TAG reg raises my turn donk bet, which I hoped for. Now, is 4b shoving here overplaying my hand? He almost certainly would fold AK, and only call sets + possibly AQdd/ATdd. His WTSD is 24.7%, W$SD 50%, so he's not calling AI with 1 pair hands to a turn 4b.

Thoughts?

NL Holdem $0.1(BB)
UTG ($8.4) [VPIP: 16.2% | PFR: 6.1% | AGG: 28% | 3-Bet: 4.2% | Hands: 2491]
EP ($5.54) [VPIP: 12% | PFR: 5.9% | AGG: 27.8% | 3-Bet: 2.5% | Hands: 33215]
MP1 ($9.42) [VPIP: 18.2% | PFR: 10.4% | AGG: 34.1% | 3-Bet: 4.7% | Hands: 11162]
MP2 ($11.72) [VPIP: 19% | PFR: 14.2% | AGG: 33.1% | 3-Bet: 4.7% | Hands: 32234]
HJ ($12.66) [VPIP: 17.8% | PFR: 14.5% | AGG: 35.5% | 3-Bet: 3.5% | Hands: 82691]
CO ($4.3) [VPIP: 13.1% | PFR: 3.7% | AGG: 22.4% | 3-Bet: 4.3% | Hands: 2473]
BTN ($14.01) [VPIP: 20% | PFR: 11.3% | AGG: 31.2% | 3-Bet: 5.3% | Hands: 5141]
SB ($13.24) [VPIP: 35.6% | PFR: 13.6% | AGG: 32.4% | 3-Bet: 2.2% | Hands: 675]
HERO ($15.26) [VPIP: 18.1% | PFR: 13.9% | AGG: 36% | 3-Bet: 5.6% | Hands: 144945]

Dealt to Hero: K J

UTG Folds, EP Folds, MP1 Folds, MP2 Folds, HJ Raises To $0.35, CO Folds, BTN Calls $0.35, SB Calls $0.30, HERO Calls $0.25

Hero SPR on Flop: [8.79 effective]
Flop ($1.40): K 6 J
SB Checks, HERO Bets $0.66 (Rem. Stack: 14.25), HJ Calls $0.66 (Rem. Stack: 11.65), BTN Folds, SB Folds

Turn ($2.72): K 6 J 3
HERO Bets $1.28 (Rem. Stack: 12.97), HJ Raises To $3.26 (Rem. Stack: 8.39), HERO Calls $1.98 (Rem. Stack: 10.99)

x/r flop gets more money in than your 1/2p
same with x/r turn, ap call

I can see that, but how often is he sticking around with hands I beat if I c/r, in which case I only get a 1/2-2/3 psb bet from him anyway? If you think he will raise you IP here do you still go for c/r?

0 reason for you to expect he will raise a 1/2p turn bet
or larger or smaller for that matter, you can't know that

otf he will continue wide to your x/r, not to mention btn has a chance to stab as well

ott, he will continue with roughly the same hands he bets when you x to him, possibly a bit tighter but a few % of his range won't matter

anyway, the idea is the preflop defender has little incentive to donk into a board that favors the pf aggressor
you can't have AA/KK/JJ because of pre action, he can

Then with what you know so far, would you c/r here ~always? If you had reads that suggested villain likes to raise does it ever change your line?

Wouldn't donking into the strongest part of his perceived range with a value hand be the RIGHT thing to do at times?

a read like that would take thousands of hands played with the guy and it would be very specific to you
how often do you think the guy opens in ep, sees a flop 4 way, has someone donk 1/2p twice into him on a K high board, sticks around on the flop and then decides to raise turn?

the problem is he reps stronger than top 2 when he raises turn
fortunately your top 2 block some of his top 2 sets, which is why I think you should call ap and be prepared to fold to a big river bet unimproved

also gutshots and open-enders don't raise turn

I do have thousands of hands on him, and he did raise turn with QTo, OESD.

But I see where you are coming from for sure

well then make a valuable note
however, this isn't a "strategy" you can replicate with other opp as it's not a common line people take. also it's really bad on his part, you don't bluff with hands that can call a small bet ip and that have blockers to draws you want your opponent to be betting

and I think you underestimate how light people will call x/r, even double x/r

honestly if you face calling stations and you want to donk, just pot it, they won't be folding that much more

I agree he shouldn't raise turn, + since I don't donk often he should expect it to be value heavy.

I'll give x/r more consideration in those spots and evaluate

Why did you donk the flop? You cost yourself money. You could have xred the HJ bet. Then you bet out ott.