Hi guys. The fact that I even post that hand makes it pretty obvious what happened but I am really curious what you think about that.
4th level of the Main Event
Blinds are 100/200 25 ante
Im utg w/ KK and 27000 behind and I open to my standard 400. I get 4 callers and guy on the BB (middle aged man) who covers me makes it 2500. I decided to just flat call and one of the callers (older dude) shoves for 15000. Action gets to BB who pretty quickly moves all in. Older dude is pretty loose and likes to play a lot of hands. BB is rather random TAG. Im probably viewed as young loose agresive kid.
Do you fold?
it would be easy for me to read this post and say i would fold but lets be honest, i dont think anyone can find a fold here. you can try to come up with all sorts of reasons to find a fold but i think very very very few people fold here
If ever there was enough evidence to consider folding, this hand has it. That's a big OOP raise from BB and if its close to a snap 5 bet shove, than what else could he have? This likely isn't QQ- or AK. Since you have two of the kings, he is likely bladed.
The problem is there's just too much in the middle to be won if you're wrong.
Im not sure but I think it could be his 1st 3b. Do you think that after older dude shove he is folding QQ or AKs? He probably would be ahead of his range and my flat calling.
I don't think he's necessarily folding those hands, especially if he has the same read you do on villain. What was his timing like? Did he snap? Did he seem excited to get it in? Did he think for a bit?
I also don't think he necessarily makes it this size pre with those hands, but he might.
I'd watch his body language, tank a while, see if he feels comfortable.
This has to be one of the ****tiest spots in poker.
I think after it gets to me after the bb 3b there's no way I'm EVER fltting because KK seems to do better when its not mw. Also I would have to decide if I'm playing for stacks. If so, which i probably am, I would just either gii there or make it like 8000 or so.
Older man decided to call once so if he had AA he could call again and play a huge pot with several players. And probably he could shove something not premium. BB called him. He is strong (QQ+/AK) and I gonna call.
Well isn`t that wrong if we narrow down his Range to for example QQ+ AK?
It would be QQ(6 combos) AA(6 combos) KK (1 combo) AK(8 combos)
6 + 6 + 8 + 1 = 21
1/21 = 4,76%
That's an over-simplification that works well when you assign homogenous unknown cards. In this case, we know where 2 Ks are. He cannot be 4.76% likely to have KK here. It can be 4.76% of an assigned range but then you need to weight your range based upon everything else you know.