First, some background and reads: we have Ryan Daut, Mark Radoja, Madrid EPT winner, myself, and a bunch of tight randos. After 10hrs of play not a single player busted, and table's CL had ~45K.

Our villain: 50 some yo man with a WSOP academy cap, sun glasses, and a tendency to bet big post flop.

Hand from 3rd level: EPT winner opens button, villain 3bets entire 3x from SB, button 4bets to ~4500, villain flats w 20K behind. Flop K46r, villain snap shoves. Button tank/folds what he claims to be QQ, villain didn't show but says he had AK.

The hand: I open 750 with 22 from UTG +1 (I got 3bet 3-4 times the entire day, opening can be arguable but with 45K stack at 150-300-25 on a passive table it seems fine). EPT winner calls from SB and villain from the BB.

Flop 2-8-9r. SB leads 1,200, BB makes it 3,500 quite fast, I take some time and raise to 8,500. SB folds, BB calls fast. Turn 8, he snap shoves 25K more. I tanked for 5 minutes and folded.

Flame away...


PS: after last break of the night he swore to me he had the infamous 8-9.

IMO villain's range in this spot = 89s and... ... ... wait for it... ... ... ... 89o

Seriously -- the way he played this it seems almost for sure that he improved on the turn. Seems super-unlikely he would raise flop and then flat a 4-bet and then donk huge when the turn pairs board if he had something like A8 or J10... so definitely seems like we're beat, and like he has exactly 89 almost all the time here. I guess it's vaguely possible that he has a higher set and he donked turn big when the full house improved his hand even further, but that seems much less likely to me... and it beats us, too, anyway.

This is the sort of fold people usually figure out (if they ever figure it out) after the fact on these forums or while parsing the hand with friends, but rarely manage to make at the table. IMO great fold.

you sure you want to open 22 utg there mate? i mean you are kind of shallow, having only over 100 biebers.

He could have 99 as well and even rare 88 added to 89. He could have had "nothing" as well hoping you had some overpair and able to fold to a shove after the board paired. However its hard to argue for a bluff happily due to the sizes of the bets up to that point it would take tremendous audacity and confidence in you folding AA,KK QQ here.

Now the pot is already big by turn but if you have the 99888 or 88999 or 8888 why push all in at turn and not try to get the opponent to do that or basically secure an all in by river. Maybe betting half his remaining stack or even less to secure a call or a push even? Last street bet is 8500.He has 25k left and pot is already big, not as big as 20+ but nearby. Why then push for over pot here instead of say 10k and secure a worse fh calls or some AA,KK or a rare trips or even an 89 (when he has 99) still doesnt feel ultra scared and of course 22.

I think pushing with 89 or 88 or 99 at this spot is idiotic. But i probably still fold very unhappy because unless opponent is very loose spewy etc the strong action so far screams set over set or 2p that became fh etc. I doubt he is eager to bluff here especially with you covering etc. Still doesnt like his turn push.


Ps: Also dont like open 22 with 7 left to act. But its not very bad, just worthless hand without a set post flop if you get called and out of position plus ridiculous to call a potential reraise with etc.

Well played. Pf is fine

just out of curiosity for those saying they feel this is def 89, why do you think this kind of villain would just call instead of jamming the flop? Given the play in the AK hand, and the fact that he snap called after your raise, I'm having a hard time believing 89 OTF

I can't fold here...

Think open folding preflop would be bad with 100+xBB and several mediocre players to act. Getting a 3-way pot like we did is a good result. If you are likely to get mulitiple callers rather than 3-bet HU, open is very profitable.

Why would villain donk shove for more than pot close to the nuts rather than checking to the aggressor? Not sure what he could be this way on both streets that you beat though. Seems unlikely he could just be making a play and do this.

^exactly what I was gonna say...he turns the essential nuts, he's really just open shoving into you??? idk man, seems kinda weird, but certainly possible. would he definitely 3bet tens or jacks preflop?

Yeahhh. Folding here is awful.

Pay the man his maney ffs

Your thinking like someone with a pulse. This guy open jammed his AK when he made TPTk in a 4 bet pot. He seems to be a Rec player in the main event and just turned the nuts. He doesn't know why he is jamming.... He just is. I just have to give a guy like this credit for the nuts

I wouldn't three bet the flop. As played the fold is fine.

I don't have a 3bet flop range for value here. I'm pretty sure you shouldn't either.

Turn is probably semiclose but I am pushing the button in the middle with a smile. He has potsized left and even though he claims to have had AK in the earlier hand you can't really do anything but weight the range a bit away from 8x/JT/T7/2%spew in the direction of 89/99/88. I'm not saying livereads/history doesn't matter and if you feel like you made a good fold you should trust that. I hate it though.

don't think I can fold to a snap shove on turn. Did turn bring a fd? Close though. I trust your live reads/instinct at table from playing with him. On paper though nobody is going to tell you to fold in a way ahead/way behind spot where there are so few combos that beat you and he takes an idiotic line.

If villain was good or even competent = totally different spot.

I feel like sometimes the analysis on HSMTT assumes that everybody is thinking on a certain level, but even in higher-stakes events, this isn't always the case. I've played enough random home/club games and similar to have a feel for bad opponents (who still have money and play at mid-high stakes). These guys exist, and they don't think like 98% of the people posting on this forum.

I honestly think (if description of villain by OP is accurate, and I have no reason to think it isn't) that villain virtually never has anything but a boat here. Bet huge when you know you're good is a simple (and common) donk line. Villain obv had a big hand on flop but didn't want to commit... however, turn made him happy to commit. I know it's horrible, I know he's bad, I'm not saying (in any way, shape, or form) that villain's play has merit, but I strongly believe turn locked up villain's hand (in his mind) and OP's fold is correct.

I agree that villain's line is awful, that it's horribly non-optimal with value hands (or ANY hands), etc. ... but villain is NOT a good player. I would honestly be shocked if OP is EVER good here.

Folding full houses in the main event you say?

yeah i can't fold here

but maybe thats why im here posting and not playing in the ME

Not folding.

If he has 89 just go to the room and play on stars....

oh wait.

Maybe fold.

are u kidding me? ridiculously easy call and thats not close

impressive

Def hard to see him take this line with any combo of the nuts.. 88/89/99. It's good to trust yourself and go with your instincts. I have a hard time believing him here. Anyway like a previous poster said. Maybe that's why I'm home and not in Vegas playing the ME. Glgllg go feltstars!

Yeh, maybe a donk plays this way, but his line doesn't make sense with close to the nuts, so I wouldn't fold.

I agree with people saying that some fish will lolgoallin when they turn the nuts, but don't you think those kind of villains would be inclined to jam 89 or possibly even 88 or 99, and not just call a 3-Bet from us which would indicate we are relatively committed (at least to a fish?)

I think he could have 89 and trying to get aces to call. Don't know, I think it's villian read dependent situation. Is probably fold wait for a better spot.

He may not have 88 or 89 but most times he will. This is for tournament life no point in chancing it.