This COTW was born from a discussion from an newbie poster on his plan of attack after flopping second pair holding the monster 36o from the big blind. That discussion is here if you want to read the background. Poster stranglylucid and I discussed whether to check/fold or stab in spots like this, and parameters when one might be better than the other. I was on the argument of "yes, stab". Shortly after this thread, I was reading Ryan Fee's 6max strategy guide (not sure why, since I'm a full ring player), but he also contained a section on stabbing at unraised pots - when to do it, why to do it, etc. Ryan was in the "stab" camp, also. Between the thread, and Ryan's suggestion, I did some digging on my own, and decided it was a topic worthy of a COTW.

"Why" to stab at unraised pots can be best summarized using the immortal words of KurtSF - the theme of his "isolating limpers" COTW.

Let's dig into that - why do they suck? Limpers are the most obvious manifestation of fit-or-fold poker - they see two shiny cards in their hand, they imagine making powerful straights, flushes, or, erm, two pairs with them, and they toss in the cost of the big blind to see if, this one time, they will hit their monster hand.

We 2+2'ers know better - nobody ever hits a flop in Texas Holdem. Hitting a flop is just a backup plan to blind stealing, 3betting light, 4betting light, isolating limpers, re-isolating isolaters, and squeezing. "Hey, look - I hit trips after squeezing with K7s! Sweet!" We know that people hit flops roughly 1/3 of the time, and many of those flops are technically "hit" but too weak to continue (like bottom pair). Lets go to a hand.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em $0.05/$0.10 - 9 players

Button: $13.56
SB: $3.10
BB: $10.00 (Hero)
UTG: $3.50
UTG+1: $5.00
MP: $10.44
MP2: $10.01
HJ: $4.95
CO: $14.38

Preflop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with (9 players)
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.10, HJ calls $0.10, CO folds, Button calls $0.10, SB folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.45) (4 players)
Hero bets $0.30, 3 folds

Hero won $0.42
(Rake: $0.03)

I flopped second pair and a flush draw - a pretty nice hand. Of course I'm going to bet that. Something interesting happens on the way to my flush, though - 3 players fold and I take down the pot. Nobody had a king, someone might have had a jack but they were afraid of the king, and nobody had two hearts. This board didn't line up with their crappy limped hands, so they folded. 4 and a half big blinds for me. Here's another.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em $0.05/$0.10 - 9 players

SB: $13.22
BB: $12.06 (Hero)
UTG: $10.87
UTG+1: $7.00
MP: $8.91
MP2: $31.61
HJ: $8.86
CO: $12.54
Button: $12.76

Preflop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with (9 players)
3 folds, HJ calls $0.10, 3 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.25) (3 players)
Hero bets $0.18, HJ calls $0.18

Turn: ($0.61) (3 players)
Hero bets $0.35, HJ folds

Hero won $0.57
(Rake: $0.04)


One limper this time, I flop an open ender with my all-powerful deuce-four. This time, I get a call. The turn pairs the top card on the board, which should change nothing as far as who was ahead or behind on the flop (my strong suspicion is that I wasn't ahead with 4 high). But limper folds the turn - he decides I'm serious with my second bet and folds (even though we all know that second king drastically reduced the chance that I'm holding one). Or maybe he had two diamonds or two broadways in his hand and wanted to see if the turn gave him a flush or straight draw (don't laugh, a guy in my home game does this routinely).

In the above two hands, I was just betting my equity and got folds. This is always a good plan, but do we really need that backup equity every time? Remember what KurtSF said - limpers suck at poker because they're trying to hit hands, and hitting hands is hard. Let's try one more.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em $0.10/$0.25 - 8 players

CO: $25.62
Button: $21.57
SB: $25.00
BB: $25.00 (Hero)
UTG: $15.12
UTG+1: $26.00
MP: $16.21
HJ: $49.37

Preflop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with (8 players)
3 folds, HJ calls $0.25, 2 folds, SB calls $0.15, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.75) (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.45, 2 folds

Hero won $0.72
(Rake: $0.03)


First limper was a glorious 75/13, second limper was a 23/9 (50-odd hands on each). Board is king-high, rainbow, and uncoordinated. Not much in the way of draws for either player to chase. I stab with ace high and get two folds. Let's look at how this flop looks to the 75/13 guy using FlopZilla.



I've highlighted the moral of the story down at the bottom of the pic. "Range has hit 24.0% of the time". Which is another way of saying, of course, "Range has missed 76% of the time".

Extra Credit question: Was my stab out with ace high a bluff, or a value bet?


So let's run an HEM filter and see if stabbing in limped pots from the blinds is profitable. I filtered on "Big Blind" for my position (you can do small blind, also, but the filters end up being harder, plus I usually only complete from the small blind when I have some kind of hand, and I wanted to drive home the point that your hand doesn't matter when stabbing). I also filtered on "1 limper and 2+ limpers". (stabbing works better with 1 limper, but my results don't suck with 2+, either, so I'm keeping them together here). On the "Filter by Actions" tab, select "Check" under "Preflop Actions", and select "Bet" under "Flop Actions". Here's the punch line, my results:



Disclaimer: I'm not a high-volume multitable guy - I'm a middle age shlub with a job who plays 10,000 hands a month if I'm lucky (and I need some of it to be Rush poker to get there). So my sample sizes are small. These results are taken from a total sample of about 64,000 full ring hands.

Now, I don't think we're all going to get rich stabbing at every limped pot out there. Clearly there are better times to do it than others. Number of opponents is important (fewer is preferable to more). Board texture is important (limpers chase draws, so dry boards are better than wet ones, unless you're the one with a draw and backup equity). Ace-high boards are bad (everyone limps crappy aces), but king-high and queen-high boards are excellent. All low, crap boards are good, also (we're playing the "that board hit my any-two-cards from the big blind range" game, whether it actually hit us or not).

One more hand to drive the point home.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em $0.10/$0.25 - 8 players

CO: $10.00
Button: $10.25
SB: $25.00
BB: $26.49
UTG: $29.87
UTG+1: $25.76
MP: $53.29
HJ: $25.92

Preflop: ($0.35) (8 players)
3 folds, CO checks (posted BB), Button folds, SB calls $0.15, BB (Hero) checks

Flop: ($0.50) (4 players)
BB bets $0.50, 2 folds

UTG won $0.72
(Rake: $0.03)

What did I have? Does it matter? Ok, I'll show you.

Dealt to HERO

thanks for mpethy and those in charge for letting me contribute.

frist, nice post!

2rd. I'm going to read it now!

good thread. i was thinking of doing something similar. when facing up to 2 or 3 limpers (usually if it goes SB limps, 2 MP players limp, i will be stabbing, if 3 MP limpers and SB folds I'm not stabbing blindly), you just can just pot all non connected suited boards and get folds. otherwise, you like to have equity.

it sure it a hell of a lot better than just check folding your K4o every time because "you have aces on another table, so who cares about your big blind, everyone loses from the blinds anyways"

I like it

it's not a value bet, and it's not a bluff either. (you'll get called by worse sometimes and he might even fold better occasionaly... but you're really just betting to make him fold his nothing - which he'll have plenty of.

i'd raise pf though

Agreed - we're betting to make villain release his equity share, which is typically around 25% on dry boards, assuming we have nothing and so does villain.

Solid post. I definitely need to be more aggressive on limped pots.

Great COTW! Thank you

This. If there is one limper, unless he's an 80-10 drooler, why not raise PF? Once you get two or three I can see the value in checking and trying to have some equity on the flop, and youre keeping the pot size down so if your stab gets raised or called it's relatively cheap.

Very nice post, Thank You

Your title reminds me of this from Boondock Saints:

The Family Prayer

"And Shepherds we shall be

For thee, my Lord, for thee.

Power hath descended forth from Thy hand

Our feet may swiftly carry out Thy commands.

So we shall flow a river forth to Thee

And teeming with souls shall it ever be.

In Nomeni Patri Et Fili Spiritus Sancti."



Il Duce's Prayers

"And when I vest my flashing sword And my hand takes hold in judgement I will take vengeance upon mine enemies And I will repay those who hase me O Lord, raise me to Thy right hand And count me amoung Thy saints ."

"Whosoever shed last blood. By man shall his blood be shed. For immunity of god make he the man. Destroy all that which is evil. So that which is good may flourish. And I shall count thee amoung my favoured sheep. And you shall have the protection of all the angels in heaven."

"Never shall innocent blood be shed. Yet the blood of the wicked shall flow like a river. The three shall spread their blackened wings and be the vengeaful striking hammer of god. "

the title quote is from Moby Dick, but I suspect many readers here know it from somewhere else.

I Lol'd.

Thanks for the knowledge share.

Doing a repost from the previous discussion as I think it has a direct contribution to this post:

This is from my data base in limped pots in spots where I donked out:

25NL regular tables - 221 hands - 82 folds
HU - 111 hands - 56 folds - 50% success rate
MW - 110 hands - 26 folds - 23% sucess rate
25NL rush - 134 hands - 61 folds
HU - 84 hands - 39 folds - 46% success rate
MW - 50 hands - 22 folds - 44% success rate
10NL rush - 153 hands - 61 folds
HU - 89 hands - 43 folds - 48% success rate
MW - 64 hands - 18 folds - 28% success rate

Obviously my sample sizes are small, but you can see the overall trend that HU works about 50% of the time, while MW works around 30% of the time. I think there are lots of good spots to be donking in these situations, but I also don't think you should be auto donking A high in a 3 way pot on a dry Kxx flop. Now, this might be a good idea, but one thing I really don't like about this discussion is that we are treating all limpers the same. Are we talking about stations who will call 3 streets with A high, or people who are going to call 1 bet with third pair and then fold to any more action, or are the fit fold types who are folding less than top pair/draw (and what type of draws are they calling with?) type fish? These are very important questions you should answer before you donk out.

I will say that I have been having a lot of success in leading the flop and turn, so if I do donk, it is pretty much always with the intention of double barreling.

now when facing regs, we need to start limping from late possition and raising thier donks from the bb.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EnJibOiKDAU

check around 6:30-7:00

I swear to God I didn't see this before naming my COTW. I didn't even know episode 2 was out yet!

LOL

Nice post!

Raising vs Completing from the Blinds Preflop in Limped Pots - if we can be reasonably confident of getting it HU and then stealing the pot then yes, but technically, we could do this with ATC

The bolded part is true - need to think how the board hits people's limping ranges but conceptually speaking people miss alot more than they hit and so leading dry boards (where people hit less by around 5-6% - probably more vs weaker ranges) is going to be pretty profitable, provided that we can get people to fold unpaired hands most of the time.

nice post, but I will digress slightly.

I like stabbing when we have equity (even if its a gutter with a back door straight draw, or as I like to call it...THE NUTS!"

Position is important. If we are last to act (or next to last to act in a big MW pot), then stabbing on the flop with no to little equity is good, but betting a dry board OOP is tough because we are really repping very little, plus people call the flop too much when it is small just to see the turn card. Being OOP, I like to check the flop and then stabbing on the turn (this is MW, not HU), as people probably have shown they have zero interest in it. Plus this is the way you would play 72 on a 223 board anyways.

Very good cotw!

+1 to the bolded

Agreed.

does that mean -1 to the unbolded part?

no. i just think it's a pinch too blanket statement and didn't want to derail getting super nit-picky over something that I think we both agree on in general...