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River flush, decision facing raise? River flush, decision facing raise?

10-03-2017 , 12:36 PM
Online 9 handed 0.50c/$1

Starting $133 deep effective vs villian. I have 160 hands on villian showing 16, 10, 45 so pretty straight forward player.

Folds to me at HJ with K J
I rasie to $3, CO and BTN call, blinds fold.

Flop: 8 4 8 ($10.50)

I decide to cbet $3.72, CO folds, BTN calls

Turn: 8 4 8 10 ($17.94)

Picking up K high flush draw i bet $9.12, BTN calls

River: 8 4 8 10 5 ($36.18)

I make K high flush and bet $18.92 for value. Villian now raises to $68. Decision here?

Comments please on the hand, what you would do, and possible value/bluff holdings of villian, will let you know what i did later.
thanks
River flush, decision facing raise? Quote
10-03-2017 , 01:30 PM
A 16/10 is probably going to have all the pocket pairs from 22-1010 in his calling range as well as some of the higher suited connectors. Since he was on button and there was already a caller he probably has a few Axs here too.

Your c-bet is so small he's likely to call with a lot of that range just to see if you give up on the turn. The turn call is more telling. I'd expect the nuttier parts of his range to stick in a raise at this point in an effort to bump up the pot. There's a flush draw out there now that could potentially kill his river action. Something like 98 or 87 would probably also raise here as a form of protection.

I think the second call leans it more toward his middling pocket pairs and his own flush draws.

River: How many 16/10's overbet the pot on the river as a bluff? To be honest I don't even see him doing this with his nut flushes since he'll be very much aware that there are possible full houses out there. I think you're beat. I'd still probably end up calling though out of sheer curiosity and beat myself up over it afterwards.
River flush, decision facing raise? Quote
10-10-2017 , 01:51 PM
River fold imo, unless you have a more specific read on villain
River flush, decision facing raise? Quote
10-11-2017 , 05:47 AM
Flop c-bet is too small which makes it a little more difficult since he calls with a really wide range here, but I think we have to give him credit for a slowplayed FH on the river - raising a triple barrel as a bluff when a flush has just made wouldn't really happen too often at all, and his range is full of pairs that have made into full houses.

The only hands he plays like this that we are ahead of are the 8x hands that haven't made a boat, of which I only think he would really be flatting 98 and *maybe* J8 pre.
River flush, decision facing raise? Quote

      
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