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too nitty or good fold?

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02-17-2018 , 05:44 PM

pokerbetts

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 342

I am trying to correct what I believe to be a leak of mine. I used to call this every time without fail but all to often I was getting stacked by sets.

with a sample of 200+ hands Villain has a 3bet freq of 2% (vpip16 pfr12).
I think that on this board and considering V's preflop play most of the time he has a set here. What do you think?

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 109.2 BB
UTG+1: 105 BB
Hero (MP): 100 BB
MP+1: 105 BB
MP+2: 100 BB
CO: 68.8 BB
BTN: 163.6 BB
SB: 183 BB
BB: 105.4 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, MP+1 calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 2.6 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (12 BB, 4 players) 4

SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 8.8 BB, MP+1 raises to 21 BB, fold, fold, fold,

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02-17-2018 , 06:31 PM

Brussels Sprout

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 1,783

Yeah I agree - good fold. 16/12 is a classic set-miner TAG. (You also block a few flush combos with your Qc)

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02-21-2018 , 08:38 PM

Gavlarrsafc

stranger

Join Date: Feb 2018 Posts: 1

It’s had to say whether he has a set or not, as there is a good chance he thinks you have two pictures and have missed that sort of flop. He also could be semi bluffing a flush draw I personally call and if no K or A or club on turn look to get it in.

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02-22-2018 , 09:53 AM

statoverflow

newbie

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 23

You have to call at least once, and maybe twice depending on the turn card. Yes, it's possible your opponent has a set here. But there are also flush draws, combo draws, and maybe even a hand like 8-8 for protection. If you fold here, you have very few hands in your range that you're calling. Your hand also plays better across future streets since it has a club in it (even if you do block some FD semi-bluffs)

Turns I would fold include the 2c and 7c, and any 3, 5, A, or K. It's unfortunate that we're so overpair heavy when we bet/call the flop, but that's how it goes sometimes.

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02-22-2018 , 09:07 PM

pokerbetts

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 342

Quote:

Originally Posted by statoverflow

Villain has a 2% 3bet stat and he is 16/12 I doubt he is 3betting 8-8 ...ever...unless there's at least one 8 on the board, no?

Would you explain why you would fold specifically to the 2c and 7c Stat?

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02-23-2018 , 03:50 AM

Brussels Sprout

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 1,783

That's a postflop raise not a 3bet for what it's worth so don't fall in love with that stat.

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02-25-2018 , 02:41 AM

52carte

stranger

Join Date: Feb 2018 Posts: 9

its a nit fold imo, if you fold QQ im curious which part of your range you're continuing with? i think you have to call at least once here

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02-25-2018 , 11:30 AM

Bonzo

centurion

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 174

You can't possibly fold this. If you are folding because you fear a set you are only continuing 44 and 66 (you presumably fold 22 because he has a bigger set right?). You probably don't have 53s in your range from this position, so folding almost everything- mega exploitable.

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02-26-2018 , 11:57 AM

alexbrasile

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 172

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gavlarrsafc

This kind of thought are far to be common in low stakes. People don't have this advanced way of thinking.

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