Quote:
Originally Posted by Very Josie
Whoops! We were pretty deep. I was about 1.6K effective and he about 2K. I know it was an easy fold and I know I shouldn't be results focused, BUT!!! Keep in mind, the odds were a little better than that. Why? Because other than villains' holding 4/4 or 8/4 the latter quite unlikely with a $30 pre raise. I also had the nut flush draw and I know I shouldn't count that with a pair on the board but like I said, with an 8-8-4 flop I find it very unlikely that anyone flopped a full house. Ack whatever, I know 'fold' was the only option, it just hurt because I would've sucked out.
You left out your read too?
I'd have been way less certain there's no boat already out there with the tight's actions. You were there though.
The thing is...you are *NOT* going to have to call aggro villain down on the turn--you are getting repotted all in as soon as you call that $350. Just to be clear, if you put yourself in aggro villain's shoes, you would be repotting there, right? I mean, you would read Josie as having a strong hand pre that missed the flop, and is now hoping something good happens later? Maybe aggro means something different these days?
For the $2,300 side-pot (or just with the tight villain) you need an ace, queen, or one of 9 non-aggro-villain-matching spades while fading his 4 redraws. Assuming his hand is face up here, but if you were that confident in your read then fine. Pretty close to 50% equity, actually. With two guys in the pot you can assume A, Q, or 7 spades fading 8 redraws, so below 40%.
I think you have 2 scenarios worth considering;
A) Force out the aggro and put in $350 to be in a $1,050 pot with ~50% equity = $175 profit.
B) Invite aggro and put in $350 to be in a $1,400 pot with both of them and ~40% equity PLUS the side pot putting in $1,150 of $2,300 with 50% equity = $210 profit.
Both of these compare favorably with folding which = $0. All three compare favorably with any version of call-fold = -$350.
For scenario A you'll have to repot and get a fold (aggro would be calling $1,400). For scenario B aggro will either call that same amount (and put in for your last $100) or you can just call the $350 then plan on calling when he immediately reraises.
I reverse myself then; folding was weak. You should have shoved. Sure proper play and you would've strutted out with $3,700, but it's really only 200 Sklansky bucks. Granted that's kind of a lot...