Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnnyFondue
Shoulda snapped it up at -3.5
I will say tho:
I printed out all the game for week 1 on a wednesday because I pick all the games vs some friends. We didn't fill them out until saturday, and I mostly just took the lines that I was getting better than the actual current one and I smashed all 3 guys I picked against.
Are your friends charging you vig? Either way, betting with vig against a book versus hustling your friends with old lines (and possibly no vig) are 2 very different things.
I thought you were doing the former.
Also, FWIW I still enjoy sportsbetting, but I am done trying to "beat the books." I think the time of being able to do that has come and gone, especially for guys like me and you that aren't programmers and don't have the time to just sit in front of our computers 10 hours a day looking for +EV spots.
I just wait till the vig is -105 and find bets I like and bet them (although I will wait if I think a line might move in my favor). i actually don't see anything I really like in Dallas game, although if I had to bet I would probably take O47. I think both defenses are exploitable to big pass plays, and either team falling behind has the ability to air it out and try to come back.