Well, I used to be a regular poster of advice in this forum. Apparently my "classic" post is still linked here, though probably dated at this point.

In any case, I started back playing again this past summer after a 3 year layoff and somehow managed to make it into the PCA. Here's a hand of note:

Blinds 5000/2500 ante 500

There are 226 players left, 224 make the money which starts at $15k. I'm a qualifying donk who paid like $300 getting in this thing, so 15k is pretty major to me.

UTG, a seasoned tourney pro, makes a standard raise of 12k (iirc). He's been fairly active, but not maniacal. He has around 150-180k at this time.

I'm UTG+2 and look down and see AK. I have about 60k at this time and it's shove or muck. I don't waste too much time mucking it. I think this is a probably a pretty pedestrian fold in this situation, but I consider my poker skills still a little rusty.

So what do you guys think? What hands would you play in this situation? What hands do you raise with when folded to you and what do you shove vs raise here?

well i havent even played close to that buy in but my guess is if he is fairly active he is abusing the bubble and if we shove we are ahead of his range or can get him to muck some weak pair cause lol its the bubble , you have <15bbs w/ a monster ezship if i were u

He's UTG and he wasn't so frisky that he would raise with jack-squat from this position. He was certainly abusing when folded to in later positions though.

well what range would u assign him? 66+(or even tighter, 77/88+?) AQ+? do you think hes raisings 5s, A10s, AJo?

snap shove, wtf? put him on a range, decide if we have enough equity given his range and make your move. Even if he's being super tight here (which isn't the case give our reads) we could put him atleast as wide as 88+,AJ+. We have 54.8% equity vs that range when we only really need around 46% or so (given the dead money from blinds) ... SNAP SHOVE

If the money is super important, you're guaranteed to cash for $15k, and that money is major to you, I think folding is totally fine.

I think it's a pretty standard shove, though. All the better if UTG is a pro who is likely to have sized you up and have a sense of how important the money is to you and how tight your shoving range is going to be here. Given that you're folding AKs, that assessment would be correct.

If you shove, I think villain folds TT for sure, and sometimes JJ. He'll need around 36% equity to call your jam, and JJ vs JJ+, AK has right around 36%. So I think he folds a ton, and we have a good sweat vs. any reasonable calling range (i.e. 42% equity vs. QQ+, AK) and a chance to build a huge stack and maybe even win this thing.

Welcome back to the forums, congrats on the great work at the PCA.

You're right, and that's about the range I put him on. On the bubble of some $20 online tourney it would have been a snap shove, no question. Or even if this was a LP move by him and I was in a blind. But I guess I wasn't willing to risk 15k on a coin flip when I knew I could fold to the money. I tried to consider that I was a fav vs his range and have some balls and put my chips in, but I wussed out. I also had to consider everyone behind me.

But you have to realize villain is folding a ton of that range (idk, like at least 35%-40%?) to your shove... jamming does not create a flip, it's pretty significantly +EV. I also think villain can be WAY lighter on the bubble from UTG. Given that opponents are folding AKs, he'd be absolutely crazy not to open wide.

agreed he is folding a large part of assigned range. btw I dont hate on you folding at all, if i was in your shoes i might do the same, depending on villain , MSMTT grinder 15k would do me wonders, i would prob panic tbh lol

good post

i prolly fold here since 15k would be some very sweet money.
its a hudge bubble for a qualifier who payed like 300$ or 45$ for the ticket.

So what do we shove? QQ+? KK+?

+1

why even bother satting in if youre going to play so scared as to fold AKs in such a hugely +EV spot

Lol this is silly. I'm sure he'd shove AKs in the first hand of the tournament. He's not playing scared, he's playing to cash, and imo 15k is not some ****ing 2buyin piss prize, so I'd probably fold the AKs too, and wait till I'm in the cash to get hyphy.

yes but 15k as a % of the overall prizepool is tiny, youre burning money by folding here...

even though a shove has to be +cev surely there are ICM considerations here?

15K or 1 million... hmmm....

you know better than this

spot on...who is that masked poster

all points including villan's perceptions and calling range are hugely applicable

also agree that though I am pretty sure I shove pretty happily here (and 15K is a nice chunk) but I would not say a fold is bad at all. I am just conditioned to make certain plays in certain situations and I think I would experience convulsions if I folded here

watching the guys on the bubble of the WSOP ME fold KK makes me feel the same way

Ask how many players are left, look really nervous, and ship it in.

Of course there are.

Not sure how flat the payout structure is, but if we assume that doubling up increases Hero's prize pool equity by 50%, and losing reduces the equity by 100%, then that's a bubble factor of 2. So to be confident in a shove, you would need to be sure that your equity in the hand is 2x the pot odds.. So if the pot odds are 1.2:1 (assuming UTG calls, no overcallers), you need about 2.4:1 equity in the hand (0.706).

It is not that high due to fold equity, but it gives you a sense what you want to be calling AI with on the bubble when you are the shorter stack. However, I think you need a pretty high percentage of folds for this to be effective (>60% back of the envelope).

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.194% 42.15% 15.05% 77946096 27822786.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 42.806% 27.76% 15.05% 51337164 27822786.00 { AKs }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.857% 45.19% 08.67% 148553628 28506696.00 { 88+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 46.143% 37.47% 08.67% 123195348 28506696.00 { AKs }

So what hands can you call with (again, not factoring in fold equity)?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.209% 28.99% 01.22% 145941060 6133812.00 { 88+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 69.791% 68.57% 01.22% 345208692 6133812.00 { KK }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.399% 35.35% 02.05% 98063112 5680134.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 62.601% 60.55% 02.05% 167969868 5680134.00 { KK }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 16.570% 14.46% 02.11% 40115436 5849934.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 83.430% 81.32% 02.11% 225577944 5849934.00 { AA }

Of course all of this is predicated to how important the $15k is. Less important = more risk tolerant = insta-shove.

I'm shoving so I can bitch about getting coolered on the bubble at PCA for the rest of my life.

JIT, the easiest way I have found to do what you are trying to do here is to assess a range of opening hands, then a range of calling hands. When you are in stove, and have each of these ranges selected, it will give you a % of hands down at the bottom of the screen. So, after taking both of those ranges (here for sake of argument), you can assess that villain has a 66+, ATo+ UTG raising range since everyone is knitting up the bubble. However, he will only call hero with AQs+, TT+. If the first range is 12% of hands, and the 2nd is 6%, then hero has a .06/.12 % chance of being called and having AKs vs AQs+, TT+ equity, etc.

I think Willy nailed it in that we have more FE than people seem to be realizing