EPT Berlin ME: KK and 2 All ins early - High Stakes MTT Strategy

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EPT Berlin ME: KK and 2 All ins early

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04-29-2013 , 08:56 AM

Filip1d

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 25

Hi guys. The fact that I even post that hand makes it pretty obvious what happened but I am really curious what you think about that.

4th level of the Main Event

Blinds are 100/200 25 ante

Im utg w/ KK and 27000 behind and I open to my standard 400. I get 4 callers and guy on the BB (middle aged man) who covers me makes it 2500. I decided to just flat call and one of the callers (older dude) shoves for 15000. Action gets to BB who pretty quickly moves all in. Older dude is pretty loose and likes to play a lot of hands. BB is rather random TAG. Im probably viewed as young loose agresive kid.
Do you fold?

04-29-2013 , 09:41 AM

bvanlaanen45

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 225

it would be easy for me to read this post and say i would fold but lets be honest, i dont think anyone can find a fold here. you can try to come up with all sorts of reasons to find a fold but i think very very very few people fold here

04-29-2013 , 12:10 PM

NeverScaredB

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 8,314

Have you seen middle aged guy 3-bet yet? Is this close to his usual sizing? Seems awfully big and middle aged guys don't 3-bet much when they can just flick it in.

04-29-2013 , 01:12 PM

Beachman42

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 4,301

If ever there was enough evidence to consider folding, this hand has it. That's a big OOP raise from BB and if its close to a snap 5 bet shove, than what else could he have? This likely isn't QQ- or AK. Since you have two of the kings, he is likely bladed.

The problem is there's just too much in the middle to be won if you're wrong.

04-29-2013 , 02:12 PM

Filip1d

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 25

Im not sure but I think it could be his 1st 3b. Do you think that after older dude shove he is folding QQ or AKs? He probably would be ahead of his range and my flat calling.

04-29-2013 , 02:56 PM

bparis

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 3,059

I would fold, but I'm way more prone to hero folding KK than most (and I am frequently incorrect, which is tilting as all hell)

If there was ever a spot to hero fold KK tho this is it

04-29-2013 , 03:18 PM

FatsoFat6969

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 3,987

I folded kk once pre.. I was wrong.. However this looks like as good a spot as any to do so and hate urself after

04-29-2013 , 11:43 PM

NeverScaredB

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Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 8,314

Quote:

Originally Posted by Filip1d

Im not sure but I think it could be his 1st 3b. Do you think that after older dude shove he is folding QQ or AKs? He probably would be ahead of his range and my flat calling.

I don't think he's necessarily folding those hands, especially if he has the same read you do on villain. What was his timing like? Did he snap? Did he seem excited to get it in? Did he think for a bit?

I also don't think he necessarily makes it this size pre with those hands, but he might.

I'd watch his body language, tank a while, see if he feels comfortable.

04-30-2013 , 12:09 AM

BackRaiseNYC

banned

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 81

which caller backraise shoved is sort of important yo

btw you deserve to get punished for minraising KK utg at this stack depth in this spot.

04-30-2013 , 12:10 AM

#10

nonsimplesimon

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 9,530

This has to be one of the ****tiest spots in poker.

I think after it gets to me after the bb 3b there's no way I'm EVER fltting because KK seems to do better when its not mw. Also I would have to decide if I'm playing for stacks. If so, which i probably am, I would just either gii there or make it like 8000 or so.

Is gii with KK this early w these stacks so bad?

04-30-2013 , 01:15 AM

#11

CaliStyle

See my staking thread

Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 4,356

think we should be going at least 3x pre. Also in a soft live field this deep and his hand being nutted so often I think the flat by you and then folding in this situation is fine

04-30-2013 , 01:17 AM

#12

gettym

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 11,009

EZ FOLD MAN. BB HAS ROCKETS. SILLY GOOFBALL IN EP HAS LIKE JJ GETTIN REAL SILLY.

05-02-2013 , 11:39 PM

#13

Soepgroente

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 4,083

Quote:

Originally Posted by nonsimplesimon

Is gii with KK this early w these stacks so bad?

Theoratically maybe not, in practice this is never a bluff and you'll just blow him off of AK/JJ-QQ with a 4bet.

As played this is annoying but I think we can pitch it, hard for the big blind to be wider than QQ+ and the backraiser can easily have it as well.

05-04-2013 , 11:02 PM

#14

SickerThanYoAvg

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 126

Don't level yourself into thinking you can fold KK correctly. Maybe if its on the bubble you could consider it (although i wouldnt) but folding KK pre is just not a +EV play

05-05-2013 , 09:51 AM

#15

Izee89

enthusiast

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 98

Older guys range is AA or KK. FOLD

05-05-2013 , 11:59 AM

#16

nationstation

veteran

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 2,899

Quote:

Originally Posted by BackRaiseNYC

which caller backraise shoved is sort of important yo

btw you deserve to get punished for minraising KK utg at this stack depth in this spot.

both of these. no way you can fold if old guy was not first caller without a super strong live/sizing read on the 3bettor

05-05-2013 , 09:11 PM

#17

TeachMeToPotOdds1

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 445

What is the math on him having KK as well? Or does that even really matter?

05-06-2013 , 12:22 PM

#18

Beachman42

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 4,301

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeachMeToPotOdds1

What is the math on him having KK as well? Or does that even really matter?

(2/50 * 1/49) = 0.082% It isn't statistically significant here.

05-06-2013 , 12:36 PM

#19

NiSash1337

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Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 9,185

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beachman42

(2/50 * 1/49) = 0.082% It isn't statistically significant here.

Well isn`t that wrong if we narrow down his Range to for example QQ+ AK?

It would be QQ(6 combos) AA(6 combos) KK (1 combo) AK(8 combos)

6 + 6 + 8 + 1 = 21

1/21 = 4,76%

05-06-2013 , 12:42 PM

#20

WashUrHandsPlz

banned

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 2,570

Quote:

Originally Posted by nonsimplesimon

This has to be one of the ****tiest spots in poker.

not at all
its not like you flat squezze with KQ and other stuff.

Like bparis said its pretty easy fold when they both jam and you block AK strongly.

05-06-2013 , 08:49 PM

#21

kushgerb

enthusiast

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 61

This is sick sick sick

05-06-2013 , 09:29 PM

#22

MagicGog

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 3,295

Older man decided to call once so if he had AA he could call again and play a huge pot with several players. And probably he could shove something not premium. BB called him. He is strong (QQ+/AK) and I gonna call.

05-06-2013 , 09:38 PM

#23

lillalejonet

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 167

Weird flat with kings but you gotta fold now this early.

05-07-2013 , 07:15 AM

#24

Beachman42

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 4,301

Quote:

Originally Posted by NiSash1337

Well isn`t that wrong if we narrow down his Range to for example QQ+ AK?

It would be QQ(6 combos) AA(6 combos) KK (1 combo) AK(8 combos)

6 + 6 + 8 + 1 = 21

1/21 = 4,76%

That's an over-simplification that works well when you assign homogenous unknown cards. In this case, we know where 2 Ks are. He cannot be 4.76% likely to have KK here. It can be 4.76% of an assigned range but then you need to weight your range based upon everything else you know.