JT,
So, is it A, B, C or D?
That's quite the lengthy dodge you've got going there. Especially since there's nothing new. You've just repeated everything with some new silly examples that are flawed for reasons that really have nothing to do with the matter at hand. Also you seem to be implying that I said or suggested a bunch of stuff that I never said (which is getting close to Fly territory; you never just flat out assert it like he does)
Look man, it's real simple, I despise rapists. I also like logical thought.
1. If you accept that reporting early decreases the likelihood of lying, then by definition not reporting early increases the likelihood of lying. It's basic, elementary logic. It's not even really math.
2. As I said earlier, I fully agree that negative predictive value of early reporting (i.e., not reporting early) is extremely low. Someone who reports later is still extremely likely to be telling the truth. I've never said otherwise. Also, it doesn't change #1 above. It's kind of cute trying to watch you derive commonly understood concepts like predictive value and specificity from first principles with accompanying hilariously bad examples. But like many, you seem to think that if something has a low predictive value, then #1 above is untrue. As I alluded to before, it's a common mistake.
3. Anyone who can simultaneously think all of these things (all of which you said), is just plain illogical.
Quote:
- early reporters have a significantly lower ability to credibly lie [than later reporters].
- I did not say that early reporters have more credibility, I said that it reduces the likelihood that they are lying.
- But at the same time, later reporters do not have a significantly higher likelihood of lying. [than earlier reporters].
Yeah, I get you've got to double down because you are fighting for the side of righteousness. And I truly believe you are. I know you don't think I'm on your team, but I am. Being illogical doesn't help the cause. There is no need. You're on the right side of this. Someone pointing out that you're being illogical is not necessarily on the wrong side or your enemy. They might be, but generally they'll say other stuff and you can attack that. And I'm sure you'll do a much better job of it.
PS. I thought the doctor thing was a Downton joke. He did it a lot better. Of course, that's expected. No one can compete with DT.
Last edited by Melkerson; 07-15-2019 at 07:47 PM.