I disagree. Any 'seasoned tourney pro' is going (well atleast should be opening a super wide range UTG only 2 from the money of a live 10k. Even if he wasn't playing like a maniac earlier, just 'active' as described, that doesn't mean he isn't going to drastically widen his range on the bubble, especially from EP. Also, no other information was given about the table, so I'm just going to assume it was an average table, not a super tough one.

Oh and I assumed it was 8 handed and did factor in the 5 possible overcallers behind (ignored over-over callers though). i assumed QQ+ for the 3 people to OP's left and JJ+,AK for the blinds. maybe too tight but I would think OP's reshove from his position would look pretty strong. also based on his post, I'd guess that OP was more likely to have a tight image than a loose one.

0.009(.34586*83500 - 0.6514*60000) + 0.008919(.34586*83500 - 0.65414*60000) + 0.008839(.34586*83500 - .65414*60000) + .019465(.42806*81000 - .57194 *60000) + 0.019076(.42806*78500 - .57194*60000)

if villain was going to be opening 50% of hands here don't you think he'd have given some indication of it on the previous bubble hands? i really doubt he's opening that wide, and think it's a close spot. if i had infinite money i'd jam i think, but it's closer than your +20kcEV estimate would make it seem like. and i think in OP's shoes it's an easy/good fold, i think i read he got in playing a $5r sat to the $700? the impact of a mincash on his bankroll should be pretty significant.

edit: also just because he has to play a little suboptimal near the bubble doesn't mean he shouldnt have sat'd into the tournament. especially this one that's basically like a family vacation.

Winner.

do you mean like showing down a mediocre hand from ep? or just a sudden increase in the amount of opens? either way, without being at the table, it's hard to conclude much. we don't know how long they had been on the bubble or how long OP had been playing with villain. but i think that someone who is described as a seasoned tourney pro that had been active is much more likely to have a very wide range in this spot than a tight one. 30-35 bbs is not a small stack. it's not like raise/folding 2.5 bbs is going to cripple his stack.

Life-ev wise it's an obvious fold so it's pretty much just a question of UTG's range and from what I've seen in liveaments I'd agree it's not going to be 50%. It might be some nebulous "a lot", but 50% includes Q7o. My experience is if someone's raising Q7o they're raising J4o/if someone's folding Q7o they're folding K4o, so there's pretty few people that raise half their hands - it's either 80% or 20%. And if someone's raising 20%, this shove is a lot worse.

OK, that was my estimate that he is raising, 20%. So if he calls half the time, you are 60% to win if called. So you steal 50%, double up 30%, and get busted out 20%. OK, sometimes there is a cold caller with JJ+,AK, usually the high end of the range.

So 20% of the time, you get busted out and lose $15K, for a $3K expected loss. Haven't done all the math, but the equity increases by doubling up or stealing should be a lot greater. You can't avoid all risk of busting out.

What was the initial stack and the average stack at this point? What was the buyin?

It is wrong to think because the payouts are flat for a while that increasing your stack doesn't add considerable equity. If you have 25% of average and double up to about 55% of average, that doubles your chance of making the final table.

If op really wants to cash, is another option to flat 10K, hope no one 3bets and hope for an ace, king or flush on the flop?

this is actually a really good point, and I think 20% is way way way more common than 80% given description of villain

I would weight it to around 25% on average

well i was just going with the 'active seasoned tourney pro' read. only opening 20-25% utg in this spot is burning $. i mean a lot of people in this thread want to fold AKs to a single raise!!

I dont think Q7o is even in the top 55% of hands you'd open here and there are plenty of people who are gonna raise most suited hands, broadway any ace any pair and a few other random offsuit hands which gets you close to 50%

Just shove really fast and in a very obviously strong fashion. He'll probably be folding quite a bit.

this, plus do the Beth Shak/Hellmuth happy dance as per the youtube vid Sheets posted in the live/online thread.

This is really bad, very surprised at some people being ok with a fold we play to win and villains oppening range justifies a clear shove here.

we play to win when the mincash is more money than we've ever won? dumb imo

only slightly more, considering he just recently won a $13k package.



15% of the prize pool gets hacked off at the bubble. chips after that are worth 85% of their original value. original value was 10k=30kchips, or .33 a chip. .33*.85=.28

.28*2,500(bb) means aside from how your stack effects your ability to mincash, each BB is worth approximately $700.

assume the guy is opening with 25%. the utg opener probably only calls with like 2.5%, and half of those are combinations of AK. 90% of the time he folds, and when he calls your equity is 40% (maybe a 2 bb loss with dead money). slightly less than 5% of the time, some other guy calls behind and your equity is probably 30%ish (3 blind equity loss after counting dead money). the other 85% of the time, everyone folds and you win about 5 blinds.

all things considered, folding shows a chip ev loss of about 4 blinds and - depending on how wide the guy is opening (or calling) it could be as much as 5 or a 6 blind mistake.



shoving gets called 15%ish of the time (probably less, that's a generous assumption), and you 'survive' that about half the time (your equity is lower, but against AK's you almost always survive even though your equity is represented as 50%).

so shoving can't reduce your chances of cashing by more than 10%.

arguably it could be as high as 15% with a more liberal call range from UTG, but he's gotta be aware of how tight you'll be shoving chips in there with.



the value of folding for the sake of increasing your chances to cash is approximately $1,500.

and the value of the chip EV sacrifice, as per the way it was calculated above, is approximatley $2,800.



And if you use a more liberal opening percentage for UTG, the chip EV error is even bigger.

Overall it's probably no less than a $1,000 error to fold, and potentially as much as a $2,000 error.

No one can say whether it's worth it for this guy to, but i would say that if he did want to fold in light of that information he probably should reconsider trying to satelite into these because - if you pass up on spots like this, it's unlikely you're profitable.

Just lol

shocker a seasoned tourney pro is burning money

I'd fold if I was OP. I do agree that the optimal play is a shove, however.