MP: 100 BB
CO: 220.04 BB (VPIP: 49.38, PFR: 2.47, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 81)
BTN: 107.56 BB (VPIP: 23.81, PFR: 17.86, 3Bet Preflop: 6.90, Hands: 85)
Hero (SB): 247.8 BB
BB: 33.76 BB (VPIP: 18.67, PFR: 2.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 75)
UTG: 130.08 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 45)
UTG+1: 25.24 BB (VPIP: 19.70, PFR: 6.06, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 66)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, MP posts penalty blind 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has J J

fold, fold, MP checks, CO calls 1 BB, BTN calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 6 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 5 BB, BTN calls 5 BB

Flop: (20 BB, 3 players) 2 7 8
Hero bets 14 BB, CO calls 14 BB, BTN raises to 42 BB



As far as I can tell, V hasn't been out of line. PT auto notes are, "3Bet range {KTs}" and "Called 3Bets out of position with {KJs}". That's about all the read I have on him. Other V in hand is huge passive fish. Never raises, calls everything on flop, folds all turns not hit.

Feels like tough spot. Certainty can be bluffs in V's overlimping range, mainly straight draws, but he should have 78s and 22 here. I would think 77 and 88 raise preflop. Also, running through my mind is would V raise here knowing he's getting called from other V high % of time?

i think having an overpair here is a tough spot. i agree 77 and 88 would probably have opened pre, so his value raise range here is 78 & 22. however, after one caller on this board i would assume 2 pair or a set often just calls, planning to shove the turn hoping other players catch up and are getting better pot odds to make a call with worse. i don’t see a raise for value in his position working very often since you will often be betting with over cards, and even on scary cards like a 9 or maybe a T he still has significant equity to improve if either you or the other caller were on a draw.

with overpairs here, i think JJ+ id probably shove after his raise and hands like 99 or TT are folds since they’d block his semi bluffs like T9, T7, 98, 76. by flat calling the money is getting all in on the turn anyway since he will only be left with just about a pot sized shove.

my only last thing to say would be i might check/call this flop or bet small like 1/3 pot since it doesn’t often hit my range and i’d want to keep worse hands, like a random 8 or 7 involved and charge random over cards if they plan to float.

my thoughts, would love others input!

Yes its a tough spot, but on a dry board you think with a set he will raise ?. I dont think so, think if you had the set here you would raise? no make sense.

So for me he has some draw, maybe a 2pair.

@duckyfAL. I think what your missing in saying he wouldn't raise here with set is the fact that A) V in CO is super loose as I stated, thus driving less incentive to bluff and more to raise value hands, B) Its not about what I would do here with set, its about what V will do.

on point 2) im agree.

The funny part is you post hands, expecting to get evaluate, and when someone do it, you are against him. This is poker, if you are so sure about your hand why you post it ?.

That many small stakes players have this irrational desire to slowplay and deceive and then project that behaviour onto others is the reason to raise sets.

Hero bet 70% pot on a dynamic board, what exactly is vill waiting for to raise sets? Hope he has AK, hit gin then keeps barrelling? Blasts off his stack with air? 70% is likely imbalanced towards overpairs exactly like JJ so I want to get the money in now before he changes his mind on several runouts.

If you want to rule out hands, start by ruling out 99 and TT which almost certainly never limp behind.

This is a fold.

I think you do not grasp the concept of this thread. It is not to blindly take ones advice and move one, pp post to get different angles of reasons to X vs. Y and so on.

Some post stuff that make sense and that are rational and thats how you have "ah ha" moments and learn and get better. But sometimes, stuff posted is just plain wrong or incorrect or at least perceived to be incorrect way of thinking of the hand.

Even those criticizing the OP need to be criticized. The whole pt here is for everyone to learn. Thats why we come on here. I or anyone OP need to always be critical of all posts so we can all learn.

Its not that I am against. I want to find what is ultimately the right answer. If you can't handle that, you should avoid posting on 2+2.

^ Excellent post and an issue I have had in the past.