.15/.3 NLHE 6max (i apologize in advance for spelling/punctuation/capitalization errors ahead of time since i’m posting this from my phone)

UTG opens to .9, utg +1 calls, all folds i’m in B.B. with KdTs i call. The flop comes Ks7s4h, i check, PFA bets 1.8$, utg+1 calls, i raise 5.5$, pfa folds, utg+1 calls. turn is 5c, i bet half pot for ~7.5$, utg+1 jams for 22$ effective.

my thought process while considering the call is as such:

if villain had a better king he’d either have reraised pre, reraise the flop himself, or if he didn’t do either of those things he’d just call my turn bet. i feel like the line that he took narrowed his range heavily to:

a2 a3 a4 a5 56 of spades as semi bluff combos (5 combos)

AND

47s sometimes (1/3) 1
k7s sometimes (1/3) 1
77 2 (2/3)
44 2 (2/3)
68spades 1
as his value combos
(7 combos)
{i say ‘sometimes’ because he’d have to have called pre flop from an UTG raise with that hand. i also only gave 2/3 combos of sets because i think some percent of the time he’s re raising my flop raise with a set since the flush draw on board is definitely part of my raising range, and a spade on a later street would either put him behind or kill his action when he’s ahead.

his equity against me with these hands

a2 31%
a3 38%
a4 29.5%
a5 29.5
56spades 45%

47s 81%
k7s 93%
77 0%
44 0%
68s 0%

so i have ~65-70% equity 5/12 times against his bluffs
and i have like 3% equity 7/12 times against his value


all of this exact(ish) math was done after the hand, but at the time in my head i believed to have between 30% equity against his entire shoving range. (i think i ended up having closer to 35% or so when i ran it on paper)


1. is this kind of thinking appropriate when determining when to call and when to fold?
2. is this a call or fold?