In any other situation I'm happily shoving my chips. Further from the bubble, if he was doing this in later position, smaller tourneys where the initial money didn't matter as much to me. Obviously, from a strictly EV consideration I was making a mistake by folding.

You guys are right, he's going to fold a lot of his range here. I thought about ICM, and it's been awhile since I've studied these situations closely, but I felt the $0 to $15k jump made this a closer decision. I just saw myself shoving here, having the floor call out "all-in", having a dozen TV cameras and like a 100 ppl rushing over to cheer for me to bust. On the bubble in a $100 tourney, I'd forget about it easily. But, I don't think I could have lived with myself had I busted in this position, I would have been depressed for weeks. Yeah, not a strictly impassioned mathematical decision here, so perhaps I pissed my pants a bit here . I certainly didn't hesitate later in the tourney when I pushed with 55 when I was only a couple eliminations from going from 17.5k to 20k.

As it turns out another player pushed behind me that had me covered or very nearly so, it was folded around to UTG who called. UTG turned over AQ and the all-in showed QQ. A King flopped and I would have won a huge pot, though UTG perhaps folds to two all-ins behind him.

I'll try to post more now that I'm back playing. Despite the score, I need to tune my game up.

What was the score then? Nice hand to post in the wrong forum, tho that was on purpose

You ppl ITT saying insta snap shove are nuts. This is a fold because of $EV 15k is a **** load of money.

Oh, I see, there's a high stakes MTT strat forum now, sorry about that. The AKs hand was the only real hand I had on the bubble and I made the money. Shortly thereafter I shoved AQ vs the same villain's shove (he was short too now) and beat his ATs. I peaked around 150k, but this was still very short at this stage. Pushed with 55 in SB with a LP raiser and caller and BB woke up with AK and pushed himself. Ace on flop and I finished in 2nd tier of money, $17,500.

The amount of money is irrelevant.

It is in fact a huge $ev mistake to fold here.

If you are a satellite luckbox and a mincash will greatly affect your life, and you would much rather lose that $EV and eliminate variance by folding your way into the money, then you make the decision OP did. It is not correct from a $EV perspective, but it seems like it was correct for him in his life situation.

Two furhter considerations:

1. If I understand you right, you had a M of about 5 and the blinds approaching, so even if you double up it will still be hard to get much more than 15T out of the Tournament - meaning you dont double your tournament equity by far - you prolly win about 10% Equity? Is there anyone who can calculate st similar?

2. I saw on TV that the bubble phase took 30min? Is this a lot or not? I ask because to sort out if it makes sense to not play until the bubble bursts...if it normaly takes a while I shuv, if not I fold.

most of the deep runs I have had are with minimal stacks on the bubble...when antes are in play stacks can grow exponentially so I am not sure we are ever really out of it...

OP has plenty of stack to make a run esp if he doubles this hand...look at what happened...he wins the 55 race and we can ride it deep!

if i qualified for $300 and 15k was a good bit of money to me (and it is) id just go take a walk until the bubble bursts.

FYP

ok...moving it over to the HS forum now...

nice run dude...

mmmmmmm $12 beers. those sound delicious.

anyways, we all know folding here is the sucks. im still doing it tho cause 15k is a buttload of money to me. obviously this is why im not playing 10ks and not actively trying to satty into them. you play out of your comfort zone and you make bad folds, like folding AKs here. either way, im still folding and no amount of math is going to make me change my mind. 15k is a downpayment on house...jesus.

It's a +ev shove that you should make but if min cashing was that important to you it's fine. If you played 10 Ks for a living then yes, folding would be a major mistake.

My point is that the Win in Equity in actuall dollars must be in a reasonable relation to the possible "loss" of 15k. If I have EV of 16.000 and double up in chips and afterwards have lets say 20.000 is the win of 4k in Equity is in absolutely no comparison to the loss. But honestly, i have never read of this in books - the general point is, is there a point near the bubble where the "marginal" win EV by doubling up makes it the actual right play to "shut down"...any links to such a discussion?

this

just fold everything wait for some moron with 200k to bust

i'd fold if i really wanted the money, pretty quicky. AKs if u shove here you don't want to be called by any hand. AA or KK would have been more interesting

this. also the payout schedule is reaaaaally flat for this year's PCA, you are a big fav to make the $ within another orbit. That being said, if the money is irrelevant to your life situation, pretty easy push since you have unusually huge fold equity.

qft

... defending with a marginal hand against one of the best tournament players in the world.

I play 10Ks for a living, I'd probably fold.

if this was my last $300 i still shove vs particular villain

simplest shove in the universe...

Shove, at what point will you not worry about the utility and start shoving in these spots? In many tourneys these situations define the huge winners from the BE players. I'm playing to retire early, not to pay off my car.

considering you're in for $300 and the mincash is $15k, practical ICM laws are kinda out the window and, irrationally or otherwise, are probably significantly more stringent.

I fold pretty easily in your spot and wouldn't worry too much about it. Dunno about QQ or JJ but definitely shoving KK+ in your spot.

if I am shoving in your spot, I'm yelling "WOO HOO" before jamming. Then I dance around my chair. increase that fold equity yo!