Are you calling this 90bb shove with bottom set? - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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Are you calling this 90bb shove with bottom set?

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10-22-2017 , 03:23 PM

Woody_QPR

newbie

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 41

Horrible spot with bottom set on wet board. I called, but would like to know what you would do and what your thought process would be.

Villain Stats are VPIP 19, PFR 15 and CBet 76 after 194 hands.

Cheers.

Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37854748

Hero (MP2): $6.31 (126.2 bb)
MP3: $6.79 (135.8 bb)
CO: $3 (60 bb)
BTN: $6.92 (138.4 bb)
SB: $5.37 (107.4 bb)
BB: $2.55 (51 bb)
UTG+1: $5 (100 bb)
UTG+2: $10.07 (201.4 bb)
MP1: $5.64 (112.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8

2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.15, Hero calls $0.15, 5 folds

Flop: ($0.37) Q

(2 players)
MP1 bets $0.23, Hero raises to $0.85, MP1 calls $0.62

Turn: ($2.07) A

(2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $0.95, MP1 raises to $4.64 and is all-in, Hero calls $3.69

River: ($11.35) 3

(2 players, 1 is all-in)

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

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10-22-2017 , 04:44 PM

Bagpuss

adept

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 1,153

yeah fold, you're not really ahead of anything. Xbk river too if called ott.

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10-23-2017 , 10:26 PM

roadvr7

enthusiast

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 62

River fold imo

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10-24-2017 , 09:36 PM

coldeu

adept

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 776

folding

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10-24-2017 , 10:03 PM

tarheels2222

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 10,832

Definitely folding river.

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10-25-2017 , 07:34 AM

hanni610

stranger

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 7

After you bet the turn, you need ~25% based on pot podds to call the shove.

Lets give villain much, much credit with a range something like that:
AA,QQ,TT,AQs+,KJs,AsTs,AQo,KJo,AsTd,AsTh,AsTc

You still have ~39% equity against that range.
39% > 25%

Thus its easy call.

Of course you still beat some hands, please i want to see arguments which make range of villain tighter than the one above.
That would be crazy!!!

And yey, please lets all fold THE RIVER.

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10-25-2017 , 08:12 AM

hanni610

stranger

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 7

Sry, the replayer seems to have a problem regarding pot odds or i made sime miscalculation.
Seems you need ~32% equity based on pot odds.
Hopefully i got it right this time, lol.

Again. Call.
Equity you have based on range still 39% (have best hand sometimes, improve on river) still good: 39% > 32%.

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10-25-2017 , 01:07 PM

Woody_QPR

newbie

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 41

Quote:

Originally Posted by hanni610

Thanks for the detail. I did run this through PokerStove after and wasn't too disappointed. At 5NL I don't think villains are shoving often enough with a pair/spade draw though. So, whilst the range you have chosen is probably a profitable range to jam this turn,at lower levels the range is probably much narrower, and villain is usually calling with flush potential...

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10-25-2017 , 02:03 PM

hanni610

stranger

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 7

Quote:

Originally Posted by Woody_QPR

So, whilst the range you have chosen is probably a profitable range to jam this turn,at lower levels the range is probably much narrower, and villain is usually calling with flush potential...

No, i only included hands with added flush potential.
I included mostly hands which are also two pairs - so shoving for protection, or plus added bonus of flsuh potential. Only AK you might call here in question i think. I also missed some already made flushes which cost you some additioanl perecent points. You cannot add all 2 suited spades cards because fillain does not play so musch hands based on his stat.

I think in result call still fine. At worst break even.
I will certainly not fold in game against villain who is not nit or i have some realy reliable read.

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