I think optimal strategy is to keep QB in until the very end and do the opposite of whatever he says.

For what it's worth this is pretty much exactly how we lost the last game.

Votes from post 1 to post 27
Night in 16:00:58
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Votes	Lynch	Voters
3	Montecore	Meano101 (1), Absolam (1), KPowers (2)
2	crashjr	Quick_Ben (1), allinontheturn (5)
1	Quick_Ben	crashjr (2)
1	allinontheturn	SenseiSingh (1)
5	not voting	BookToMarket (0), BustoRhymes (0), bixby snyder (2), StuckinARutt (0), skeletor121 (0)
1	Error	Montecore (7)

Players from the previous game will remember that I correctly identified Monte as a wolf on n1. The wolves came for me that same night, which confirmed my read. But then everyone forgot about my expert analysis and let Monte live until close to the end of the game. DO NOT MAKE THE SAME MISTAKE. Take that mufugger out!!!

Montecore

AIOTT
Crash
BTM

are all wolfs according to my gut

Morning gents

Votes from post 1 to post 31
Night in 14:00:59
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Votes	Lynch	Voters
4	Montecore	BustoRhymes (1), Meano101 (1), Absolam (1), KPowers (2)
2	crashjr	Quick_Ben (1), allinontheturn (5)
1	Quick_Ben	crashjr (2)
1	allinontheturn	SenseiSingh (2)
4	not voting	BookToMarket (1), skeletor121 (0), StuckinARutt (0), bixby snyder (2)
1	Error	Montecore (7)

Eventually a Monte lynch is fine - Monte wagon d1 is bad.

He's not going to wolf spew relative to a newbie - but he's also going to go a lot farther than a newbie in helping the villagers solve the game.

Given that he's 10:3 to be a villager it would be a terrible d1 lynch.

d3? Different story.

That error on Monte's vote is tilting the hell out of me.

I'm fine with crash as an alternate wagon, certainly not off to a strong start.

Because of ^^

^^^ these guys get wolfy leans.

I can see them opening up the wolf skype chat & seeing someone say, "hey lets try to lynch the most experienced player" - then they both come into the thread with Monte votes.

Crash
Meano101
Absolam

AIOTT - why exclude KP and Busto from that list?

Busto because he came onto the wagon so much later.
KP was an over-site - I didn't see he was on Monte a couple hours earlier. He is also a wolf lean & could be the person who originally suggested the Monte wagon in wolf chat.

Would be pretty sloppy for all 3 wolves to try to wagon the most experienced player in the game on d1 - but I guess it's possible from an inexperienced wolf pack.

True, but for some reason his speech here seems wolfier than the others. I'd expect people to just throw around names early in the game because that's how things get started, but the "I called it he was a wolf last time and I'm calling it he's a wolf again" line seems kinda spewy, no?

Spewey or residual rustle from last game - my intuition is residual rustle because I had some myself when I snap voted for QB.

Votes from post 1 to post 41
Night in 12:00:59
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Votes	Lynch	Voters
4	Montecore	BustoRhymes (1), Meano101 (1), Absolam (1), KPowers (2)
3	crashjr	allinontheturn (11), bixby snyder (5), Quick_Ben (1)
1	allinontheturn	SenseiSingh (2)
1	Quick_Ben	crashjr (2)
3	not voting	skeletor121 (0), StuckinARutt (0), BookToMarket (1)
1	Error	Montecore (7)

sup bros

Lol at me being lead wagon

BATM

Sup, at work so can't post much.

First thoughts: Allin/Monte seem to be enjoying themselves ITT - certainly likely v/v. I know monte is a ww vet and I'm not sure about Allin but I gotta assume they're just villagers havin fun here.

Lots of early votes being thrown around for pretty meh reasons:

They all seem wolfy but time will tell if they're just first-time villager posts

Frozen entrance here

Otherwise I need more interactions before I can make more reads. I'll be back for eod

Absolam/meano good votes right now

I agree with AIOTT that crash pre-balancing his range is kind of lame, but it's not necessarily wolfy; if one part of your game sucks, the correct play is to try and improve that part, instead of making the other part worse to compensate. When you're a terrible wolf, it's especially egregious because you're making yourself ****tier 75% of the time to benefit the 25% of the time you rand wolf.

There's nothing really to glean from most of the other votes on me, I don't think, but it's early. I have to say, fakebusto coming in and repping a wolf peek of me for the second consecutive game is kind of cute with the amount of WANTING it displays. 25% of the time it works every time?

People need to get in here and post; I'm bored and don't want to have to work.

Yeah,

I agree that killing Monte Day 3 is pretty game optimal regardless of whether he is wolf or villager.

We need a new wagon to go along with Wolf Jr. When is end of day?

QB,

EOD's at 9.

I'd be pretty stoked to live until d3, but I suspect the wolves may sort me out earlier than that if they don't have a good idea of who the seer is and/or my reads suck. Regardless, having a hard and fast rule about how long to leave me alive is bad for reasons that should be obvious.

I don't really have any other great wolf candidates yet, which isn't surprising because nothing of substance has been posted yet.

Also,

N0 peak is Bustorhymes villager. I really wanted him to be wolf so we could kill him day 1 again, but it is what it is.

Also, FWIW unlike the last seer I am going to make my peaks straightforward. I probably wont survive very long this way, but at least when you go back I wont give you any false negatives.

I will say that stuck popping in and immediately defending me is nice and makes me feel nice, but it's also a facile thing for a wolf to do, especially if the default plan is to kill me earlier rather than later absent a smoking gun from the seer.