id pay

if he really had 89, great fold, but I don't think I'd have it in me to fold a boat with how he played it (even tho I know it mirrors his earlier play with the nuts, still gonna stack off to him here)

Don't 3-bet the flop. Hate life now.

Good fold buddy.

This hand has been bugging me and i know its tough spot but do enough people insta jam a full house here after flatting the flop 3 bet ?

He has a lone 8 here way more than he has 89. You guys are crazy.

my initial thought but really think its hard to put him on a bare 8 having raised the flop AND called the flop 3bet.

Does 89 flat the flop here? Beacausr surely big pairs are more a part of your range here. Agree that he has spazzy 8 here more than fh. Did the second 8 make a flush draw? If so could he be jamming TJ/67 suits?? Still think 8's with no fh are big part of his insta shoving range.

same. This is why we flat the flop, so we feel less guilty when we bust out calling it off.

folding not terrible, that being said i would never fold

never ever folding this

Raise/folding has to be the worst available line. Either call or raise/call

I agree with this.

Pre is fine if the table isn't overly aggressive, and you're deep. These conditions seem to have been met.

Good fold. Congrats, you were practically freerolling after that, because not many would have made that fold.

If I were playing, I would snap call and lose sleep over it for a week.

Just cause the guy said he had AK on the earlier hand doesn't mean he did

flop raise sucks. doubt i can fold it.

I think you have to fold. Pretty unlikely he is going to raise the flop and call and even bigger raise with Middle pair. The only think that makes sense is 89 and I doubt this player would have the guts to shove JT on the turn.

what's with all the online winners folding monsters in the main.. the game's still fullring, people don't suddenly start getting monster hands all the time against us.

I can only say that this exact situation has happened to me at least five times I can remember in smaller tournaments and I have yet to be good one time. Nice lay down.

i can see that an 8 is unlikely.

but 67s, 7ts, tjs, and more combos of 67o and tjo make this an impossible laydown imo.

i also think you'll see some weird **** here from this type of player- like the terribly played overpair that he thinks he's protecting, or the strange 8x he fell in love w/ otf, and random spazz.

also, don't understand the hate for the flop raise.
am i calling to control the pot and hope he doesn't keep firing w a bigger set?
am i calling because a raise over-reps my hand?

to me, when a reasonable player cold calls a raise like this, it looks super strong anyway- so i prefer to go ahead and raise to try to get value out of old guy's semi-bluffs, 2p, and any other hand he feels momentarily inclined to pursue.

Dont like the flop raise and its actually a pretty easy fold now. You dont beat anything. Pretty much 0 chance he just has a bare 8 given flop action and i doubt hes just spazzing off with like JT/67/JJ in the main event. If the turn brought a fd then it sucks a lil more cuz he can have JT or 67 of that suit but thats still only 2 combos of hands u beat. And ya obv snap shoving turn with a boat or quads is terrible but its pretty obv that he is terrible, especially given the earlier hand where he had AK. I see people just shove in spots like this all the time with the nuts, show the other player the hand when they fold and laugh about it cuz its almost like they dont really care about winning anymore chips since the pot is already so big.

OP--

I want to say that I like this fold, but I folded threes full having raised 33 UTG+1 on day one of the ME, and maybe I just want to feel good about that fold now.

Vanessa thinks that this guy could get to the turn with a naked 8--I'm inclined always to believe her, but I don't really see that here. If I were to call, it would be out of extreme confusion plus our absolute hand strength, and also because snap-shoving a 'safe' turn makes a lot of sense with a hand like KK.

I'd also like to know what happened in the five hands leading up to this one, as shoves without the initiative like this one usually have a pretty big emotional component, and so could be more sensitive to recent events than other plays would be.

All my best,

--Nate

i'm not the best counter, but if you think he can get to the flop w 67o, then there are 36 combos of 67, tj, and 7ts.

he could have 10 combos that have us drawing basically dead, but all of his semibluffs are now drawing dead. also, if you think this guy is never showing up w/ badly played Opairs, you're kidding yourself.

how are you weighting his range? do you think he's taking this line w/ his boats ~100%? how often does he take this line w semibluffs?

For one, I'm taking this line w 89+ ~0%.

i just think it's silly that many of you guys are assuming this random 50 yr old with a baseball cap plays like a standard 2p2er, so "nothing makes sense except 89." well guess what? 89 doesn't make sense either bc why the F would you ever shove the turn instead of checking, and certainly why shove that big with the nuts... in my experience when absolutely nothing makes sense the way your standard tourney reg would play it, and you would never EVER see this line from a competent player, so you just have to throw all assumptions out the window, assume he has no clue what he is doing, and default to hand strength which would obviously indicate a call - i think this is basically what nate is trying to say.

like i don't like d peters statement he "can have JT or 67 of that suit..." as if he's only allowed to bluff hands with lots of equity in the face of our very strong line. obviously that would be sensible for him to opt to only bluff with very strong hands, but in reality nothing is sensible, so once again, he can actually have QTo for all we know. or A5, what the hell. turns out he's allowed to play this way with any 2 cards at all. i remember in the women's event in monte carlo when i c/c, c/c, c/f with AJ from BB against LP raiser on a A934rK line against some french chick. At the time I thought no hands picked up turn equity really so it's so hard for her to triple barrel, so that's a pretty standard way to play my hand. Then immediately after I regretted the fold and realized that her sizing made little sense. When I asked her what she had she immediately said "Jack eight" in a way that I think she was telling the truth because it would be so absurd to lie by snap saying "jack eight." It made me remember that you don't have to have equity to bluff - in fact, you're allowed to bluff whenever you want! That hand has sat with me for a little while and I think led me to play weird hands better throughout the WSOP.

just my 2 cents.

as an aside, i agree with almost all of you that he almost never has an 8. i think the most likely hand you see is JT with the suit that came on the turn. however, i think you see JTo or a lone 8 maybe more often than you see 89 even. when i said "he has a lone 8 here way more often than 89" what i should have said to clarify was "he almost never has either one, but it's probably a lone 8 more than 89." i think it's gonna be a straight draw that picked up equity (or thinks it did i guess) or some really absurd hand more often than either of those though.

OP provided us with a read that counteracts this. Villain previously overbet shoved in a spot with the effective nuts where he could have won way more by checking. Imo that's a really relevant hand that tells us a ton about how he plays. I'd be surprised to see this type of villain put his main event life on the line with JT.