I am on the draw (edit: or I have top pair would likely need trips to beat an overpair) and is OP really going to bet his overpair when he can see right through me and know I'm not calling another bet on this paired board? Also everyone pot controls now so this is likely to get checked back on the turn. On the river what am I going to bet? If I shove, the overpair is going to fold. So lets make it look like a play I should never ever make unless I have a draw. Sometimes experts overthink it and call...

I'm going to try to apply simple logic here.

It's very hard to imagine he has a full house here. But is even harder to imagine that he DOESN'T have one.

His hand play doesn't make much sense regardless of his holding. Some argue in the absence of logic from the Villian, rely on your hand strength. I argue, rely on tells....bet sizing tells here. This sort of opponent won't put his WSOP main event on the line without a full house here. He's not going to make a play to put pressure on you here with some draw, not for 25k. He's not capable of that. He flatted your flop three bet out of fear because he wasn't sure he had a 100% winner. On the turn, he got there, he feels totally confident, so he bets big. That's what this player type does. Yeah he might have some other hand he played illogically, but a full house is so likely, you aren't getting the right price. Fold.

Just wanted to add that if some guy playing a 10k who is not a regular, really quickly shoves, for over pot after the flop gets 4bet he probably has an extremely strong hand, and given that he likely peels 89o in the bb he has plenty of combos of hands that we lose to.

Noone has mentioned he could have slow a played pre aa or kk here.

That's because the likelihood of that is slim to none

How people who fold boats in such spots here even get 10k to play main? Did you like stab people for their pocket monies in your local mall for two weeks straight to finally gather that 10 grand?

First of all, you never know if that guy really had AK hand before. Second of all, if he had - it makes sense for older people to overplay top pairs like that. Third of all, that hand history is completely irrelevant, because pushing AK on K64 rainbow board assuming you are ahead is nowhere close to pushing second nuts or quads on 2898 board.

Like why the hell are you leveling yourself against random old fish dudes? Just fist pump everyone at the table and call for christ sake.

I'll tell you my secret: my wife made me watch "True Blood", and I learnt the art of glamouring people, a sort of hypnotism. When I mastered that craft, I posted a thread on the marketplace selling the main at 1.5, and a bunch of weak minded individuals bought it in about 45 minutes.

I made them believe I had several top 3 finish in big MTT's, and that I had worked for long periods of time with some if the best mtt players around.

Of course they didn't do any research, trusted what I said, and there you go, action sold.

Don't share my secret tho, I might try the same trick this year

bro, when can I buy your action

so you can fold boats or just, **** it, don't fold boats, don't even play ME, just put my money on fire or buy kids cocaine or something. It would be more +EV than folding boats for sure.