I think you bet a set harder on the turn... no?

Heh, also notice that a smaller flop bet sets up a lot more FE on the river.

why the hell not i like it on all streets

As far as I am concerned the analysis starts on the turn because the reraise pre in position vs en utg open is obviously a strong play and the followup flop bet is mandatory given previous action and this ridiculously scary flop.

I really think that if the villain had anything real good on the flop that he would have to protect it by betting or ck raising and pretty much same goes on the turn. His whole line seems to indicate some piece of the flop coupled with some draw, where he has some showdown value but really would rather nail something better...

Once he checks the river I do not see how he has enough in his hand or in his balls to call this shove, and that the river shove is almost mandatory given previous action.

Obviously none of this is 100% necessary (why?), but the whole thing as a sequence completely works (why not?)

Do you ever have positive contributions...?

I doubt it.


Edit: I think you definitely have the "Villain's range is weak" part of a succesful bluff covered here, but not the "I'm repping a decent amount of hands" part, which may or may not matter against this Villain, but given your spazzy history with him, I'd tend to think that it does matter.

Which part of the range I provided do you not believe I play this way and why?

EDIT

It also obviously matters more which hands villain believes could be in my range than which ones are actually there. Which hands do you think are in my range that I can't rep and which ones aren't in my range that I can?

seems like spew to me

I don't like the idea of bluffing in this spot at all. This flop is a counterfeiter; when the original raiser keeps betting after such a flop, it screams 'bluff'.

But since you tried, you should now definitely give it up on that river. Villain will call with any J, any A, any xy (do you really think the preflop action makes 89 in his hand impossible? Come on).

absurd...not good.

the only street I don't like is pre. once you 3 bet I think it's fine I guess.
I'd rather shove on a blank on the river though than the ace, right?

fold pre

Flop and turn are burning money imo.
River can be okay, but I expect you to get heroed by two pair too often for it to be good.

Flop and turn are burning money imo.
River can be okay, but I expect you to get heroed by two pair too often for it to be good.

Seems good if you think he's folding his 2 pair since his range by the river is like JJ, AsKx, AsQx and maybe AA and AsJs.

Agree that you have problems repping many hands on the river though. JsJx seems possible, or Axss or 98ss or something.

Yeah I really don't mind this with the right image, but I think your general image is probably a little too spewy to pull this off, and I think he'll look you up a bit on the lighter side by the river. Given the history you provided he doesn't seem to be overly inclined to give you credit. Vs a 12 tabling nit I would love it.

I too dislike all streets

Seems pretty ridiculous to me. As played there is nothing else you can do but shove the river, so nh i guess. Sure plays like this will work a decent amount of the time, but you could probably find at least 3 spots per orbit every single orbit that would be equally as good if not better. Thats what makes it bad and the answer to your why not question imo.

the only thing about sizing is you seem to go ~half-pot/~half-pot/~2/3pot. doubt anyone is going to dissect that in real time tho.

I guess i'd be asking myself if he's capable of folding 2pair after flatting two streets with it b/c he has that hand at minimum

worst card in the deck for you and you wanna 3barrel it? i think i just give up, and i'm not really sure on this but i think an off suit king on the river might have been a better bluff

nh imo

.

well, if he is terribad as suggested AND you have been seen to be tryin to push him around, his natural bad player reaction is "blurrgh i cant let him bluff me i call", he will call u down much lighter than if you were a rando.

i dont mind pre too much cos it looks strong but again vs bad player we have to be careful that we dont get committted to bluffing against a player who KNOWS we bluff vs him.

turn and river for me are a decision made together, if we bluf the turn we bluff the river if cheked to.

i still think we get called by askx/asqx tho, cos hes bad

I mean u rep like so close to nothing IMO... that being said I like the line once we 3b pre here cuz he's never bladed here and almost can never call a shove on the river unless he feels like being a real hero..



edit: Villains perception of ur 3b range is going to be narrow even though it is you .. and there are so few hands that u can ship for value on that river (doubt that villain expects you to have many jacks in ur UTG+1 3b range so what exactly does a thinking player expect you to show up with here for value? But its still ok given that I don't think villain is a good hand reader... We are essentially relying on villain being really bad when we are making this play..