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Top set on a wet flop, too nitty to fold the turn? 5NL Top set on a wet flop, too nitty to fold the turn? 5NL
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02-22-2018 , 09:32 PM
#1
fghexe
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enthusiast
Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 51
UTG1 is a fish with stats 37/4 agg 3.9 over 169 hands

a very common spot with a fish when they draw their hands
the fish looks like passive and tbh I don't see lots of hands that I might be ahead of on the turn. So is it still +EV calling the turn in the spot in the long run?

SB: $6.68 (133.6 bb)
BB: $5.27 (105.4 bb)
UTG+1: $5.92 (118.4 bb)
Hero (UTG+2): $5 (100 bb)
MP1: $8.92 (178.4 bb)
MP2: $11.86 (237.2 bb)
MP3: $8.98 (179.6 bb)
CO: $5 (100 bb)
BTN: $5 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with K K
UTG+1 calls $0.05, Hero raises to $0.30, 7 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.25

Flop: ($0.67) J 3 K (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $0.32, Hero raises to $1.25, UTG+1 calls $0.93

Turn: ($3.17) 8 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $4.37

Hero?
Top set on a wet flop, too nitty to fold the turn? 5NL Quote
02-23-2018 , 12:25 AM
#2
JFTIII
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centurion
Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 152
Tough situation, but I think it's a fold -- not sure if I could do it, but, without a read, a fold seems like the most +EV. I expect to see something like 7d6d at showdown -- he doesn't want another card and appears to be scared of your Ad.
Top set on a wet flop, too nitty to fold the turn? 5NL Quote
02-23-2018 , 10:07 AM
#3
fghexe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JFTIII
Tough situation, but I think it's a fold -- not sure if I could do it, but, without a read, a fold seems like the most +EV. I expect to see something like 7d6d at showdown -- he doesn't want another card and appears to be scared of your Ad.
Thanks for the comment. It's very helpful indeed. I wonder how would you play the hand if let's say you were oop and just got your 2/3 bets called on the flop and turn so you reached the river with the pot of approx 4$ and effective stack of 3$ and the river brought a brick?

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Top set on a wet flop, too nitty to fold the turn? 5NL Quote
02-24-2018 , 03:05 AM
#4
JFTIII
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centurion
Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 152
In your scenario, if this particular V is Cing both those Bs, I've got alarm bells going off. 1) the flush on board doesn't seem to scare the V and 2) the V has a high Agg and has just Cd twice. So, I like making a blocking B of $0.75 with the intention of Fing to a R.

A 2nd option would be to chk - evaluate, but I don't like it as much since it will draw out more bluffs and give me the impression I need to C them.
Top set on a wet flop, too nitty to fold the turn? 5NL Quote
02-26-2018 , 04:11 PM
#5
alexbrasile
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centurion
Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 172
It's unlikely the villain hit the flush ott because he leads it. If he wants you in the pot with his flush, why would he overbet the pot just to send you off? It doesn't make sense.
I'd call. We still have 20% of chance to beat him otr if he does have the flush. We need to win 40% of the time and he might have many hands we beat such as two pair or a lower set.
Top set on a wet flop, too nitty to fold the turn? 5NL Quote
02-27-2018 , 04:33 PM
#6
fghexe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JFTIII
In your scenario, if this particular V is Cing both those Bs, I've got alarm bells going off. 1) the flush on board doesn't seem to scare the V and 2) the V has a high Agg and has just Cd twice. So, I like making a blocking B of $0.75 with the intention of Fing to a R.

A 2nd option would be to chk - evaluate, but I don't like it as much since it will draw out more bluffs and give me the impression I need to C them.
thank you. interesting points
Top set on a wet flop, too nitty to fold the turn? 5NL Quote
02-27-2018 , 05:01 PM
#7
fghexe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alexbrasile
It's unlikely the villain hit the flush ott because he leads it. If he wants you in the pot with his flush, why would he overbet the pot just to send you off? It doesn't make sense.
I'd call. We still have 20% of chance to beat him otr if he does have the flush. We need to win 40% of the time and he might have many hands we beat such as two pair or a lower set.
The maths says the same. The most realistic hands we beat outweigh ones we are behind. K8, J8 or 88 (33, JJ, KJ wouldda been raised on the flop imho) which altogether make up 21 combos and we are underdog of 23d, 34d, 45d, 56d, 67d, 79d, 9Td, 9Qd, TQd (excluding Axd as they are likely to be just bets and not shoves) which make up barely 9. So we are favorite 70%. I guess it's supposed to be a call anyway
Top set on a wet flop, too nitty to fold the turn? 5NL Quote
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