this is def a pretty easy shove
HOWEVER, given u paid 300 and 15k is a ton to u, id just nit it up and fold oh well whatever
id prob only jam QQ+ if i cared about the money that much

This made me LOL.

folding is terrible regardless of your bankroll

Disagree, if you're a busto with $0 to your name if you bust this tournament I think shoving is pretty terrible.

There is no set of decisions {Q} such that every decision up until this point was made correctly and that this is a fold, though.

I like the fold and never tell anyone that I actually folded AKs in your situation.

you do have fold equity here, probably a lot. but still this ^



I've done this a couple times

does anyone have a meta-ICM calculator using real life variables?

i dont think anyone including OP is going to claim this would not be a +cEV & +$EV shove.

but can certainly understand the fold, esp if OP is just getting back into poker, and $15k is gonna give him a good roll to grind mid-high stakes and turn into much more money.

I already did.

/end thread

I'm not even sure what people are arguing about tbh. It's just an obvious shove no matter what barring extreme circumstances. The people who don't have these extreme considerations and still want to fold are incorrect imo. Although I'm interested in the Todd Terry explanation if he goes into detail (and isn't leveling or devil's advocate'ing (sp/not really a word))...

My thoughts are similar to those of the guy above who talked bubble factors and posted Stoves. Due to the flatness of the payout structure, the equity gain from doubling here is dwarfed by the equity lost by getting eliminated. So you're going to need the original raiser to fold a huge chunk of his range to break even in terms of $EV, and your fold equity is marginal.

Your FE is significant, because the raiser may have a very marginal hand, and he probably puts you on JJ+,AK. If you are called, you a significant favorite.

The payout structure is flat for a while, but most of the money goes to the final table. Double up or restealing increase your $EV by more than you might think.

There is a significant ICM factor, plus most of the table to act, so that effect or range, even if the raiser is probably stealing and our push has a lot of credibility. So the question of what you need to resteal here is interesting. Don't think AKs is real close though.

i haven't read the thread but i'm willing to believe folding could be correct at certain tables for the reason todd gave, 224th paid roughly 75% of 100th iirc, i certainly felt it was correct to play extra nitty on the bubble with a short stack

when you approach the decision from purely from a bankroll management persective, this becomes a perfect example of why people who are not bankrolled for a main event still aren't when they satelite in, broke people near bubbles accidentally employ a form of kelly. if their bankroll is 1k and it's the bubble for 15k, folding JJ here could be ok here if you make some other assumptions about how they use their bankroll and win rates.

Yeah, if you are a short stack right on the bubble, you should play tight. The bubble period is typically pretty long. Some people are pretty obviously stealing and a short stack can shove on them. With some resteals and a double up, you can come out of the bubble period with an above average stack.

I know aobut the prizes being flat for a while, but if you have an averge stack at the end of the bubble period, your expected win in something like $80K. About 20% of the prize pool is given out to just cash, but the majority of the prize pool goes to the final table.

nah

who had the 200k stack that bubbled or whatever

How the Bubble Burst
Posted: Fri, Jan 08, 10, 12:04 PM

Justin Bonomo raised to 12,000 preflop on the button and John Leathart made the call from the small blind. The flop was dealt 877 and Leathart checked. Bonomo bet 20,000 and Leathart made the call.

The turn fell 10 and Leathart checked again. Bonomo fired out 45,000 this time and Leathart made the call. The river fell A and Bonomo moved all in. Leathart made the all-in call and Bonomo flipped over 87. Leathart mucked his hand to the full house and he was eliminated from the tournament.

= kleath

iirc

hud kleath

"Leathart made the all-in SNAPcall and Bonomo flipped over 87."

Betgo,

I don't follow your logic here. I totally agree that V can define Hero's range to JJ/QQ+ and AK. If he calls knowing this, Hero cannot be a significant favorite.

Please explain

there's no way in hell this is a fold. why do people keep referencing the fact that OP is only in for $300? it's no different than if OP directly bought in for $10300. The only factor in doing an $EV/ICM calc is the cash payout, not profit. It's not like it matters how many rebuys you made in the $100r when determining the correct decision on the bubble. I understand the concept of utility, but even if OP wants to fold because the money is so much to him that doesn't make the correct play a fold. If the amount of the min cash is going to significantly hurt your play near the bubble, then you should not be entering a satellite into a big buy-in event if you must play the seat.

I'm not very good with bubble factors, but I did a cEV calc that shows how massively +cEV a shove is. I'd be pretty surprised if the bubble factor made this a -$EV shove.

I assumed the opener was opening 50% and calling TT+,AK, the 3 people to OP's left were overcalling QQ+, and the blinds were calling JJ+,AK. i think 50% is a pretty conservative estimate of the opener's opening range. if he's a good tourney reg, he could easily be opening 100% here depending on the rest of the table.

If we have AcKc, QQ+=0.9% of hands, JJ+,AK=2% of hands, and TT+,AK=2.5% of hands

Given that we get all folds (0.991*0.991*.991*.98*.98*.95)=88.7967%

everyone behind folds and opener calls: (.991*.991*.991*.98*.98*.05)=4.6735% and we have 43.375% equity vs TT+,AK

the overcalls don't really affect things much

(.887967*23500) +.046735(.43375*71500 - .56625*60000) + 0.009(.34586*83500 - 0.6514*60000) + 0.008919(.34586*83500 - 0.65414*60000) + 0.008839(.34586*83500 - .65414*60000) + .019465(.42806*81000 - .57194 *60000) + 0.019076(.42806*78500 - .57194*60000) = +20,444.7 chips

if my math is right, that's a pretty massive pick up at 2500/5000, especially for a 60k stack. also, we're not going to be busting/bubbling much at all given that we're getting folds well over 80% of the time and have decent equity when called.

im willing to change my opinion if someone shows some bubble factor calcs, but until then i can't fathom not shoving

Presumably the raiser is raising loose right on the bubble even in early position. Say he is raising his top 20% hands, but calling with his top 10% hands. Then he folds half the time, but AKs is 60% to win when he calls.

DJK:

Given OP's description of Villain ...

... there's no way in hell he's opening anything near 50% from UTG here with a 30-35 BB stack.

And OP is UTG+2, IDK how many are at the table but presumably there are at least 5 players to his left.

This.

Four years back and I would trash AA on the spot.