The math seems so close...


PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 82 BB (VPIP: 11.63, PFR: 3.26, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 218)
MP+1: 38.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
CO: 87 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
BTN: 56.5 BB (VPIP: 60.00, PFR: 40.00, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 5)
SB: 27 BB (VPIP: 45.59, PFR: 2.94, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 70)
Hero (BB): 100 BB
UTG: 88.5 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
UTG+1: 124.5 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T A

fold, UTG+1 raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 3 BB, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (12 BB, 4 players) 6 K A
SB bets 2 BB, Hero raises to 10 BB, UTG+1 raises to 121.5 BB and is all-in, fold, SB calls 22 BB and is all-in, Hero...

I don't think it's close.

Definitely a call.

Why?

Equity is 34% and odds of hitting flush is 36%...

I fold. UTG+1 is ready to play for stacks on a wet board against a donk bet and a raise.

I think his range is usually AA KK AK.

He as some cards that make a FH, so your equity isn't as high as you think based only on you making the flush.

In any event, I'd fold pre also. There aren't enough callers to go for a flush draw OOP.

Basically, you're saying that getting 36% odds of hitting flush isn't enough for 34% equity considering possible Full House?

I don't understand why you'd fold preflop. You are in BB so the odds are very good and ATs isn't that bad a hand...

Ooops. I missed there were already 3 others in the had PF. PF call is fine.

OK thanks

And about the call/fold decision, I still don't get it. If we consider the chances V gets FH, shouldn't we also consider two pairs or a set for Hero as well? Still look like a coin flip to me...

Just call the 2bbs lead. UTG has a huge range advantage on that flop and you probably shouldn't have any raise range. As played it's super gross and call/fold should be somewhat close in EV.

If villains range is AA KK AK, then hero's equity is 32% if we completely ignore SB, which we shouldn't.

After the SB shoves, the pot is 143bb and it's 87bb for hero to call, 1.6:1 odds. You need better than 2.1:1 to call.

Sure, villain will have an overplayed hand here occasionally, so maybe you have more equity than just the range above shows. But, I typically fold here.

I fold because I already play a pretty high variance game, and I think at least part of my edge comes from the additional fold equity I get from acting first. I fold because I think I can find better spots to get it all-in.

I think it's a sometimes call depending on some factors (for me at least). If I am up 400-500 big blinds in a session, and I am towards quitting, I might roll the dice.

However, I think the big decision to fold for me is based on the fact that I don't want to get used to CALLING on a board where I am already beat. This relates to not having fold equity, calling vs pushing all-in when your equity is the same.

It comes down to: "I only risked 10bb, do I really want to flip a coin for 90+bb?"

Since I feel like I have a better edge on the field of players, I generally decide I don't need to make these gambles-- although I'm sure personal feelings of tilt and boredom sway me towards making the call sometimes.

But objectively I say fold!

I totally agree on this. Every time EV is only slightly positive and you have to risk a huge amount of bb, I think is definitely wise to fold and move on to the next hand, especially if you aren't committed to the pot

Depends on your relationship with variance, but doesn’t look like a bad play either ways.