Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 493
I don't think it's s good call pre for reasons stated as the SPR is only 1.8. For the same reason I don't think it makes for a good bluff spot.
Do you have any more info on V?
Think about possible weak play, stats and showdowns? The more info the more capable we are of narrowing down a pre flop range.
There's some faulty logic here too. The only reason to bluff is to get better hands to fold, believing he has a large enough portion that he will. If you bet to get him to fold some pairs (there's only 9's that might ever muck generally) that your behind. He's simply not folding JJ+. And you are a favourite against over cards. So overall you're trying to fold out hands that you want to continue 55-66-77 ak, aq, kq and keeping in the part of his range that crushes you.
So turning 8's into a bluff here is incorrect.
But let's just say his 3bet range is;
22+, A5s+, K9s+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo
In this scenario he's a fish/rec player who watches a bit of poker, might have read an article or two. But generally doesn't have the knowledge of when to 3bet or keep positions in mind etc.
You have 55% against this guy pre. On the flop you have roughly the same.
You actually have S/D value but it's vulnerable. However there are very limited reverse implied odds. This is due to the SPR which in turn would mean he technically should call any shove with almost any equity. But he's a rec so he doesn't know to do that, a lot of recs naturally will stack of any two overs plus pairs there through instinct though "ah **** it the pots so big and I only have this left.." this is doubly true after his Cbet.
He's either made a terrible 3bet play with a short stack or he's terrible full stop.
So against that range given effective stack I'd actually just call. You're either miles ahead or miles behind. By betting he sheds the weaker part of his range but by calling you keep his bluffs in. If he has two overs he has 5 outs and you're 80% or an under pair ever with 2 outs (and not going anywhere either way).
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Last edited by Gabe16; 08-09-2017 at 02:42 AM.