Really depends on how his cut down to 170 goes. If its real well and hes in good condition I think its a great bet but if he had a rough cut its probably quite bad.

I'd like Akiyama to win. But if I had to bet, it'd definitely be on Shields.
Akiyama has looked terrible in all his fights. No killer instinct, too passive, slow and poor cardio. Shields was fighting for the title not too long ago, beat Hendo trains with hardcore cardio guys. Can't see Akiyama winning at all.

I hope the Japanese fighters do well on this card (I'm living in Japan currently) if they do half as well as the Brazilians did in Brazil that'd great.

Only big bet placed is on Okami.

God we talk about the stupidest stuff.

That said Floyd would T(KO) Dana imo. Mostly because while strong as heck, Dana strikes me as pretty slow and nonexplosive. So slow lumbering takedowns = getting combo'd hard trying to close the distance for the takedown. If Dana has a darn good beard though then I'd have him as the favorite.

Dana would probably beat most of us up. He's pretty big, I'd guess like 240ish. He trained boxing for a very long time and not that long ago many people close to him and Tito favored Dana in their supposed boxing match. As for his ground game we know he's trained it, but we really don't know how much. He's probably super rusty though, as he's definitely to busy to be training it these days.

The key factor in whether a high white belt/blue belt level guy can beat Floyd is his explosiveness and ability to close the distance quickly to get the takedown. You gotta be able to shoot the double from outside floyds range and get them legs before floyd can use footwork to get out of the way.

I'll take an explosive 170 pound blue belt over an nonexplosive 230 pound blue belt with the same exact skill level against floyd all day.

It wouldn't shock me if Akiyama beat Shields, though I have the latter as a significant favorite. Three things in Akiyama's favor: 1) He doesn't have to travel. 2) Jake still seems a little messed up about his dad. 3) He has power.

Let's not forget that even in victory, Jake has been known to take one or two pretty bad shots to the face.

As for Akiyama it's definitely an interesting match/

Akiyama is 1-3 in his UFC run and has looked pretty awful. That said all 4 of his fights were against strikers and he was never out wrestled IIRC. He may very well be able to stuff shields take downs and win the striking. Because although Akiyamas striking is pretty terrible, shields is worse.

Also with Akiyama dropping to 170 you'd expect his cardio to improve. He wasn't fat, so he definitely lost muscle mass, most likely from focusing way more on cardio. Both should be much better for his overall conditioning.

1)So Shields may very well be able to get take downs on akiyama, wear him out and sub him in the 2 or 3rd.

2)Akiyama may be able to stuff shields, but eventually gas and get taken down and subbed.

3)Or Akiyama may stuff shields and have vastly improved cardio and win a UD.

Listed in order of likeliness imo.

There is also the issue of shields coming off a T(KO) loss, which can really change a lot of fighters. He probably tries to strike less than anyone in MMA, so it shouldn't be too big a deal.

As for betting on it, to me there are just way too many unknown variables which can make it either a bad bet or a good bet.

any risk for weirdo judges? are they brought in like with Brazil or are they going with Japanese judges?

also need to hear dannyoceans thoughts about Dana White vs. Floyd. obviously. maybe do a roundtable podcast with DO, phresh, stimabuser, c_c, Mikey, cereuslypissed and that rootbagger guy.

Yes, but will end an hour later due to a 7 fight card.

re sexyama v. shields:

I think the line should really be shields -180ish. Shields has not looked remotely good in almost 2 years (since the hendo fight). He still has the best bjj in the division, but his ground game as a whole seems to have diminished rapidly since his elitexc days when he was subbing people left and right. He looked god awful vs. a very middle of the road welterweight in kampmann in a fight which he was losing before sneaking in a back mount but was unable to finish, and somehow managed to get a title shot after that. GSP beat him blind in one eye where shields didn't get him close to the ground, and he got stuffed pretty easily by ellenberger too. Factor in the flight/time difference, his father situation and I honestly can't see a good reason why shields will look better than he has looked in his past 3 fights, which I think he needs to do to beat Akiyama in Japan with some consistency.

Akiyama on the other hand beat up leben for 2+ rounds before gassing and getting caught. He got beaten by bisping/belfort who are easily among the top strikers at 185, I don't know how telling that is. Sure, hes getting older, he has cardio issues but hes fighting in Japan so he should have way more motivation to work harder and actually train for this fight. His stand up is still much better than shields, he has more power as well. He also has not really been taken down in the UFC at all (although no one besides bisping has even shot), so shields even getting him to the ground is a huge if, especially considering akiyama knows shields' gameplan and is probably working on tdd like crazy

Kongo, Bart P, Akiyama, Henderson are solid bets

1. He hasn't declined, he's just facing tougher fighters. EliteXC fighters =/= the top 10 killers row he's faced in the UFC.

2. Kampmann is not middle of the road. He beat Thales Leites in the middle of Thales streak to a title shot, He beat condit, crushed volkman, crushed Paulo Thiago, he beat Diego but was robbed, and he just beat Rick Story. His only legit losses at WW are Daley & Shields. Kampmann is very, very good. Especially his grappling. He out grappled Thales leites,Paulo Thiago, Rick Story, Diego Sanchez... the only man to ever out grapple Kampmann was Shields.


But on the other hand.... Akiyama beat a sloppy brawler for two rounds before getting subbed? How is that a good thing when facing Jake Shields? LOL.




Someones drinking that sexyama coolaide.

so pumpeddd for the main event

two of my top 5 favourite fighters

Hes in his mid 30s now, his take downs have been far less explosive in the past couple of years up to a point where hes not really getting fights to the ground on a consistent basis as opposed to controlling fights and getting submissions at will. He wasn't close to getting gsp to the ground in 5 rounds, Kampmann stuffed something like 80% of his take down attempts, and he wasn't close to getting Ellenberger down either.

Im not saying kampmann is not good, but at best hes is merely a gatekeeper in the divison making it into the top 10 on most peoples list but never really in the top 5 or in title contention. The condit fight was really close too. I don't think what should be taken from that fight is that jake looked bad because kampmann is a very good fighter, but Jake looked bad, period.

Haha don't think im drinking sexyama coolaide, in fact the one reason i'm hesitant is sexyama is pretty bad. To me it feels like a perfect mix of things that can potentially come together for him: weight cut to 170 is much better for his frame (i think hes actually smaller than shields) and reduces the chance he gets muscled around by guys like bisping. Hes fighting in Japan, has extra incentive to train, knows exactly what to expect from shields, and does not have to deal with a 20 hour flight, jetlag and a 12 hour time difference... all at +280

cool interview

so was the whole rampage-helwani thing fake?

It was real but they squashed it.

they def both had some rly passive aggressive comments so idk if they like each other much but beef seems squashed.

lol at Kampmann being a middle of the road fighter. That guy is a bad-ass who has been anally violated by lolmmajudges. He deserves a shot at GSP just as much as anyone else in the division.

Nvm

We all know Akiyama is going to gas in the 3rd get passed and choked out. I don't think Akiyama has faced a superb wrestler either. I don't think there's any way he can stuff the takedown for an entire round.

I'm surprised shields isn't a bigger fav tbh. Akiyama is almost 37yo and looked like **** in his last couple fights. The only thing he has going for him is the reverse jet lag factor. He won't have to battle jet lag and his opponent will although fighting in Japan doesn't seem like a big deal to Jake who has fought and won there before.

Taking Akiyama is crazy, he's gonna lose via cut and cardio

I'd assume any reasonably high level fighter that isn't ******ed would show up like two weeks prior to the fight date to avoid any jet lag effects on the fight.

I mean it might hurt 1 or so days of his training, but that close to the fight your training isn't that intense anyways.

Yeah it would be beyond ******ed for any fighter to let the jet lag affect them in the least bit on fight night. This also goes for european/asian guys fighting in USA. Only "reasonable" explanation is that it's a money issue, and even that is ridiciluous.

Is it douche/wrong to go from no force to full force w/ chokes in BJJ, or specifically rear-naked choke while sparring? I thought it's standard with chokes and only dangerous/wrong thing to do with locks, but last course someone told me i'm doing it wrong
Obviously i'm not trying to choke someone out, just get the tap.

You definitely shouldn't be going from no force to full force. That's how you injure and hurt people.

If you have the RNC you should be applying about the amount of force it takes to choke them out. You don't need a lot of force to choke someone out with a RNC. It's something like 30 lbs of pressure... which is really not much.

It definitely varies for every person... but something like 40% force should be plenty enough to choke someone unconscious. There is really zero purpose to apply full force other than to hurt/injure your partner. Not only is 40% much safer and better etiquette, but it allows time for more hand fighting which is just going to improve both of you.

Also if you're in the type of position where are supposed to arch your back to finish the RNC properly, then going full force can really hurt someones back.