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Should I bluff this river? Deep 1-2 game Should I bluff this river? Deep 1-2 game

03-04-2021 , 12:34 PM
We are playing 8- handed 1/2 NLH, the game is WILD, plays big and people are straddling most of the time. The game is played on the app "Pokerbros". As far as i know there is no way of converting the hand from the app in another way than manually writing it.

Background info on villain: Vpip 26, PFR 12, Fold to 3-bet 42 (600+ hands)

Straddle is on and it folds to Villain (556$) in the HJ, He raises to 12. It folds to me on the BTN (647$) with Td8d, I raise to 40. Everyone folds besides villain who makes the call.

Flop (87):
4d 4h 2d

Villain checks (515), Hero (607) bets 30
Villain calls

Turn (147):
4d 4h 2d As

Villain (485) checks, Hero (577) bets 180
Villain calls

River (507):
4d 4h 2d As Kh

Villain (305) checks, Hero (397 ) checks back

My thought-process throughout the hand:
Preflop I was thinking that since villain is folding 40% to 3-bets we should 3-bet wider than we usually do. We are also super deep, playing in position.

On the flop I think we have a mandatory c-bet. I was thinking that my small sizing is good on this kind of texture because we have a range advantage. He is going to have to fold some amount of hands we are behind.

On the turn we see a non-completing flush A. I am in the moment thinking that this totally smashes our range decided to go for the overbet. Our opponent does should not have many combos of AK or AQ and when we do have AK or AQ ourselves we have the opportunity to play for stacks on the river on good run-outs. He is going to be in a though spot with pretty much 100% of his hands in my opinion and has to fold a ton of his hands that is ahead.

On the river we see a K, flush did not come in and if villain has an A, which I think he does a lot of the time when he calls the overbet OTT. I do not think he is ever folding an A because he is now playing with a K kicker. We also only has 305$ left in his stack, In my opinion villain will often get sticky OTR and call off with the price he will be getting.

I am very much open to other thoughts and appreciate any responses. It has taken me quite some time to put this in manually, but I really thought this hand has a lot of interesting elements to it.
Should I bluff this river? Deep 1-2 game Quote
03-04-2021 , 12:58 PM
I think a 3/4 pot bet on the turn would have achieved the same aims whilst risking less $, but agree with the rest of your play.

Calling the turn narrowed the villain's range substantially, and the only hands I see him folding if you did shove the river are busted flush draws that don't include Ad / Kd which seems very slim.
Should I bluff this river? Deep 1-2 game Quote
03-05-2021 , 05:45 AM
What's up Kriss, I like all of your analysis. You seem like a good player.

I love the pre-flop raise. It is so hard to play heads up against the button as the out of position caller when the B 3 bets. When you are making this play though, you have to keep in mind ........ it is a bluff. You want the guy to fold right now or check fold the flop.

This player calls 3 bets 60% of the time, meaning he is a little unbalanced toward overcalling versus 3 bets, which actually is fine because he is likely to find himself in a situation where he has to check fold the flop, and you earn even more money.

Another thing about this opponent is that preflop, he is loose-passive. 26/12 is not tight and it is not aggressive. I think that when people are more passive pre-flop, then that personality carries over to their post flop play, and vice versa. Passive players are cautious. So post-flop, what is he continuing with? Cautious players aren't the types to call all the way down with nothing.

When he calls your 3 bet and calls your cbet on the flop, your bluff did not work. That's ok. Bluffs don't always work.

The Turn puts a scare card on the board. I like the double barrel here. Good bet. But that also is a bluff and this bluff also doesn't work.

You are playing with massive stacks. I don't think it is wise to triple barrel bluff 650 big blinds away against a cautious opponent who is playing sticky sticky sticky.

GL, Magnum
Should I bluff this river? Deep 1-2 game Quote
03-17-2021 , 07:47 AM
I also like the play pre.
I'd probably bet bigger on the flop. I don't think the downbet folds out much and we only have T high. Maybe something like 55-65 will put a bunch of their hands in a tougher spot. Plus we get more money in when we are value betting.
If they call we're looking at a pot around 210 with 455 eff behind. Then I think you can double barrel bluff this card with more success cheaper at around a 1/2 pot bet or check back to bet the river.
As played I think the give up on the river is correct. I think they have too many hands in range that can call down.



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Should I bluff this river? Deep 1-2 game Quote

      
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