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Are we ever making this Bluff in this spot. Are we ever making this Bluff in this spot.

05-14-2019 , 10:59 PM
I've seen the villain make folds so I know he is capable and was wondering if this is a -EV play or something we employ on occasion...

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.50 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 60.18 BB (VPIP: 15.57, PFR: 12.98, 3Bet Preflop: 7.97, Hands: 661)
UTG: 53.92 BB (VPIP: 18.52, PFR: 15.12, 3Bet Preflop: 5.73, Hands: 1,110)
UTG+1: 120.74 BB (VPIP: 26.61, PFR: 18.85, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 456)
MP: 186.04 BB (VPIP: 18.91, PFR: 13.78, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 1,027)
CO: 108.82 BB (VPIP: 19.21, PFR: 14.27, 3Bet Preflop: 6.54, Hands: 1,518)
Hero (BTN): 106.18 BB
SB: 104.8 BB (VPIP: 43.30, PFR: 10.31, 3Bet Preflop: 2.13, Hands: 98)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A Q

fold, UTG+1 raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls 6.5 BB

Flop: (19.5 BB, 2 players) 8 7 T
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 13.9 BB, UTG+1 calls 13.9 BB

Turn: (47.3 BB, 2 players) J
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 22.46 BB, UTG+1 calls 22.46 BB

River: (92.22 BB, 2 players) 3
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 60.82 BB and is all-in, UTG+1 calls 60.82 BB

Spoiler:
UTG+1 shows T A (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 31%, Flop 84%, Turn 75%)
Hero shows A Q (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 69%, Flop 16%, Turn 25%)
UTG+1 wins 207.86 BB

0.48 BB was deducted from the pot for the jackpot.

Are we ever making this Bluff in this spot. Quote
05-15-2019 , 04:50 AM
flop is no bueno
you are checking close to 100%, oop has range advantage
when this guy x/c your big cb, his range is going to look like 99,JJ/QQ, some ATs,JTs,T9s
and AcJc,AcQc,KcQc. some of these will be discounted either because of pre or because your opp will x/r flop. either way, you get the picture.

the turn improves his range so you can't bet it. it's actually a very bad card for you to bet so once again 100% check. you may think you rep the 9 while also betting your open ender but the truth is close to nothing of your opponent's strong range folds to a 1/2p bet and your equity is crap at this point.

after you've further narrowed your opp range down a bit with the turn bet (he still has a few folds ott), what do you think is left of this guy's range to fold river? a set of TT once in a while?

I'm afraid you punted your stack away for no good reason and had you played well you wouldn't have lost much more than 10bb in this hand
Are we ever making this Bluff in this spot. Quote
05-16-2019 , 07:13 PM
Flop is no bueno....

Oh wait all this has already been said.

It would have been better to check and try to get to showdown. You should only be betting big tens, sets, 2 pair and the draws and suited connectors that hit this board.
Are we ever making this Bluff in this spot. Quote
05-16-2019 , 09:51 PM
ya, you missed the flop, and, the board has all kinds of draws that are in the villians range. I don't think a bet is going to fold out a better hand or get called by a worse hand.
Are we ever making this Bluff in this spot. Quote
05-25-2019 , 01:38 PM
Horrible flop.. the turn and river are not any better either.. I check back / give up. As played, check back turn and try to get to show down..

I haven’t seen the results, but i guess this was a donation. You have a few hundred hands on villain, and you may have seen him fold on the odd occasion, but emptying the clip on such boards is burning money.. save it to take him on a trip to value town later.
Are we ever making this Bluff in this spot. Quote
05-25-2019 , 01:52 PM
Definitely checking that flop. Every lesson in ABC c-betting says that. If checked to on the turn ok to probe bet with double gutter and overs and can call a turn bet IP after picking up equity. River folding to any bet. Hoping to showdown the best hand but no worse hand is betting there.

I'd note villain as sticky though. He is either a station or a soul reader calling a shove on such a wet river board there with middle pair.
Are we ever making this Bluff in this spot. Quote
06-05-2019 , 04:00 PM
Most of what has been said seems to be specifically referring to winning at showdown. And most if not all advice from that perspective is correct. As for bluffing here...

Some people seem to think that bluffing simply means opening/3! pre and barrel each street and jam river. That's actually called "punting" not "bluffing". If you look at this hand from Villain's perspective, it kind of looks like you have an over-pair. If he wants to be mubsy, maybe it's JJ that slammed the turn. So, make a note of it, and next time you have JJ+ on this runout, do the same thing. Here's what you don't have:

x9, like close to ever. Unless you 3! bluffed pre and backed into it, then you're getting paid. Technically, I guess you could have 99 but that seems pretty optimistic pre.

"The flush, I can have the flush on the river..." I see this bluff over and over again. I'm not sure whether villains are just oblivious to it or what, but most of the time that I see this bet-bet-jam on flushed rivers... The jammer almost never has the flush (not to say they NEVER have it, but they definitely don't have it more than do have it). The flush on the river would be more believable if you checked back turn and raised/jammed river. Most villains find it more difficult to call off a raise on a flushed river.

You've seen villain fold before. How many of those times were on the river to less than a psb after calling flop and turn?

Most importantly, sometimes we give villains too much credit. He may be one of those open mouth type guys who think that because you bet before the J and the flush got there that you couldn't have either of those holdings... In other words, you can't bluff a donk. But you can surely get broke trying. YMMV
Are we ever making this Bluff in this spot. Quote

      
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