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Early WU boat river spot? Early WU boat river spot?

08-29-2010 , 01:21 PM
Poker Stars $200+$15 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t50/t100 Blinds - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP1: t8325 83.25 BBs
MP2: t9725 97.25 BBs
CO: t10100 101 BBs
BTN: t9125 91.25 BBs
Hero (SB): t9750 97.50 BBs
BB: t12800 128 BBs
UTG: t11050 110.50 BBs
UTG+1: t10225 102.25 BBs
UTG+2: t7900 79 BBs

Pre Flop: (t150) Hero is SB with T T
UTG raises to t200, 4 folds, CO calls t200, 1 fold, Hero calls t150, 1 fold

Flop: (t700) T 5 2 (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, CO checks

Turn: (t700) 9 (3 players)
Hero bets t595, UTG calls t595, CO folds

River: (t1890) 9 (2 players)

early villain is random/idiot
bet river for value or check slam?
also what sizing if bet?
08-29-2010 , 02:36 PM
Hm what do you mean by random/idiot?

Depending on what he is I think flop lack of betting defines his range. Like he probably doesn't have JJ-AA. So when he calls turn he must have a T, a 9, or a A/K of diamonds! Or a flush!

I think all 9's/flushes are betting and 5's/2's/bluffs are possibly folding to river (unless it's real small). So I would probably check/raise. Randoms would probably flat even smaller "blocking bets" with a 9 here since they don't raise for thin value imo.
08-29-2010 , 03:30 PM
I kinda like betting more than c/raising. I think most randoms aren't gonna bet that river too thin / as a bluff fairly often, but on the other side they might often enough raise 9x and a flush. The only argument for not betting is that most people will have a hard time folding a flush to a c/r on the river... still thinking that bet > chk.
08-29-2010 , 05:19 PM
c/r, doesn't seem close

more value from flushes, lot of 1d/straight draws that can bluff, 9x will likely bet

there are a few combos of Tx and maybe some guy hero-ing with 77, but think positives of c/r-ing far outweigh negatives
08-29-2010 , 09:29 PM
for the love of sunday bet the flop
08-30-2010 , 12:26 AM
lead flop
08-30-2010 , 12:43 PM
Checking the flop seems standard to me w/ relative position. I bet river and expect to get called very rarely. I think the only 9s we will get action from are quads and flush draws are checking the flop close to never. I think he has AK/AQ here pretty much always and is done with the hand. Maybe you can get value from like 88/77.
08-30-2010 , 01:14 PM
I think he is gonna check behind almost all AJ , AQ, AK , 88,77 so I guess you need to bet.
08-30-2010 , 01:31 PM
Relative Position is the only thing that makes the flop check semi close. Even then though I prefer leading a high percent of the time.

On river I think his range has more bluff catchers then things he can value and I think leading is far better than ch/r
08-30-2010 , 04:56 PM
meh I'm fine with the flop check, really don't think it's going to make us a whole lot more money here or anything. Gotta bet river though, as mentioned I think it gets checked back way too much. People will call ~1kish with 77 or A5 sometimes but they're like never betting (and when they are it's a really small donk bet that will also lose you value compared to leading prob. even if you don't often play a big pot).
08-30-2010 , 05:13 PM
I like checking, give him a chance to bluff with AdXx or KdXx or QxJx and value-bet his 9X. It's hard to see what we get value from that he's not betting himself since we can count on him almost always betting flop with Js+ & FDs.
08-30-2010 , 05:36 PM
I think leading flop is far better as the only time we are getting a lot of chips in the pot on the flop is overpairs in most cases. If he has AA, KK, QQ, JJ, you stand to get 3bet and if you have any LAG in your image they will float all flush draws and sometimes 3bet that too..

You are all right it is unlikley we will get paid off (that is true on every street of this texture) but I still think it has the potential to put way more chips in the pot. The board is very dry, this is a good fact when donking like this if your villan has spew in him.

Cliffs: I think the biggest point out of all of this is getting the pot bloated early vs any of his showdown range is greater value then getting a c/bet from his misses on this texture.

Flop in my opinion is like that old stupid saying, you stand to get 0 bets or 2 by checking here. From the same hands you stand to get 1 or 3 by leading.

All of this is splitting hairs tho. Can't make that big of a wrong decision by checking flop obv...
08-30-2010 , 05:40 PM
Bet 625 tournament chips.
08-30-2010 , 07:53 PM
check
08-30-2010 , 08:44 PM
nsb just quick ? about sizing-

isn't 625 possibly too transparent as obvious value, which could prevent him from calling as light as such sizing might dictate he's able to, or are odds really that enticing from your exp? i can see how he reasons through it like "omg that's such obvious vbet, but i mean, 4:1 he only has to be bluffing 1/5x so fml i call" but through that same line of reasoning shouldn't he be able to (at least sometimes) adjust and tighten up his calling range more than the odds dictate he's able to call, as you obviously are aware you offered him 4;1 which screams call me.

doesn't something like 889-1069 get called just as often? also because it seems more conceivable we could easily be chosing this sizing with more bluffs in our range as it appears to have more fold equity?

i realize it's kind of a moot point and maybe splitting hairs a bit, but i was really more just curious about your thoughts of river value sizing w/ the nuts in a vacuum than anything else.



as for the op, i feel like you've gotta bet here.. the obv benefits of c/r seem a bit less enticing as (imo) villains range isn't weighted enough towards hands that are betting this river, for value or as a bluff, as much as it's weighted towards hands that are checking back. pretty silly spot for him to try a bluff given the way this hand played out, and i can even see c/c w/ 88 in heroes spot not being overly horrible.


it seems he does have close to nothing though, b ut he hasn't been aggressive thusfar with it and i dont see any reason to expect he'll elect the final bet to finally come out of the closet.

= bet imo.

i like something like 989 - 1269
08-30-2010 , 11:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeverScaredB
Bet 625 tournament chips.
I think it's this, when he checks flop and just calls I think it's a lot of broadway hands with diamonds, every pocket pair 88 (except 55/22) and lower with a diamond, and very seldom a 9 or a flush, meaning you rarely will get in a c/r if you check. If he checked back 22/55, he's going to raise you anyway so I wouldn't worry about losing value against those hands.
08-30-2010 , 11:59 PM
I agree with the above line of thinking. With this board, it's likely that the hands that will bet the river (very few with villain's line) may just raise a bet anyway, so I don't think you're losing too much value by not check/raising. Betting small is going to be best so that you don't miss out when villian checks back a marginal hand that he'd call with.

EDIT: I might check if I had a bluffy read on villian as he could easily have missed the nut diamond draw...

      
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