This happened when there were like 40 people left, 20 was itm
villain: 20/19/13.1 over 168hands
i also had a note about him:
"99rebuy 500/1000: UTG+1 2x, MP call, our hero shoves 22bb-s from BB with AJo"

Any thoughts?

[converted_hand][hand_history]Party, $500 Buy-in (300/600 blinds, 60 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 10 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

UTG: 26,791 (44.7 bb)
UTG+1: 20,610 (34.4 bb)
UTG+2: 56,414 (94 bb)
Hero (MP1): 37,783 (63 bb)
MP2: 37,416 (62.4 bb)
MP3: 18,634 (31.1 bb)
CO: 11,988 (20 bb)
BTN: 16,418 (27.4 bb)
SB: 37,422 (62.4 bb)
BB: 9,543 (15.9 bb)


Preflop: (600) Hero is MP1 with Q A
UTG raises to 1,200, 2 folds, Hero calls 1,200, MP2 calls 1,200, 3 folds, SB raises to 37,362 and is all-in, 2 folds, Hero ???

Im not calling this off for 64bb

edit: ppl like doing this with AK because they dont kow how to play it

if its a fully random guy, im snapfolding, because it is AK like 89,9% of the time, but this guy had a pretty high 3bet percentage, and he apparently wasnt afraid of playing flops. i couldnt imagine that he does that with AK and miss that much value. i just dont think he 3bets small with his junk holdings and shoves his premium range. just wouldnt make sense

but if i rule out AK, JJ+ it can still be a fold (maybe here comes in the icm..)

I would say it's a pretty clear fold, you're never going to be dominating his hand and he could easily do this with AK despite high 3 bet percentage. You can pick a better spot considering your stack size and icm considerations. Even if it's 88+ you're making a super high variance play that I think is -EV long run.

dont think ICM has anything to do with it, ur not even in or that close to the money

just dont think ur in great shape vs his range.

If u think he's a spazzmonkey and you think he jams suited connectors, worse Ax hands and never AK then you think u beat his range by a significant margin so then sure go with your read and make the call.....

w/h?

villans range: JJ-55,AQs-AJs,KQs,AQo+ (ive put in AKo, JJ just in case, but i dont really think that can happen, but u r the pros. definitely wont put in AKs, QQ+. u can see that i was expecting some dominated hands in his range as well..i just dont give too much credit for shove like this, but maybe thats my problem)
im doing 47.669%
pot odds sais 46%

so depending on (read+)this math its a close call. but i am not sure i should do these calls for 65bb´s when im in the top 5. thats why i was talking about icm.. but maybe i just get the whole thing wrong.

after a few minutes tanking i made the call and saw 88 and another one on the flop so i was drawing dead.
(actually this story has a happy ending cause i took down the tourney after getting down to 1/3 bb lol im just a luckbox)

Even if you are 1,7% ahead of his range what means you make 1,4k chips plus in the long run, isn't it still to close with your chipstack? Shouldn't you try to play more smallballish pots with that size and stealing the blinds when it comes closer to the bubble?

Can't figure out why you'd put 55 etc. in his shoving range and yet discount AKs and QQ+ completely. He's likely flatting some of those small pairs and I think his shoving range is weighted towards larger pairs and AK. Even if he tards out on occasion it seems pretty thin and I'd just fold and feel fine about it.

i guess you are right. it all comes down to the the willingness of gamble, and if u r a competent player u want to lower the variance as far as u can, right? so sometimes u gotta miss the slightly +ev spots for better ones. ok, got it.

about the shoving range:
maybe u r right in that too. i just cant imagine anybody this active wanted folds with a massive hand. he was 3betting normal size all time and then this push which obv wasnt designed to get called... but who knows what he was thinking...

what he said

This is a super ez fold ur range for him is too wide and this is way too many bbs

sometimes I feel like it's 2007

that makes me happy. ty

Fold sigh. Notice I didn't say sigh fold, because its an insta-fold, but sigh....

ez fold imo