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Winning the least with a set Winning the least with a set

01-17-2018 , 10:53 AM
I generally like to have one hand per post, but this was against the same opponent and neither line got the result I wanted.

Hand 1: I flop top set and try to induce
Hand 2: I flop middle set and play more aggressively

Both of these instances, I was left feeling like I should have gotten more value. Looking for ideas on how I might have approached the betting line that could have yielded higher return.

Thanks:

Hand 1:

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG+1: 229.92 BB (VPIP: 19.22, PFR: 14.79, 3Bet Preflop: 5.10, Hands: 518)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 20.21, PFR: 12.90, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 95)
MP+1: 283.96 BB (VPIP: 21.54, PFR: 18.46, 3Bet Preflop: 17.24, Hands: 65)
CO: 67.2 BB (VPIP: 16.49, PFR: 11.44, 3Bet Preflop: 3.55, Hands: 384)
BTN: 74.92 BB (VPIP: 34.33, PFR: 25.37, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 69)
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 5.56, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
BB: 84.16 BB (VPIP: 15.00, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 40)
Hero (UTG): 117.36 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A A

Hero raises to 3.4 BB, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 11 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 7.6 BB

Flop: (23.4 BB, 2 players) 3 A J
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 8 BB, Hero calls 8 BB

Turn: (39.4 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero checks, MP+1 checks

River: (39.4 BB, 2 players) 9
Hero bets 60 BB, fold

Hand 2:

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 228.52 BB (VPIP: 19.04, PFR: 14.64, 3Bet Preflop: 5.03, Hands: 523)
BTN: 174.92 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 7.89, Hands: 100)
SB: 252.36 BB (VPIP: 23.19, PFR: 20.29, 3Bet Preflop: 18.75, Hands: 70)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 16.62, PFR: 11.61, 3Bet Preflop: 4.23, Hands: 387)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 4.35, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)
UTG+1: 82.76 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 45)
Hero (MP): 134.4 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 9 9

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3.4 BB, fold, BTN calls 3.4 BB, SB raises to 14 BB, fold, Hero calls 10.6 BB, fold

Flop: (32.4 BB, 2 players) K 9 6
SB bets 20 BB, Hero raises to 55.4 BB, fold
Winning the least with a set Quote
01-17-2018 , 03:09 PM
4bet AA preflop, you're OOP. If your gonna do the slowplay game, usually do it in position.
Then if he has KK you stack him preflop. He might shove QQ or AK in which case you stack him, but if he calls then theres already more money in the pot, and you can put even more in with your cbet. The preflop raising helps you get into a situation where the stack to pot ratios are small - AA plays best in such situations, especially if you're OOP.

The ideal candidate for an AA slowplay at these stakes is one of those guys who resteals from the blinds way too often. If they're 3 betting you from the button, just repop it and be happy to take it down. If you're "never" getting called, work in a few 4bet bluffs, maybe A2-A5s or something (A-blockers mean they're less likely to have AK or AA).

As played, calling the flop is probably fine - he's unlikely to have an A - more likely to have a J (although he might check these back if he was smart - but most villains at these stakes autocbet after 3betting). Thus he's probably operating a "one-and done" kind of policy. The Q is a good card for you - perhaps he has QQ or KQ or even AQ!

You could consider making a small bet and seeing if he raises you or something, checking's not bad though either - if you donk, you fold out all the bluffs and only get paid by hands that would have bet when checked to anyway.
As it is, I think you should bet the river much smaller and hope to get paid by **** pairs, weak aces etc. The value hands will raise a small river bet, and you might even induce a spaztastic bluff since your river raise looks suspicious.
Problem with the overbet is that most of the hands that pay it off (AQ, QQ, JJ, QJ) definitely dont check back the turn - they look to get paid themselves! So it's pretty much only being called by 99 which is would be a rarity.
Bet small, hope he calls with the crud or even better makes a silly raise!

Main problem though is that you could have made the pot bigger pre-flop!
Do you see how being out of position hurts you here? Once you call the flop, your opponent is pretty much putting you on having at least an ace, so he's probably going to shut down. If you make the Stack to pot ratio smaller by raising pre, you have a better chance of making a big pot - you could check the flop and pretend that you have KK and hope your opponent takes a chance to bet you off it with QQ using position! This is more expensive for him as well, because he'd have to bet more in relation to the size of the pot! Or your could just straight up bet the flop and hope he calls you with QQ, or jams with AK and JJ.
Winning the least with a set Quote
01-17-2018 , 03:12 PM
Hand 1: I'd 4bet this preflop. You're going to need a 4bet range when playing against villain's with these kind of 3bet stats out of position. The composition of this range will be dependent on villain's fold to 4bet stats (or the general player population at this level). Whatever way you construct it AA should be in it.

Hand 2: Would you raise this flop bet with anything other than a set?
Winning the least with a set Quote
01-17-2018 , 03:20 PM
In the second hand I think you did the right thing by raising. AK, KQ, KJ might pay you off.
Could have probably made it a little bigger though - he's getting 3:1 on a call atm - if the stacks are deep he might think you have AK and try to stack you by hitting a flush/straight with the 78. As it is, you have to be very very careful not to justify his call by paying him off when the flush card comes, you bet and he shoves. Raise more. Punish AK hard and punish the draws. They might even shove on you.
Winning the least with a set Quote
01-17-2018 , 03:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brussels Sprout

Hand 2: Would you raise this flop bet with anything other than a set?
Yeah sure! Make this raise with draws here, especially if Villain has the common leak of cbetting way too much in 3bet pots. This flop misses a lot of the combinations in Villains abominably wide 3betting range, he may fold KT/KJ.
Winning the least with a set Quote
01-17-2018 , 03:26 PM
4bet AA preflop, you're OOP. If your gonna do the slowplay game, usually do it in position.
Then if he has KK you stack him preflop. He might shove QQ or AK in which case you stack him, but if he calls then theres already more money in the pot, and you can put even more in with your cbet. The preflop raising helps you get into a situation where the stack to pot ratios are small - AA plays best in such situations, especially if you're OOP.

The ideal candidate for an AA slowplay at these stakes is one of those guys who resteals from the blinds way too often. If they're 3 betting you from the button, just repop it and be happy to take it down. If you're "never" getting called, work in a few 4bet bluffs, maybe A2-A5s or something (A-blockers mean they're less likely to have AK or AA).

As played, calling the flop is probably fine - he's unlikely to have an A - more likely to have a J (although he might check these back if he was smart - but most villains at these stakes autocbet after 3betting). Thus he's probably operating a "one-and done" kind of policy. The Q is a good card for you - perhaps he has QQ or KQ or even AQ!

You could consider making a small bet and seeing if he raises you or something, checking's not bad though either - if you donk, you fold out all the bluffs and only get paid by hands that would have bet when checked to anyway.
As it is, I think you should bet the river much smaller and hope to get paid by **** pairs, weak aces etc. The value hands will raise a small river bet, and you might even induce a spaztastic bluff since your river raise looks suspicious.
Problem with the overbet is that most of the hands that pay it off (AQ, QQ, JJ, QJ) definitely dont check back the turn - they look to get paid themselves! So it's pretty much only being called by 99 which is would be a rarity.
Bet small, hope he calls with the crud or even better makes a silly raise!

Main problem though is that you could have made the pot bigger pre-flop!
Do you see how being out of position hurts you here? Once you call the flop, your opponent is pretty much putting you on having at least an ace, so he's probably going to shut down. If you make the Stack to pot ratio smaller by raising pre, you have a better chance of making a big pot - you could check the flop and pretend that you have KK and hope your opponent takes a chance to bet you off it with QQ using position! This is more expensive for him as well, because he'd have to bet more in relation to the size of the pot! Or your could just straight up bet the flop and hope he calls you with QQ, or jams with AK and JJ.
Winning the least with a set Quote

      
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